Tom Forth Profile picture
Jan 25, 2022 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Preparing some data for a thing. Astonishing. Image
I know what the answer is going to be. But then I see the answer and it's just even more.
Part of why Saxony outperformed South Yorkshire is EU spending. Much more happened in East Germany, in part because their economies were weaker. But it's actually not much money. German fiscal transfers were over 10 times greater. open-innovations.org/projects/jrf/e… ImageImage
In 2010, fiscal transfers into Saxony were,
approx. €2100/resident from Germany.
approx. €170/resident from the EU.
So while I think that EU regional development funding is a good thing, the EU is a government with a small budget compared to the states within it.
In 2010, fiscal transfers into Yorkshire were,
approx. €900/resident from the UK.
approx. €42/resident from the EU.
My guess is that transfers to Saxony have gone down. Transfers to Yorkshire are up. €1500/resident today. A decade of economic weakness is expensive.
Some different choices taken in/for Saxony & Yorkshire,
1/ High speed rail arrived in Saxony in 2015. Yorkshire? Cancelled in 2021.
2/ Saxony has over 750 tram stops. Yorkshire? 50.
3/ State spending on R&D in Saxony is €450/resident per year. Yorkshire? €150.
Make choices. Get results. imactivate.com/regionexplorer… Image
What does the state spending three times as much on R&D really mean though? It means that Dresden has research institutes of,
* urban drainage.
* solid state physics.
* (regrettably) block chain.
* ecology and sustainability.
And companies that start-up & hire from their talents. ImageImageImageImage
Of course Yorkshire has similar. Just as good, maybe even better, institutes. Like the AMRC in Sheffield. It's just got a lot fewer of them, because the state is spending a third as much money. Image
Listen to the @CentreforCities podcast with three German academics on what we can (and can't) learn from Germany's success at reintegrating its East. centreforcities.org/podcast/city-t…
ps. The UK government, after what feels like a decade of chatting about it, cancelled a new underground central railway station in Bradford -- a city about the size of Leipzig. "Too expensive" appaz.
.
.
Here's Leipzig's new underground central railway station. Opened in 2013. ImageImage
It's probably not even the specific decision. It's the cheems mindset of it all. The fact that the German government said "Leipzig is a great German city and it will succeed" and the UK government said "not sure about Bradford, maybe the benefits don't add up, let's be cautious".
So far, I've been blaming the UK government's lack of belief in the North for our underperformance. That's right but too easy. We've made local decisions that leave our economy weaker than Saxony too. We should change that if we think it's bad, or own it if we think that's good.
Specifically,
* Saxony has a lot more politicians than Yorkshire. It has a Parliament and it has elected Mayors.
* Saxony has focused growth much more in its big cities. Rural and small town population has fallen rapidly.
* Saxony pays higher taxes, including higher local taxes.

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More from @thomasforth

Oct 15
"Why Microsoft Excel won’t die" > because it has long been, and remains, the best piece of software ever written. I am always deeply sceptical of Excel haterz. economist.com/business/2024/…
Today I used Excel, with a colleague, to collaborate in real time. We checked 400 company to domain name matches together. Perfect synchronisation. Then we calculated the data that went into these graphs. Then we made the graphs. It all worked perfectly. Best software ever. Image
Yesterday I finished analysing the results of our economists survey in Excel. I made these graphs and diagrams in Excel. Just fantastic. I use Excel almost every day. From millions of rows to just a handful. Pivot tables to quick calculations. Best software ever. Amazing. Image
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Read 9 tweets
Sep 12
During Covid we massively boosted NHS funding. It remains high as a percentage of our economy. By some measures (read the article before you rage at me) we've got about 20% more staff delivering no more output. ifs.org.uk/articles/there…

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This isn't just an NHS thing. We've got similar stagnant productivity across much of the public and private sector. I focus in detail only on transport. Because no-one can focus on detail beyond a small sector. In transport we can see the inefficiency all around us if we look.
Just in Leeds, we've got,
* free roads that people pay for in time by sitting in traffic.
* short, diesel trains that run too frequently.
* buses that run off peak as frequently as in the peak.
* subsidies that push people off efficiency, big, fast trains onto slow buses.
* ,...
Read 15 tweets
Aug 8
As a Brit I accept that I don't have American style freedom of speech.
But I do have the freedom to hang my washing up outside, unlike most of you Americans with your HOA rules.
Gonna cross a road without mechanised permission later. Might even go wild and cross at the crossing while the man is red.
Some mocking replies suggesting my life is unliveable without air conditioning. "mostly cloudy, feels like 16ºC (61F)" is my midsummer life. The air requires no conditioning. My drink requires no ice. My eyes require no shade. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 22
I've written about the successes and failures of Scottish devolution and why it's so popular among Scots. tomforth.co.uk/unreasonablesu…
TLDR: it's the economy, stupid. Scotland has outperformed England's since devolution. The overperformance is particularly large in Scottish cities, which have broken out of the productivity trap English cities remain trapped in. Image
When devolution came into force, Scotland's economy was the same strength as the West Midlands. It has since grown twice as fast and overtaken East England. The underperformance of the West Midlands vs. Scotland is two to four Brexits in scale, but England doesn't seem to care. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 30
Lots of other good points. Wind farms, free tuition, democracy, etc... but I still think it's the economics that matters most. If Scotland's economy with devolution had performed as badly as Yorkshire's or the West Midlands I think there'd be calls to undo it.
Of course Scots don't track GDP numbers. But a society can feel it's prosperity. Scots have friends, family, and work in places like Newcastle, Sunderland, Leeds, Bradford, Birmingham, and Wolverhampton. They can feel their relative prosperity and success since devolution.
If Scotland's success is because of fiscal transfers then,... that's a reason to support a mechanism that retains those transfers.
.
But North England and the West Midlands are much bigger recipients of transfers within the UK. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 31
That Indian railway electrification number seems to check out. Coloured = electrified. Black = not electrified.
Image
Image
Here's the part of Europe with similar population density to North England vs. North England.
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Image
Denmark used to be the country that propped up the UK on rail electrification lists. Then they had a disastrous attempt to buy new diesel trains and realised that electrification was the sensible option. So they,... just did it. Two thirds done now. uk.bane.dk/en/Projects/El…
Read 5 tweets

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