It was supposed to be a pretty difficult week since I "lost" (unrealized) a bunch of money following earnings last week. But in reality, I felt very engrossed, and energized.
It was a textbook reminder why I actively invest in the first place.
2/11 Why do I actively invest?
Investing is my lens to understand the world. With my money on the line, the stakes are as high as it can possibly go.
3/11 Investing allows and forces me to study the past, observe the present, and ruminate the future of the companies that are shaping the world.
4/11 Will Meta survive the TikTok onslaught? Will Zuck gradually fade as once prodigious but ultimately tenuous as a business leader?
Will Spotify always remain prisoner to music labels?
5/11 Will Ek's strategy to aggregate podcast and music together harness power against the labels but simultaneously introduce fragility into the system?
6/11 Those are the kind of questions I wanted to think and while answers can be elusive in many cases, it incentivizes our understanding of the world based on facts, lived experiences, educated opinions, and calculated risks.
7/11 A buddy texted me "when a stock is getting crushed, you tend to get a LOT smarter about the business. Every time something is going to get me, I learn a ton."
I could not agree more!
8/11 I was listening to this terrific conversation between @BillBrewsterTBB and Chris Cerrone from Akre Capital. Chris mentioned Buffett's interview with John Train for his book "The Money Masters" published in 1980.
Market was in such a dour mood before the earnings that even an okay-ish quarter and guidance drove the stock +15% AH.
For the first time, international sales declined in any quarter YoY 😯
I know, I know tough comp. Here's my notes.
2/12 First, here's the breakdown of sales and operating income by NA, international, and AWS. Also, a breakdown by segment. For the first time, advertising revenue was disclosed.
3/12 2020 was extraordinary for $AMZN, so 2-yr/3-yr CAGR is more reflective of underlying health.
Q4: AMZN 2-yr CAGR is still at ~25%. AWS is accelerating growth. Ads 2-yr CAGR ~47%. Hard to complain.
AWS incremental operating margin mid-30s. But a wild swing for AMZN, ex-AWS.
If someone gave me the call transcript and press release a day before and asked me how do you think the market would react, I would probably say +5%?
In reality, stock went down 22% AH, then recovered to -10%. Investing is hard.
Let's dig in.
2/17 So what spooked the market initially? It's the soft Q1 MAU guidance. After adding 64 mn, 74 mn, and 61 mn MAU in the last 3 yrs, SPOT guided only 12 mn MAU add in 1Q'22. On a run-rate basis, that's material deceleration of MAU add.
Market HATES unprofitable decel narrative.
3/17 Why do I think market's initial reaction was misguided?
"we do not anticipate any material changes in the trajectory for net growth in MAUs and subs in 2022 when compared to the net growth we experienced in 2021."
For the first time in a quarter, revenue from YouTube ads exceeded $NFLX revenue. 15 years ago, GOOG bought YouTube for $1.65 Bn. The king of AVOD *grew* its topline by ~9 Bn in 2021.
2/12 Incremental operating margin went down from the ~50s to ~mid-30s, primarily driven by increasing losses in Cloud and corporate overhead costs. Long-term potential margins for the overall biz remain compelling once cloud reaches scale.
3/12 On YouTube shorts: "We just hit 5 trillion all-time views and have over 15 billion views each day globally."
"Last year, the number of YouTube channels that made at least $10,000 revenue was up more than 40% year-over-year"
1/7 $AAPL generated ~$102 Bn FCF in last 12 months. Even though it handily outperformed the index in almost all timeframes, it still trades at ~3.8% NTM FCF yield, arguably not an egregious valuation level.
In 2012-16, it was regularly trading at ~10% NTM FCF yield. Why?
2/7 One rationale was AAPL was expected to be disrupted. Its hardware margin was always assumed to be unsustainable.
Even Clayton Christensen feared all doom and gloom for AAPL. The consensus seemed to be "good enough" Androids will prove to be existential threat for iPhone.
3/7 It's fun to go back and see what people were worried about a decade ago. Some wondered whether Android is already "good enough" in 2012 which would erode iPhone's dominance.
Why are so many people focused on calling the bottom?
In bear markets, markets feel like a sinkhole. You put your hard earned money to your portfolio, and it just keeps disappearing. Not fun.
2/8 Since markets start to feel like a hot stove, we don't want to touch it anymore. We want to wait when things cool down. So we keep wondering whether things have indeed cooled down.
I really doubt, however, whether any bottoming in the market ever becomes "obvious".
3/8 During Covid, market bottomed in March 23, 2020. @SuperMugatu wrote this piece on May 08, 2020 titled "Devil’s Advocate — The Bull Case"
Almost one and half month after market bottomed last time, being bullish was contrarian.