In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote how it's not just inflation that will keep the Fed hiking. It's also that, unlike with past market downturns, there isn't an associated growth scare.
Part of the reason it seems like the Fed always rides to the rescue of the market, when it goes down, is that there's usually something else going on beyond merely the decline itself. With this latest swoon, that's not really there.
It really is incredible how narrow credit spreads are right now. They were higher in late 2021. They spiked way more in late 2018, as well as the 2015/2016 China stuff.
Often narrow credit are attributed to "liquidity" or "money printing" But the fact that the Fed has signaled its intent to pull back on this stuff, without some attendant move, it would indicate that there is some economic signal here.
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THE STOCK MARKET PARTY HAS BEEN ENDING FOR ALMOST A YEAR
In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about the pain in the market. It's getting a lot of attention now, but in reality it's been going on for almost a year.
Two year yields not doing much, so doesn't look like this report (so far) is expected to change the Fed's trajectory one way or another.
"The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise, advancing 3.5
percent in December after increasing 2.5 percent in each of the prior 2 months." bls.gov/news.release/c…
For the Odd Lots blog, I wrote about why @paradigm, with its deep technical expertise in DeFi market structure, is the perfect fit for today's deal. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
As we wait for the jobs report. Something to remember: there are a bunch of hints in various surveys and signals that the labor market is booming right now.
@tracyalloway@CoffeeNinjaRyan Here's a 5-year chart of arabica beans. You can see the price really taking off at the end of 2020, at the end of a multi-year bear market.
One thing I learned from talking to @CoffeeNinjaRyan is that in coffee trader lingo, playing the spread between Arabica - Robusta is called "the arb" (even though it's not actually an arb at all)