Getting asked when will Omicron peak in the US?
My best guess?
I think we are there
We are seeing a little bumpiness in the data because of MLK day holiday
But evidence says as a nation, we have likely peaked
Big states: CA, FL, and NY have peaked. May be even Texas
Thread
My best guess?
I think we are there
We are seeing a little bumpiness in the data because of MLK day holiday
But evidence says as a nation, we have likely peaked
Big states: CA, FL, and NY have peaked. May be even Texas
Thread
Beyond peak, there are two surprises worth discussing
First, I said few days ago that I expected hospitalizations to rise a while longer
Turns out, not so much
Hospitalizations have flattened nationally and are declining in places like NY
Why? What did I get wrong?
2/4
First, I said few days ago that I expected hospitalizations to rise a while longer
Turns out, not so much
Hospitalizations have flattened nationally and are declining in places like NY
Why? What did I get wrong?
2/4
The reason my guess on hospitalizations may have been too pessimistic?
In previous surges, cases caused hospitalizations and folks stayed in hospital for a while
With Omicron, fewer hospitalizations
And Omicron hospitalizations are, on average, much shorter
That's good!
3/6
In previous surges, cases caused hospitalizations and folks stayed in hospital for a while
With Omicron, fewer hospitalizations
And Omicron hospitalizations are, on average, much shorter
That's good!
3/6
And one more surprise? Lower than expected deaths
Cases increased nearly 400% from Dec 1 to Dec 31
By now, you might expect to see 3-4 fold increase in deaths from a month ago
So what are we seeing?
Small increases (see below)
Thank goodness
Why?
4/6
Cases increased nearly 400% from Dec 1 to Dec 31
By now, you might expect to see 3-4 fold increase in deaths from a month ago
So what are we seeing?
Small increases (see below)
Thank goodness
Why?
4/6
Why have we (thankfully) not seen massive spike in deaths?
1 Omicron is less virulent
2 We have lots of population immunity
Lets be clear: 2,000 deaths a day still awful
But had Omicron been Delta and had we had fewer vaccinations
We'd be seeing 8,000 deaths/day, may be more
1 Omicron is less virulent
2 We have lots of population immunity
Lets be clear: 2,000 deaths a day still awful
But had Omicron been Delta and had we had fewer vaccinations
We'd be seeing 8,000 deaths/day, may be more
So here's the bottom line:
Some places in the US still rising but others falling
And nationally, we have likely peaked
When this is surge is done, 30-40% of Americans likely will have been infected
That's a lot!
6/7
Some places in the US still rising but others falling
And nationally, we have likely peaked
When this is surge is done, 30-40% of Americans likely will have been infected
That's a lot!
6/7
But there's hope
Hospitalizations should decline soon
Deaths may rise some but should turn down in next week or two
And as Omicron surge ebbs
And life returns back to more of a normal
Let's use that time to prepare to more effectively manage future variants and surges
End
Hospitalizations should decline soon
Deaths may rise some but should turn down in next week or two
And as Omicron surge ebbs
And life returns back to more of a normal
Let's use that time to prepare to more effectively manage future variants and surges
End
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