Will Stancil Profile picture
Jan 26 6 tweets 2 min read
I think politics makes more sense if you assume voters see money stuff as boring and don't really care about it the way nerds do
Some years I do better financially, other years I don't, on some level I understand this reflects public policy but emotionally it just processes like "the vicissitudes of life" and a pretty esoteric thing to vote on, instead of the sweeping moral narratives of partisan conflict
here's a clue that everyone misses: even among people who are strongly supportive of the child tax credit, the support is not because they want the money themselves, but because for them, the CTC is a values issue about protecting children that instills strong emotions!
the fundamental error is assuming that voters are somehow UNLIKE US, and their votes can be bought by a few hundred extra dollars that personally benefits themselves, rather than because they've been persuaded to emotionally invest in our moral narrative of the universe
politics is the business of using people's emotions to earn their support, and it's a real problem that we've turned it over to spreadsheet types

citation: I've met both real people and good politicians
I actually think it's possible to sell something like the CTC pretty well, the problem is that often Dems won't make an unapologetic moral case for it. The debate becomes "improve your finances" (emotionally inert) versus "free money for the undeserving" (emotionally evocative).

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More from @whstancil

Jan 27
"The economy is growing explosively but the president's approval is imploding" drives a freight train through every theory of politics that the Democrats and the media political class has used for 40 years, and they're responding by saying "Of COURSE he's unpopular, because X"
Our theory about what drives presidential approval is completely broken, we need a new one pronto, but most of the putative experts and practitioners are instead desperately adding epicycles: "It's still the economy, stupid, but 'the economy' specifically means gas prices"
Here's my proposal: what people think about Biden does not reflect what they already BELIEVE about his policy proposals, or what they are SEEING in their day-to-day lives, but mostly reflects what they are HEARING about him from each other and from the news
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
Chait’s not dumb, I assume he can understand how false equivalencies can advance terrible ideas. But he’s also, you might say, triggered by certain kinds of talk about race, and it blinds him to the obvious way that false equivalences have recruited him for a reactionary effort.
That fundamentally emotional response to certain racial interactions - the little shock of annoyance and anger at a perceived offense, combined with the dopamine hit of hitting back at the typically young-and-nonwhite groups who committed it - is the root of the wokeness panic.
It’s rationalized as fighting a threat to liberalism, but that’s how pretexts WORK. You can still see something is off because there’s an inability to keep things in proportion. You can tell people WANT to talk about this regardless of the scale of the actual threat.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 25
It's hard to get precise figures using public data, but as best as I can tell, even if you ignore all deaths among the unvaccinated, COVID would remain the fourth-leading cause of death in the US right now, far above things like the flu.
In other words, while COVID is certainly hitting the unvaccinated much harder than the vaccinated, it's a terrible folly to treat this as a problem that exists in a separate society made up of voluntarily unvaccinated people. It's hurting the whole of society.
The myth that the existence of vaccines means COVID is now a voluntary condition, only harming those who opted into it, is undercutting our ability to institute the kind of collective response we need - ironically, including vaccine mandates.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 25
Guys, there is something wrong with David Leonhardt. For reference, the currently death average is 2,200 a day. Image
Here’s David Leonhardt in February, saying COVID is in retreat. Image
Here’s David Leonhardt in April, complaining about people’s “irrational COVID fears.” Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 24
The immense spike in deaths is lagging the omicron spike by a lot. And this is a high-vax area, too. Places like where I grew up, with a 50% vaccination rate, risk devastation. God forbid anyone need a hospital there for the next month or two.
Faced with this looming catastrophe, our class of affluent liberal elites remains mostly fixated on finding ways to reduce their obligation to respond, or even arguing that we need to stop talking about it altogether, lest anyone feel a pang of worry or guilt.
And of course all the anti-mitigation arguments are slowly converging on a single principle: the people affected probably had it coming somehow. It's the same old excuse we use from everything from poverty to opioids to AIDS. The eternal excuse not to act.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 23
Does anyone have halfway-decent data on what percentage of current COVID deaths and hospitalizations are vaccinated? I don't mean per-100,000 rates, I mean overall.
My suspicion, frankly, is that the per-100,000 rates you see everywhere are somewhat underplaying the scale of harm COVID is causing to vaccinated people, since there are so many more of them. But a hard number would be nice.
No, genius, I'm not remotely anti-vax. I think every unit of government and workplace in the country should mandate a full series of vaccinations. But conflating RATE and ABSOLUTE FREQUENCY of harms among the vaccinated is literally the base rate fallacy.
Read 9 tweets

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