It’s really unclear why Avenatti agreed to surrender. He won’t stipulate to basic evidence stuff in trial, but he’ll agree to go to jail? He does have a report date looming for his 30-month Nike sentence, but with California case still pending he could have argued for delay.
There was some talk in the courtroom that Judge Furman would order Avenatti remanded on the spot if prosecutors asked, just based on the way the judge had been lighting him up all trial. Others said it was unlikely, but maybe that was a factor in agreeing to surrender Monday?
Fixed this one: Regarding courtroom reaction, Avenatti had his head down with a red face. One of two women who’s been in court for him every day was sitting in a chair next to me, crying softly. His two paralegals from the California case were in court, too.
Regarding Avenatti’s sentencing, don’t listen to anyone who says he’ll get 20 years for wire fraud. He won’t. Based on $148,750 dollar amount, he’s looking at a standard range of 18-24 months, or probably 21-27 months. Then an extra two years for identity theft. 
Big question is will Avenatti’s three felony convictions from the Nike case push him into the second criminal history category in the sentencing table? Hard to imagine they wouldn’t. So that means 21-27, with another 24 months for ID theft. 45-51 months in prison. About 4 years.
Good point. There are lots of factors in sentencing that can increase offense levels by a couple points here and there.
https://twitter.com/VeritasVincit5/status/1489709650907787264
Again, Avenatti was not convicted of stealing $300k from Stormy. He was convicted of using interstate wire to perpetuate a scheme to defraud. Jurors never considered a dollar amount, and prosecutors told Judge Furman $148,750 is the dollar figure they’re using.
That’s the amount of Stormy’s third book payment, which she to this day has never received. The other dollar amount listed in the indictment is $148,750, which is the 2nd payment that as revealed in trial Avenatti repaid with a loan from Mark Geragos.
It’s annoying and journalistically frustrating to see people repeat the $300k figure over and over with zero explanation, but it’s understandable given how the wire fraud indictment reads. If there’s a theft or fraud case, people want to know the amount of money involved.
But the nature of federal wire fraud gives prosecutors a lot of room on dollar amounts. They have specific (indisputable) dollar amounts for otherwise-lawful wire transactions, but overall fraud scheme is broader and can include a lot more money. (We see this in California case.)
It is possible prosecutors could try to factor in the $148,750 second payment at sentencing, which would give him two more offense level points at $297,500), but I heard prosecutors explicitly tell Judge Furman in court that $148,750 is the dollar amount in this case.
On another occasion, prosecutors told Judge Furman it's the third payment at issue in the case, not the second, though obviously what happened with the second payment was key evidence. So trying to factor it into sentencing would be a 180.
Judge Furman released the notes from the jury that convicted Michael Avenatti. Here they are. They tell an interesting story.
Here's the full filing with the jury notes. It includes Judge Furman's responses to the notes. bit.ly/3AYkWOS
The filing also includes the verdict form.
.@SDNYnews tweeted this link to a statement on Avenatti's conviction, but there's nothing actually there.
https://twitter.com/SDNYnews/status/1489712770648059906?s=20&t=KQkY4gAMo1zAhTb5SrV-mg
The verdict form shows jurors in the Michael Avenatti trial actually checked both not guilty boxes, but crossed them out.
^^^The redactions. on the right would include the name and the signature of the foreperson.
Regarding juror interviews, it'll be interesting to see if any of them talk after Judge Furman telling them today that they may get inquiries, and they should "think long and hard" before accepting them, and if they do, they shouldn't talk about what went on in the jury room.
Furman told jury "I strongly and firmly request" they respect privacy of fellow jurors. He also said when asking they don't discuss deliberations that it's between the 12 of them what happened. "You verdict is your verdict. What happened in the jury room happened among you."
Avenatti walking presser today after his conviction. He says he’s getting to work on his appeal. (His lawyer in his 9th Circuit appeal got an extension on the reply brief for the California case last week. It’s now due Monday. So lots of appellate work to do.)
https://twitter.com/molcranenewman/status/1489702713176772609
^^^ above tweet should say Judge Furman told the jury: "Your verdict is your verdict. What happened in the jury room happened among you."
Here’s a statement from Stormy Daniels’ lawyer, Clark Brewster. @cbrew1 “Stormy is pleased that the justice system worked.”
@threadreaderapp Unroll, please. Thank you! 🚀
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