Thread by @joshzepps

Since my Joe Rogan "controversy", I’ve gone down a rabbit hole on myocarditis. I asked the Cardiac Society of Australia to put forward their best-informed cardiologist from a top hospital for a half-hour interview on my radio show.

My general view is that, as non-experts, we should defer to expert consensus. We shouldn’t seek out dissidents who confirm our biases, or trust random studies shared on twitter. We should be epistemically humble.

I chose a cardiology expert rather than an epidemiologist or an infectious disease specialist specifically so he'd be laser-focused on individual heart health, not on public health or universal vaccination.

He disputed the UK study that’s being shared a lot, suggesting higher-than-expected vaccine myocarditis rates. He said that one study does not negate the vast trove of data that shows vaccine-induced myocarditis is mild and rare.

Data out of Israel (where, unlike the UK, MRNA was the main vaccine) suggests that vaccine-induced myocarditis is caused by the spike protein. In that case, Covid would cause the same condition in the same person -- but more severely, attached to a fully-fledged living virus.

To be clear: whoever gets heart inflammation from Moderna would’ve almost certainly got it worse from Covid. The issue arises from the spike protein itself. That’s why we don’t see myocarditis from non-MRNA vaccines like Astra Zeneca.

Some say: Why not eliminate the risk altogether by using a non-MRNA vaccine in young males? Sure. Go for it. But as a general claim, the risk of a young person getting myocarditis from a vaccine is less than their getting it from a bout of Covid.

Getting sick from Covid also gives you a bunch of other nasties that a vaccine doesn't -- fatigue, anxiety, brain fog, respiratory problems, and the increased likelihood of transmitting the virus to others.

Some, like @Cernovich, have pointed out that vaccinated people can still catch Covid, so the vaccine risk is *in addition to* the Covid risk. This isn’t true, because you only get myocarditis from Covid if you get sick from the disease, not if you just test positive.

Because vaccines stop young people from getting really sick, vaccination slightly raises your risk of mild myocarditis from the vaccine but practically eliminates your risk of severe myocarditis from Covid. (Both risks are TINY, though)

I do think it’s vital that we all check our confirmation bias here. If we’re frustrated, angry, suspicious, and feeling let down by experts, we may give too much weight to outlier studies that buck the mainstream narrative. It’s our job, then, to check ourselves.

Lastly, some people have objected to my characterising certain internet warriors as “alt right”. I use that term simply to mean any fake-news-obsessed, anti-establishment troll who whips up followers with performative ourage.

Alt-right trolls aren’t all "right-wing" in a traditional Republican sense. They’re keyboard activists who care more about provoking than about seeking wisdom.

You don't need to accept this definition, but if you're going to dodge my punch, you need to disprove the actual behaviour.

(I did not, for the record, call @MaajidNawaz alt right. I said he didn’t fact-check certain activists he retweeted, as per below)

quillette.com/2021/12/07/out…

I’ve been the first to criticise Australian overreach. But there are degrees of inaccuracy on this issue, ranging from reckless manure-stirring, to people who are innocently baffled by incidents of police brutality that I, too, decry.

My invitation for @timcast to come on my podcast still stands. He declined. He instead invited me on his show, which I accepted. His producer then said I needed to appear in person, although I’m in Australia. My producer re-invited him on my show virtually. They didn't reply.

Call it alt right or call it snuffleupagus. All that matters is the substance. Who is up for having real conversations, and who’s just up for scoring points? Joe and I had a good-faith dialogue. I'd encourage all those who play the clickbait game to do the same.

If you’d like to hear the full interview with the Cardiac Society board member, it’s here:

abc.net.au/radio/sydney/p…