Will Stancil Profile picture
Jan 23 4 tweets 1 min read
THERE IS NO PANACEA. Stop thinking there’s a panacea! That’s your problem! There are a bunch of things that help, some a little, some a lot, and with 13,000 people dying a week while hospitals get pulverized, they all have to be on the table.
There’s no easy one-button solution that will make the pandemic go away and allow you to stop thinking or caring about it. Trying to get everyone vaccinated is the best thing we can do but it’s not a magic cure-all for the nation.
This isn’t some movie where the hero scientist comes up with a cure and it resets to The Way Things Are Supposed to Be. Sometimes problems are big and tough and have to be ameliorated with hard sacrifice and even then can’t be fully avoided and may just change what “normal” is.
No one has a cosmic right to their life as it existed in 2015 or 2019 or whenever last felt normal. Things can fly off the rails, for totally unfair reasons, and just keep flying forever, until you’re dead and replaced by a generation that sees the off-the-rails world as normal.

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More from @whstancil

Jan 25
Guys, there is something wrong with David Leonhardt. For reference, the currently death average is 2,200 a day. Image
Here’s David Leonhardt in February, saying COVID is in retreat. Image
Here’s David Leonhardt in April, complaining about people’s “irrational COVID fears.” Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
Does anyone have halfway-decent data on what percentage of current COVID deaths and hospitalizations are vaccinated? I don't mean per-100,000 rates, I mean overall.
My suspicion, frankly, is that the per-100,000 rates you see everywhere are somewhat underplaying the scale of harm COVID is causing to vaccinated people, since there are so many more of them. But a hard number would be nice.
No, genius, I'm not remotely anti-vax. I think every unit of government and workplace in the country should mandate a full series of vaccinations. But conflating RATE and ABSOLUTE FREQUENCY of harms among the vaccinated is literally the base rate fallacy.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 23
A key distinction: it's OKAY if Dems from red states have some views that seem out-of-step with the liberal consensus. What doesn't make sense is arguing that the way to win tough states is to be generically "moderate," defined by being closer to the polling median on every issue
The voters in the middle, the ones Democrats need to win in red states, aren't voters who have average views. They're voters with DISORGANIZED views, which, if you aggregate them, LOOK average.
The ideological structure of the electorate (to the extent that it even matters in elections, which is unclear) is incredibly complicated, varying along many dimensions, and CANNOT BE ACCURATELY REPRESENTED ON A ONE-DIMENSIONAL IDEOLOGICAL SPECTRUM
Read 5 tweets
Jan 13
Basically just a broken record at this point, but the problem facing Democrats, most fundamentally, is that they're a gerontocracy
It's not just that the people in charge are old (but they are so, so old), it's that they THINK old. And by that I don't just mean that they're more conservative than they should be. It's that they're stuck in a version of America that no longer exists
They still envision America as a country dominated by Archie Bunker types (which it arguably was, in their youth), and think the key to politics is pandering to those Archie Bunker types. They still envision America as a place where liberals have to hide their views
Read 16 tweets
Jan 12
Pretty wild how our medical system is experiencing a historic meltdown and the main thing the political system is worried about is that any efforts to fix it will be perceived as annoying alarmism
As someone who has studied a lot of history, I've always been fascinated by how leaders could blunder into disasters that were evident in the moment, shielded by nothing but groupthink and conventional wisdom. Now we get to watch it happen in real time!
Again, stories like these are rocketing all over social media, and the surge is hitting every place in the country. You'd think the party that deeply believes its electoral fortunes are tied to health care would be a little more proactive.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 12
In polls, 75% of Americans say they wear a mask always or sometimes. Even if the real number is lower, you still reduce transmission by making it easier to mask, and using higher-quality masks. Acting like masks are only popular "on certain corners of Twitter" is outrageous.
Honestly, a perfect example of how liberal smugness cripples liberal politics. Too many DC Dems WANT to believe many or most Americans are simply unreachable mouth-breathers - it excuses their own failures, rationalizes inaction, and makes them feel superior, in a single stroke.
This isn't hard, there's a massive pandemic killing 12,000 people a week that's spreading through the air. Mail people masks because maybe it'll help. If it doesn't, points for trying.
Read 4 tweets

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