Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 21, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Last week, I asked: What's the most incredible, statistical-outlier accomplishment in U.S. major sports history?

I got several thousand responses. Here are my top 10.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
10. The 2010 San Diego Chargers

As far as I know, only one team in professional sports history has finished 1st in offense, 1st in defense, and also missed the playoffs.
9. Bob Beamon's record-breaking long jump in the 1968 Olympics.

Hard to think of another sports achievement so outlierish that officials had to stop the game to figure out WTF just happened and the player, upon learning of the record, was so shocked that he suffered a seizure
8. Shohei Ohtani's 2021 season

People compare Ohtani to a modern Babe Ruth. But what Ohtani did was even stranger and more outlandish than anything Ruth accomplished in a single season.
7. Barry Bonds' 2001-2004 statistics

Yes, I know, he was on all of the steroids. But his intentional walk records—read to the bottom of this screenshot!—are still some of the most ludicrous things to ever happen in sports.
6. Cy Young’s wins and complete games records

Cy threw 749 complete games. No current pitcher has thrown 4+ since 2018. It would take a modern ace more years of peak performance to break Cy's CG record than the total number of years that baseball has existed.
5. Nolan Ryan

He played forever, struck out everybody, and walked everybody else.
4. Tiger Woods' 1997-2013 run

Tiger Woods is the only player in modern history to win all four majors in a row and the only player to win any major by 10 or more strokes. In fact, he did that twice: in the 1997 Masters and 2000 U.S. Open.
3. Babe Ruth's 1920s statistics don't make any sense.

In two different years, he hit more home runs than any other team. That’s just stupid.
2. Tied for second, we have Wilt Chamberlain's insane 1960s stats and Bill Russell's untouchable 1960s championship run.

Sorry for all the words. There are just ... a lot of totally untouchable records here.
1. This is it.

The most statistically impressive record in US sports history.

Wayne Gretzky—the NHL’s all-time leader in goals, assists, and points—has so many more assists than No. 2 that if he never scored a goal in his entire career, he’d still be all-time leader in points.
A Tom Brady stat for the road:

“The NFL record for career completions is 67.8%. Brady has made the conference championship 73.7% of starting seasons. Brady makes the conference championship at a higher rate than any QB completes passes.” @RealAlexBarth

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Addendum:

To everybody pointing out that Gretzky is a Canadian who set some of these records for a Canadian team: Correct!

Perhaps I should say this is a list of statistical achievements by Americans or for organizations currently headquartered in the U.S. :)

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More from @DKThomp

Nov 7
For the first time since WWII, every governing party facing election in a developed country this year lost vote share, via @jburnmurdoch

2024 Democrats are the red dot.

Absolutely critical context to any postmortem. Image
“This has been a year of global anti-incumbency within a century of American anti-incumbency.” Image
Let’s not make context the enemy of agency.

I think Dems made substantive errors (esp in urban governance) and strategic errors (running Biden).

But way too much postmortem analysis is all “Democratic ads in Michigan should said …” suggestions and too little context.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6
My big-picture explanation for Trump’s crushing victory is this:

This wasn’t the 1st post-pandemic election. It was the 2nd COVID presidential election.

You can’t explain Trump’s across-the-board romp without seeing the ways—obvious and subtle—that the pandemic haunted 2024 Image
1. Inflation was *a part of* the pandemic.

That is, the economic emergency was as global as the health emergency, and nearly as contagious. But while many voters forgave their leaders for COVID, they blamed their leaders for inflation, making this a horrendous year for incumbents worldwide.

Did Harris underperform. I don't think so. Her performance was total normal, adjusted for Biden’s popularity in a year of global anti-incumbency.Image
2. I think the 2024 election was, for many, an opportunity to protest the perception of pandemic-era excesses.

I don’t think I have as good a grasp on the significance of cultural changes in America—eg, claims of blue states upending society; or Biden admin attempts to regulate speech for public health reasons; or the salience of trans rights to conservative voters. But I think my frame—2024 was the 2nd COVID election— could easily extend to the cultural realm, too.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
I wrote about the urban family exodus.

America's biggest and richest cities are losing children at an alarming rate.

From 2020 to 2023, the number of kids under 5 declined by
- almost 20% in NYC
- about 15% in LA, SF, Chicago, and St Louis
- >10% in NoLA, Philly, Honolulu Image
This exodus is not merely the result of past COVID waves.

Even at the slower rate of out-migration since 2021, several counties—Manhattan, Brooklyn, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco—are on pace to lose 50% of their under-5 child population by the mid-2040s. Insane. Image
Progressives have a family problem.

It's not the "childless cat lady" problem that Vance etc want to talk about. It's an urban policy.

Progressives preside over counties that young families are leaving. And that's bad.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Read 5 tweets
May 21
All optimism is local.

1. New Fed survey: 72% of Americans say their own finances are "doing at least okay" ... but just 22% say the national economy is good

2. In all 7 swing states, majority say (a) their state’s economy is good, and (b) the nat'l economy is bad
Image
Image
"Everything is terrible but I'm fine" has a lot of parts to it.

But one part of it is ppl have direct experience of their own life but draw impressions of the world from media, which is negative-biased and getting more negative over time.

Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
Homicides are plummeting.

In all 10 cities with the most 2023 homicides—for which we have data—homicides are falling. The pandemic crime wave is crashing hard.

If these percentage decline numbers were percentage growth numbers, it would be the lede of every cable news show—> Image
Memphis homicides this year have declined 3% on an annualized basis


Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 9
New pod: The 4 dark laws of online engagement, according to psychologist @jayvanbavel

1. Negativity bias drives headline clicks
2. Extreme opinions drive in-group sharing
3. Out-group animosity drives engagement
4. "Moral-emotional" language goes viral

open.spotify.com/episode/5axHxi…
1. Negativity bias drives headline clicks

The most fundamental bias in news is not left, right, pro-corporate, or anti-tech. It's a bad toward catastrophic frames. An analysis of 105,000 different variations of news stories generating 5.7 million clicks found that "for a headline of average length, each additional negative word increased the click-through rate by 2.3%"Image
2. Extreme opinions drive in-group sharing

On Twitter, 97% of political posts on Twitter come from 10% of the most active users, and 90% of political opinions are represented by less than 3% of tweets. Because these users are disproportionately extreme, it creates a situation where the moderate middle, which might be dominant in corporeal reality, is absent online.Image
Read 6 tweets

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