Thread by @kamilkazani

Electoral fraud in Novosibirsk, Russia happening right now. Locals choose the new city talisman among animals from Novosibirsk zoo: wild cat, snow leopard, siberian tiger, polar bear and orangutan. Orangutan was winning till the Kremlin stepped in to steal his victory (thread)

Novosibirsk located in the south of Siberia is the third largest city in Russia after Moscow and St Petersburg. As most other Russian regions and municipalities it has little actual autonomy. Most of the key positions in the region are distributed among aliens - 'the Varyangians'

What does a Varangian mean? Let's go a bit deeper in history. The word Varangы (варяг) simply means 'Vikings', who according to Russian tradition played a key role in the earliest Russian state-building

According to Russian tradition, Slavs living in what is now Novgorod region tired from the constant internal fight and decided to invite rulers from abroad. 'Our land is vast and rich but orderless. Come to rule and reign over us'

So in 862 three Viking leaders came to rule and reign. Rurik settled in Novgorod, Sineus on the White Lake and Truvor in Izborsk.

See them on the map. Novgorod (Новгород), White Lake (Белоозеро) and Izborsk (Изборск) are mentioned as the first Viking strongholds from where they expanded southwards. Descendants of Rurik - or those guys who traced their genealogy to Rurik - ruled Russia since 862 till 1598

Is this story factually true? Not necessarily. The main source of the narrative - the Primary Chronicle - was compiled around 1113 - about 250 years later. Some authors argued it aimed to whitewash what was essentially a violent conquest, legitimising the rule of the conquerors

In modern Russian language the word Varyang (варяг) has two meanings. In historical context it is a Viking raider coming to a Slavic land and settling as a feudal lord. In political context however, it means sth different, though referring to the events of the bygone age

Before Putin came to power, the federal center was relatively weak, and regional elites - quite strong. In many respects they dared to show disobedience to the supreme power

Consider case of General Attorney of Russia Skuratov. Skuratov was investigating financial machinations with government obligations (ГКО). He investigated 800 important ppl, including cabinet members, officials of president's administration and even daughters of President Yeltsin

Skuratov went too far. He attacked not only ministers, but the family of president Yeltsin (or just 'the family', "семья", as it was called). Very soon a video tape showing 'a man looking like a general attorney' with two escort women was broadcasted on national TV

The investigation against Skuratov was personally directed by a young chief of the Federal Security Service - Vladimir Putin, who probably organised the entire operation. FSS indicted Skuratov with overstepping his legal powers

President Yeltsin ordered to lay off Skuratov for as long as the investigation lasts. However, the order had to be confirmed by the upper house of Russian parliament - the Federation Council. Here you see Skuratov talking with council members during the vote

Incredible it may sound, Federation Council refused to accept his resignation and insisted on Skuratov keeping his job. Why? Well, back then the federation council consisted from the governors and speakers of regional legislative assemblies. They were very independent from Moscow

In practice it was kinda House of Lords. They were very powerful people elected in their own regions and not owing much to the favour of president. To the contrary, they often tried to keep President at check

Consider Nemtsov then governor of Nizhny Novgorod. He organised collected a million signatures agains the Chechen War in 1996 in his region and delivered them to Yeltsin

Yeltsin asked:
— If you collected signatures all around the country, how many would you collect?
— 40 million
— Are these signatures for me or against?
— It depends on your actions. If you stop the war, they are for you, if not, then not
— I understood

What Yeltsin understood was that many regions were led by independent elites, who grew up there, were connected there and elected there. And thus they were people of conditional loyalty. Which might have worked unless Yeltsin had a family

'The family' (Семья) of Yeltsin was universally hated. Simply speaking they were accused of facilitating socio-economic collapse in order to enrich. E.g. the short-term loans led to the default in 1998 but enriched the main inside trader - Yeltsin's daughter Taryana Yumasheva

With Yeltsin's health quickly deteriorating, his alcoholism and heart attacks that constituted a major problem. What if he suddenly dies? Literally anyone who comes to power will attack Yeltsin's family to gain popularity. That was too predictable

They couldn't succeed themselves cuz they were unelectable. So they needed successor. Ofc they could demand guarantees of safety. But what if he breaks them? That was a huge problem. Any new president would have huge incentive to do a major investigation to gain popularity

A man without principles would betray them. A man with strong principles could too, valuing his public duty more than his personal obligations. A solution would be - finding a man whose main and single principle was personally loyalty. And Tatyana's husband Valentin found him

Putin started his career as an aide of Sobchak - the mayor of St Petersburg who was in opposition to Yeltsin. After Sobchak lost the election his activities were investigated and soon he was charged with corruption

His old boss defeated, Putin lost his old job. However, he soon got a new one - in Yeltsin's administration. In 1997, in his new capacity he organised the escape of his old boss to France, so he could avoid all charges and potential prison

That was a risky move. In other circumstances it could cost him his career. But not now. Under these grave conditions, Yeltsin's family saw him as a potential solution - a man with personal loyalty and a sense of gratitude

So Yeltsin's son in law Yumashev offered him to Yeltsin as a potential candidature and Yeltsin agreed. In May 1998 Putin becomes the Deputy Head of president's administration. In July - the Chief of Federal Security Service. In August - the Prime Minister

On the New Year Even 1999 Yeltsin declares his resignation - 3 months before his presidential term ended. And he appointed Putin as an acting head of the state. Till elections of course. That would happen in 3 months

That's a very interesting case. I often read absolutely delusional argument about Putin's regime being a sort of aberration from the normal constitutional order. That's a complete BS. Power in Russia never ever transitioned from one person to another as a result of elections

Since 1613 power in the country transitioned either through succession mechanism or through coup d'etat. But never through voting. Therefore, we have little reason to belief that the next transition will proceed through electoral mechanism. It never really did

On the bright side, Yeltsin's family made a right choice. Putin indeed was personally loyal and never betrayed his benefactor. His very first order as an acting president was to guarantee safety of an ex-president and his family and give them very wide material privileges

Immediately upon his succession, Putin starts dismantling entire structure of federalism. He saw autonomous elites and regional agency as a problem and sought unlimited power. In fact, Yeltsin could have exercised huge power, too. He was just more hesitant to use it. Putin wasn't

Well, first of all he fired Skuratov. Now the Federation Council succumbed. Then he changed the structure of this council - now it was comprised of his own appointees. Minus one check on power

Then he divided Russian territory to Federal Districts, each having a few regions under its jurisdiction. The Districts were led by President's Representatives - his personal appointees usually with the state security background

Then the gubernatorial elections were abolished. Interestingly enough, it was done in the context of the war on terror. After a school in Beslan was reportedly occupied by terrorists in 2003, Russian population lost the right to choose their governors - now Putin did it for them

Meanwhile Putin's minister of finance Kudrin launched the budget centralisation. In practice that meant that the regions were virtually dispossessed of independent income streams. Instead they had to rely on federal transfers which make them dependent on Kremlin's goodwill

Let me give you an example. Here you can see the map of budget transfers in Russia. Blue ones get more transfer cash from Moscow than they give to it, red ones get more transfers than they give. So almost all of the country is net-recipient. Does it make sense? Not really

While poverty of some regions is real, the poverty of others is very very questionable. In fact some of the regions listed here as recipients are very productive. Even the Samara Oblast with the top industrial production per capita in Russia is a net recipient of transfers. How?

There are two answers to this question. First of all - corporate centralisation. Under the federal pressure, smaller regionally-registered companies have to allow themselves to be absorbed by large federal-owned ones. Which mostly reside in Moscow/St Petersburg

Second, HQs of both state-owned and private companies are moved to Moscow at St Petersburg. For example a huge gas and oil producing SOE Gazprom is located in St Petersburg instead of northern Siberia where it actually extracts stuff

RUSAL - second largest producer of aluminium in the world is headquartered in Moscow. Its main production is concentrated in Siberia. Siberians who actually work there and have to suffer from pollutions RUSAL production creates get almost nothing. Cuz taxes r paid in Moscow

The list could be continued but it gives a general picture. Many Russian regions are reduced to poverty artificially. They r actually quite productive, it's just the value they produce streams to Moscow. So they r beggars dependent on the mercy of federal government

And finally let's talk of Varyangians. Once Putin started appointing governors, he gradually fired the old local ones and appointed complete strangers. In popular imagination they are compared with strangers that ruled Russia in early Middle Ages - hence, Varyangians

What makes a Varyag? Firstly, he has no connections to the region. He didn't live here, didn't make a career, has no network and no support here. So he is a personal appointee of the ruler completely dependent on him. Some are faceless federal bureaucrats looking like clones

Some are indeed career bureacrats. E.g. a chief of Moscow-based quango Nikitin appointed as a governor of Novgorod, despite never living there and having no connections to the region

Another pattern is appointing Putin's personal bodyguards as governors. Indeed governors of Tula, Yaroslavl, Astrakhan and Kaliningrad are Putin's former bodyguards with no political or civil service experience

A more weird case is appointment of an oligarch Boris Abramovich as a governor of Chukotka - the most remote Siberian region directly bordering Alaska. Here you see Abramovich with his new subjects

Here is Chukotka

Finally, a new law of Klishas Krasheninnikov which I will cover later gives federal government full authority over any regional ones. E.g. regional cabinets will be fully comprised of Moscow appointees and legislative assembly members will be considered federal civil servants

This policy has several consequences. First of all, as a result most of people who directly govern Russian regions are nomadic bandits. Not stationary ones. They are appointed there for a while and know they will be appointed somewhere else soon. They are not gonna root in

Thus they have no personal interest with the region's future. To the contrary, they have full incentive to such it dry asap. Much of destructive effect of 'corruption' in Russia is not so much greed as the short planning horizon

Furthermore, federal government is extremely wary of literally any forms of local agency and identity. The case with which I started might sound absurd. It indeed sounds absurd. However, while the Russian state is not so brutal in Moscow, it's extremely brutal in the province

This brutality may not be bloody, it usually isn't. It's rather a very thorough and systematic extirpation of any forms of agency, esp. those based on regional and provincial pride and identity. Any expression of this agency is suspicious. Including the city talisman elections

In this context, the sympathy of many American conservatives to Russia may look absurd. In fact, Putin's regime looks like conservative nightmare. Imagine all powerful DC grabbing all money and resources, and the entire country directly ruled by the whim of White House staffers

And yet, let me make one more observation. Assuming that Putin is a very personally loyal man, promoted mainly on basis of his personal loyalty to those who helped him on his way, what can we infer about his future actions? Especially regarding appointments?

My guess - look at those who helped him the most. Namely - on those who brought an unemployed staffer of a defeated city administration to Moscow and secured him job in the federal government. Putin was invited by another former Sobchak staffer now working for the feds - Kudrin

And who brought Kudrin to Moscow? Well, another former Sobchak's deputy - Anatoly Chubais, who then moved to Moscow and made a huge career in the federal government personally overseeing the privatisation of Soviet government property

Assuming all of this, the most trusted pool of Putin's cadres would be his old colleagues - Sobchak staffers and aides who regrouped around Putin after the defeat of their old boss. In a sense new regime was forged in the foundry of Sobchak's rather than Yeltsin's administration