CryptoRelief sending $100m of the $SHIBA funds back to me. I plan to personally deploy these funds with the help of science advisors to complement CryptoRelief's existing excellent work with some higher-risk higher-reward covid science and relief projects worldwide.
I've cofounded a new org (Balvi) to direct these funds, which is in a better position to make these bets which will are very-high-value and global in nature and bring great benefit to Indians and non-Indians. You can follow funds at this address:
Today, a mini-tweetstorm of some of the things I've said and written over the past decade, and what I think about those subjects today.
1. In 2013, I wrote this piece on "how Bitcoin can actually help Iranians and Argentinians". The core point: Bitcoin's key benefit is internationality and censorship resistance, NOT "the 21m limit". I predicted stablecoins will prosper.
Last week, I actually went to Argentina! My verdict: generally correct. Cryptocurrency adoption is high but stablecoin adoption is really high too; lots of businesses operate in USDT. Though of course, if USD itself starts showing more problems this could change.
Temporarily breaking out of my Twitter-minimization for a short thread on issues around free speech and the mass deplatformings of the last week.
Obviously the riots were terrible, people still supporting DT are crazy, so moving on to some things that have not yet been said...
1. Every "two buttons" meme has a not-necessarily-equal and opposite two buttons meme.
The two-buttons meme most people are talking about is "private corporations can do what they want" vs "censorship is bad" on the right. But there's also a challenge on the left...
The "outside view" explanation is simple. When factions fight, they typically disagree on principles and have divergent interests. But eventually by random chance, an issue appears where taking some action X satisfies the principles of side A and interests of side B.
Trying out @PolymarketHQ now. It's unique in that it lives directly on @maticnetwork, an ethereum sidechain, and its UI is optimized for attracting users from outside crypto: it has a "buy USDC with a credit card" interface, and it uses the magic.link login service
The magic link service does fancy AWS trusted hardware stuff so that (assuming AWS does not get hacked) the "root of trust" of your account is your email.
And the outreach to non-crypto users is successful; polymarket has a lot of volume!
My honest feedback: this is a challenging tradeoff for convenience and I don't yet know how I feel about it!
For users who are new to crypto (their target demographic) the risks of magic.link are probably lower than the risk they'll lose their seed...
There's a big difference between statistical models and prediction markets this US election; and it's a puzzle why this is happening.
Some guesses:
1. Bets on prediction markets correctly incorporate the possibility of heightened election meddling, voter suppression, etc affecting the outcome, but statistical models just assume the voting process is fair
(This is the pro-prediction-market explanation)
2. Prediction markets are difficult to access for statistical/politics experts, they're too small for hedge funds to hire those experts, and the people (esp wealthy people) with the most access to PMs are more optimistic about Trump
This is an interesting thread worth reading, though I disagree with the implication that a global "empowered executive" is necessarily the correct solution; it feels like it ignores why people want *decentralized orgs* and not just *better orgs*. I think it's context-dependent...
One important issue is that people often want decentralization precisely because they want a system that has strong resistance to changing in controversial ways. "Empowered executives" are a perfect tool to circumvent that, so they could be counterproductive to that end...
There are different kinds of governance problems. Sometimes, the thing being governed is *meant to be* agile, other times it's meant to be a quiet quasi-automaton, more like a court than a legislature. Eg. quadratic funding is more like the latter than the former.
A quick recap of the short and medium term of Ethereum scaling.
TLDR:
1. Ultra-high scaling with sharding + rollups will be possible *in phase 1* 2. Sharding is NOT "cancelled" 3. Get on a rollup asap; you get 100x scaling even without eth2
The original ETH2 roadmap was created with 3 phases:
0. PoS (this is the one that's coming very soon) 1. Sharding of data, but not of computation (that is, the sharded chain will *include* ~2 MB/sec of data, but it will just be dumb data blobs, not txs) 2. Sharded tx processing
Currently, we have ~15-45 TPS. Rollups offer a ~100x increase in throughput. Sharding offers a ~64x increase. These two stack multiplicatively; rollups *on top of* sharding offer a ~6400x (!!) increase in throughput.