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Phil Kerpen Profile picture
@kerpen
Jan 28, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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We have the CDC Flu View for MMWR Week 3 ending Jan 22.
cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…
Flu testing. Traditionally the clinical lab figures are the surveillance numbers, but a lot of testing has shifted to public health labs.

Comps are this year's week 3 to previous years' week 3 week-of reports, not final, to account for lag.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
Here's the clinical labs by week. Decline continues for flat after four weeks of decline -- will we get a February rebound? Image
Flu testing season-to-date, first 16 weeks (MMWR weeks 40 to 3) compared to recent years. Image
Here's CDC's ILI chart for this week (MMWR week 2). Three weeks of drop from apparent cron peak. Image
CDC reports a total of 971 flu hospital admissions (-512 from previous week) nationally for the week ending on January 22. Image
Today's national HHS Protect daily flu hospital census is 1,140. (-260 from last Friday).

Here's where they are by state. Image
Cron stomp ending?

Biofire shows everything else dropped while the cron took over, now bottoming while cron peaks.

syndromictrends.com Image
CDC RSV by region through 1/22.

West drop continued, joining the rest of the country.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
Fifth week of flu decline in Florida, which had been retracing 2018-19 season but broke down sharply when the cron showed up. floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-c… Image
Sweden. Flu A returned big time after ~2 years at zero -- vanished just as fast when cron hit.

karolinska.se/globalassets/g… ImageImage
Why does seasonal flu vanish during pandemics? We don't really understand the mechanism, but it's not mitigation.
And it's not masks. We have tons of studies showing masks don't stop flu, and the patterns are the same in places that don't use masks.

apps.who.int/iris/bitstream… Image
Here's WHO's global flu chart, five year and one year views. Is the global mini return past peak for the year?

This link will let you compare any country or region in the world:
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo… ImageImage
And that concludes this week's Friday ILI Day thread!

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More from @kerpen

Phil Kerpen Profile picture
May 22
Fauci's fixer David Morens: "I learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after I am foia'd but before the search starts, so I think we are all safe."
zaob78xab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001Hh…
Image
Foia lady is "an old friend, Marg Moore, who leads our FOIA office and also hates FOIAs." Image
Morens deleted all emails related to origin "when the sh-- starting hitting the fan." Image
Read 9 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
Jan 31
Infamous coronamaniacal anti-schooler, child-masker lockdown advocate Gavin Yamey is editing COVID lessons for the election???

Why not somebody who didn't get everything wrong? Image
I mean... Image
Dude was a hostage-taker: Image
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
Dec 28, 2023
The Collins video is here. He is absolutely grotesque.
In 2023, Collins dismisses Sweden (lowest all-cause excess mortality in Europe) based on a few months in early 2020.
Collins "infinite value" quote transcribed. Image
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
Mar 29, 2023
Huge Senate votes tomorrow on @RogerMarshallMD bill to terminate the COVID national emergency (how many of the 12 Dems who voted yes for identical bill in November will flip??) and @SenCapito bill to ban Biden's insane WOTUS rule that lets EPA/Army Corps call anything a wetland.
These are both privileged measures that cannot be filibustered. Candidates for Biden vetoes #2 and #3.
(But I also thought he would veto the DC crime bill and he didn't. It never hurts to make him do it.)
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
Mar 3, 2023
I am told @DjokerNole doesn't want a waiver; he wants the ban lifted for everyone.

Why does Old Joe still have this insane policy in place, when his own CDC said NPIs should not differentiate based on vaccine status back in August???
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
If @DjokerNole changes his mind about coming to the US before Biden ends his ban, there is an easy way to get to Miami: take a ferry from the Bahamas, which violates neither the CDC/FAA air travel mandate nor the DHS land/ferry mandates, which are specific to Canada and Mexico.
Easy peasy. helpcenter.baleariacaribbean.com/hc/en-us/artic…
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
Mar 3, 2023
He's a liar.

They found a combined total of 20 fewer cases in the 300 masking intervention villages in two months.

More than explained by observation bias.

trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Even taken at face value (and ignoring that more distancing was observed in the masking intervention villages) the effect size as so small that it loses significance in pooling (see Cochrane) even though it was by far the largest study.
(And I've still never gotten an explanation of how the Bangladesh study apparently lost 15,000 baseline blood samples.)
Read 4 tweets

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