1/Just for fun, let's go through the part of @RichardHanania's post where he talks about the likelihood of an insurgency in Ukraine, should Russia invade and seize the Eastern half of the country.
richardhanania.substack.com/p/russia-as-th…
richardhanania.substack.com/p/russia-as-th…
2/The overall theme of the post is standard conservative stuff -- liberals are obsessed with Russia and with LGBT, etc. etc. Not super interesting.
But then he asserts that Ukrainians wouldn't fight an insurgency, and that this means Russia will prevail in this confrontation.
But then he asserts that Ukrainians wouldn't fight an insurgency, and that this means Russia will prevail in this confrontation.
3/This argument -- Russia cares about Ukraine more than the U.S. does -- also applies to the USSR and Poland in the 80s. And yet Poland left Russia's orbit and joined the West.
What Poland wanted was more important than what the U.S. OR the USSR wanted.
What Poland wanted was more important than what the U.S. OR the USSR wanted.
4/Next, Hanania argues that an insurgency in Eastern Ukraine would be impossible because it's steppe; there's nowhere for rebels to hide.
5/But where did the insurgents in Iraq and Syria hide? Western Iraq and Eastern Syria are completely open and flat.
The insurgents hid in cities, towns, and villages.
The insurgents hid in cities, towns, and villages.
6/Then Hanania argues that Ukrainians won't be willing to fight an insurgency because their fertility is low.
7/But come on, man. Pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region of Ukraine have been fighting against the Ukrainian government for 7 years now! And Ukraine has been fighting them that whole time!
So much for that talking point.
So much for that talking point.
8/Finally, Hanania says that Ukrainians aren't willing to fight for American liberal ideals -- but then demolishes his own point when he notes that what they're actually fighting for is nationalism!
9/So every one of Hanania's points is just rubbish.
Ukrainians are fighting for nationalism, not for America or for liberalism. What Ukrainians want matters more than what Americans want for them. And they're perfectly capable of fighting; THEY'VE BEEN FIGHTING for 7 years!
Ukrainians are fighting for nationalism, not for America or for liberalism. What Ukrainians want matters more than what Americans want for them. And they're perfectly capable of fighting; THEY'VE BEEN FIGHTING for 7 years!
10/Hanania's post is a perfect example of how Americans are insular and tend to only think about their own internecine culture wars. He thinks he's criticizing this tendency, but in fact he's just providing a perfect demonstration of this tendency.
11/His post is all about America -- what America wants, American values, and blah blah blah. His analysis of Ukraine's fighting spirit and ability is based entirely on a brief glance at its geography and population statistics, not at its recent history or politics or anything.
12/As for me, I don't actually know how a Russian invasion of Ukraine would go, or how successful or sustained a Ukrainian insurgency might be; but I do know I wouldn't form a thesis about it on grounds as shaky as this.
13/But Hanania doesn't care about Ukraine at all, he's just trying to own the libs in the American culture wars. So of course Americans who agree with him about those culture wars lap this stuff up, because they, too, want reasons to think the American libs suck.
14/Anyway, I'm sure lots of people will think this post is smart because it includes the word "steppe". Cool. Ultimately it doesn't matter, just like the vast majority of America's culture-war B.S. doesn't matter.
(end)
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