Tony Yates Profile picture
Feb 3 6 tweets 2 min read
I presume he must understand how state pensions work. There's no portfolio of assets that Scots contributions helped build, from whose dividends Scots pensions are paid. If there were, independence from England would mean that Scots would take that pot and manage it themselves.
State pensions are paid out of ongoing taxation. The moral and power reality of it is that Scots are not going to be able to persuade English/Welsh/NI taxpayers to pay for state pensions for retired Scots.
They can try, of course. They will have some leverage. What happens to Trident? Where to draw the line through the fossil fuel sea-fields that we are not supposed to be extracting? Perhaps by overcharging for renewable power.
Blackford is trying to reassure Scots, who worry that the loss of the RoUK subsidy to Scotland would put pressure on them to trim pensions [they would have to make pretty savage cuts somewhere, so the fear is justified].
So he's saying: don't worry, you paid your money through your life, to the UK, so it's coming back to you by rights. It sounds convincing, but behind it lurks the imaginary pot that is there, with Scotland's name on 1/10 of it. There is no pot, sadly.

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More from @t0nyyates

Feb 4
Silvia has translated a piece on Naomi Bentwich by my wife - Ariadne Birnberg - into Spanish. Quick explanation [that won't do justice to the story] follows.
Naomi worked as Keynes' secretary and typed up The Economic Consequences of the Peace for him. And while she was doing that became convinced that they were on the threshold of a romance. Looking back, it seems that this was probably entirely her imagining.
There's a chapter in Skidelsky's biography devoted to it, called 'the mad woman', a moniker used by Keynes' Bloomsbury friends to refer to Naomi.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3
14yo pushed by comp to take French GCSE early is now struggling. Any suggestions that don’t involve ££ that I can’t afford on tutors?
Some great suggestions here - thanks very much!
Well one thing that has come out of it is I have started learning Greek on duolingo. 17 years into my marriage to a half-Greek and after 17 summers in Greece hanging around her family, mute, save for the odd obscenity that I picked up.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
The cost of living/energy crisis seems to generate some confusion. Short thread.
1. There's nothing the BoE could do about this. Even if it had had secret foresight of what would happen to energy prices, and set very tight monetary policy a long time ago to make sure that other prices fell to compensate, eliminating the inflation, it would still hurt.
2. The rise in energy prices is, fundamentally, a fall in our real standard of living; the cost of what we would like to consume relative to the worth of what we can produce and sell to exchange for it.
Read 20 tweets
Feb 2
There are a few difficulties with swallowing the government's commitment to 'levelling up'.
1. It's a policy agenda that has followed a soundbite and has been cooked up to rationalize it, ex post.
2. much of the agenda is about undoing the effects of past policies pursued by Conservatives. Letting the market rip in the closure of the old industries, with little support afterwards in the 1980s; the austerity policy of the 2010-2016 period which gutted local govt.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 1
Hard to know what to make of this IMO. Others seem to react with instant outrage, but I find myself thinking:
1. To begin with, some uncertainty about what PPE quality/type would be needed. Early procurement errors might be expected, and indicative of a precautionary policy of buying whatever you can.
2. There was a mad scramble for PPE, at a time of very high demand, and supply constraints binding. Perhaps to be expcted that there would be some overpayment - doing that and securing a trade better than underpaying and getting nothing.
Read 19 tweets
Feb 1
I support Andrew's call for a TC review of the MPC.
I think that all the big calls; very low interest rates since the GFC; QE, were the right ones. Forward guidance was the right thing to do but handled badly.
Andrew has a point about diversity on the MPC. Controversies rage in economics about everything, including monetary econ and finance. Yet the range of votes on the MPC is tiny and there is almost no disagreement about anything, ever.
Read 8 tweets

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