Thread by @NBCNews

President Biden thinks Russian President Putin will invade Ukraine. Here's why the West is so worried.

@NBCNews looks at what Putin might want from the standoff and how he could be planning to get it. #NBCNewsThreads (1/8) nbcnews.com/news/world/put…

Although Russia has denied its planning to attack the former Soviet state, Putin has issued several security demands that have been dismissed by the West, resulting in a diplomatic stalemate. (2/8)

The current standoff centers on Putin’s demands for security guarantees for Russia that would include a stop to NATO’s expansion eastward, a formal veto to stop Ukraine from ever joining the military alliance, and roll backs of NATO's military deployments in the region.​​ (3/8)

Putin’s prior statements on Ukraine’s history and statehood have given rise to a view among Russia observers that he sees Ukraine as “unfinished business” and wants to follow the seizure of Crimea with further action to bring the country back under Moscow’s influence. (4/8)

“Most public discussion of Russia’s demands has missed the point that what Russia is asking for is not security guarantees for itself, but the removal of security guarantees for much of Europe,” says Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the think tank Chatham House. (5/8)

Giles says the growing number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and now in Belarus has accomplished a Kremlin goal of “terrifying” the US and its allies into opening negotiations with Russia on the future security of Europe—a topic that “ought to be off the table.” (6/8)

Putin’s motivation could include a desire to shore up his base at home — a popular military victory as a way to distract from domestic problems.
Maintaining tension over Ukraine also helps Putin reinforce his image of a resolute defender of Russia’s interests at home. (7/8)

Experts and military analysts are divided on whether Putin intends to engage in a full-blown war with Ukraine.
A similar buildup unnerved the world last April, but resulted in a withdrawal of forces.
Still, some experts say a full-scale invasion is possible, even likely. (8/8)