Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022 51 tweets 16 min read Read on X
There is a misconception regarding Stalin and his punitive policies. Some argue that purges were aimed at Nazis/collaborators. Bullshit. The opposite is true - it was okayish to be a Nazi supporter. Meanwhile the heretics within the Party were exterminated with no mercy (thread) Image
A good example can be found in a short story by Shalamov. I personally much prefer Shalamov to Solzhenystsyn both as an author, as a thinker and as a witness of the era. Solzhenytsyn was imprisoned in privileged conditions, while Shalamov - in a literal hellhole of Gulag Image
The plot is. A prisoner finds out how does the Gulag keep information on him. One dossier is kept at the general archive - and you can't access it. On the bright side, they never actually check it. Another dossier is going with a prisoner from one camp to another and kept locally Image
There are abbreviatons there on how to treat a prisoner. For example КРД - Counter-Revolutionary Diversant. Not so bad. Unfortunately, this guy's abbreviation was far worse. КРТД - Counter-Revolutionary *Trotskyist* Diversant. That meant - kill him. Don't let him come out alive Image
Trotskyists, or people somehow involved with Trotsky in every capacity had to be exterminated completely. Why? Well, some monarchists or Nazis weren't so bad really. They were infidels, an outgroup. Meanwhile Troktskyists were an ingroup. They were heretics, which is way worse Image
Trotsky wasn't an outsider. In fact, he was a key player of the revolution and the civil war. He was personally organizing what would be called the October Revolution as the Deputy Head of the Military Revolutionary Committee in Petrograd (St Petersburg) Image
Who was *the* head of that committee that overthrew the Provisional Government and led communists to power, you may ask? It was Lazimir. How come you never heard of him? Well, he wasn't a Bolshevik. He wasn't Communist at all Image
The largest and the most popular party in Russia in 1917 wasn't Communists. It was a Socialist Revolutionary Party. They were non-Marxist agrarian socialists who built their agenda around land distribution. Ofc they were the most popular in a country of destitute peasants Image
Socialist Revolutionaries committed most terror attacks in prerevolutionary Russia. You see as Ivan Kalaev kills the General Governor of Moscow Grand Duc Sergey Alexandrovich. Bolsheviks disapproved terrorism and constantly quarrelled with Socialist Revolutionaries on this matter Image
After the February Revolution Socialist Revolutionaries come to power and form the government. Makes total sense. The most popular party with the huge popular support. Kerensky, leader of the Provisional Government was Socialist Revolutionary himself Image
But the WWI continued. And it was hugely unpopular among the masses. The debates on whether to continue the war led to the split of the party. Right-wing SRs supported the war, Left-wings - not. Therefore, Left-wing SRs joined with Bolsheviks to overthrew Provisional Government Image
But why was Provisional Government provisional in the first place? Because it was a temporary gov till the All Russian Constituent Assembly which would determine new way of governance will be called. Therefore, October Revolution wasn't seen as a major event
In fact, the coalition of Bolsheviks and Left SRs, who just overthrew the Right SRs together even allowed elections. However, despite having political power they lost it. Socialist Revolutionaries (which means Right SRs, Left SRs were too late with entering elections) won Image
According to Trotsky, a Left-wing SR Natanson gave the idea:

- We will probably have to disband the Constitutional Assembly by force
— Bravo! - said Lenin. - That's very right. But will your party agree?
— We have some controversy, but I believe everyone will agree in the end Image
And they did. The first day of their work was the last Image
Sailor Zheleznyakov who guarded the convention told:

- The guard is tired (караул устал)

And forced everyone out of the room. The Convention was disbanded, the regime transformed in a collective dictatorship of Bolsheviks and left SRs Image
Initially Bolsheviks and Left SRs allied to stop the war. However, after the Brest Peace Left SRs got angry. In July 1918 they raised a rebellion in Yaroslavl. Bolsheviks suppressed it, largely with forces of German and Hungarian POWs released for this task from POW camps Image
Consequently, Left SRs were purged from all offices and all magistrate positions. Now Russia becomes a one-party state. Here you see an image commemorating the suppression of Yaroslavl rebellion. See the swastikas on the background? SRs used them extensively Image
You can even see swastika on the banknotes of the Provisional Government. Until the rise of Hitler swastika was considered just another cool oriental symbol, associated with mysticism and masonry Image
Why did I cover this story of Bolsheviks and SRs in a detailed way? Cuz I find it very Haldunian. In fact I find Haldunian concept of assabiyah highly relevant for the analysis of revolution Image
According to Haldun assabiyah is a coalition of brave upstarts, usually nomads or highlanders. They invade the lands of rotten and degenerate sedentary societies and conquer them Image
But the completion of conquest means the demise of assabiyah. Once it becomes victorious, one of its leader wants to usurp all the power and all the glory of the victory for himself. Who now becomes problematic? Well, the old comrades. Those who actually did the conquest Image
The thing is - before assabiyah came to power it was rather a loose coalition of various heterogenous forces. It was relatively democratic. Relations within it were more or less horizontal and even the leader had to consult with the rest. Nobody could just command Image
But once the conquest is over it starts to change. The leader will usurp all the power, all the glory, all the authority. Horizontal structure becomes a vertical structure and collective rule - a personal rule Image
Furthermore, the entire narrative of how victory is achieved is now completely reshaped. It was never loose horizontal structure, it was a hierarchy with one leader from the beginning. We are not only a monarchy, but we have always been a monarchy with a God-like leader Image
Therefore, the old comrades constitute danger. They are not only too proud and arrogant and dare to question the God-like leader. They are also a bearers of real knowledge of how victory was achieved and that things used to work in a very different way. They need to be eliminated Image
If you look at the October Revolution through lenses of assabiyah it makes sense. A very loose assabiyah of two parties came to power. Then one of them was purged ofc. But even the remaining party was still too loose, too horizontal. Too unstable. It still looked like this Image
It had to look like this. The progress of victory marks the demise and extermination of old assabiyah. Under the new order riches will belong not to the ones who conquered them and empire not the the ones who built it Image
While getting rid of his old comrades the God-like ruler will elevate strangers from nothing. They are nobody, and thus are completely dependent on his good graces. Consider, the Moscow processes of 1937-1938 when pretty much of the Bolshevik Old Guard was eliminated Image
Who was the prosecutor though? Who led the extermination of Old Bolsheviks? Vyshynsky. And who was Vyshynsky? He used to be a police commissar of a district in Moscow who order to arrest Lenin as a German spy in 1917 Image
Is it a coincidence that Stalin delegated the purge to one of the most politically compromised men in the USSR? I think not. Actually it makes sense. First, Vyshynsky was totally dependent on the mercy of Stalin. Without his protection, he would be boycotted and destroyed Image
Furthermore, he might bear a grudge against Old Bolsheviks who despised him, looked down on him, and even tried to exclude him from the Party. Thus he could reasonable have a motive of personal revenge
This could explain why Trotskyism was by far the most dangerous political label under Stalin. Trotsky led the revolution. Trotsky was in charge of the Red Army. And while many communists saw him as the number 2 in the party, many of their enemies viewed him as the number 1 Image
Anti-Communist propaganda of the Civil War constantly presented Trotsky as a tougher, more masculine, more dominant character Image
Leading sShere Trotsky is a dominant male character, while Lenin is a 'madame, a weaker, submissive, feminine partner'. He directly appealed to Lenin, asking him not to play under Trotsky's tune Image
Trotsky was the face of the Communist regime for most of the anti-Communists Image
No wonder that later under Stalin, Trotskyism became the worst political accusation. Shalamov's hero conspires to change an abbreviation in his dossier, dropping a T in КРТД as a typo. Once he becomes an ordinary Counter-Revolutionary divergent, non Trotskyist, he can live
Meanwhile sympathies for Nazism weren't that bad. Condider a poet Yaroslav Smelyakov. In 1934 arrested for keeping a copy of Mein Kampf. Indicted with glorifying Hitler and Mussolini 'I wish we were doing this, too!'. He got three years of prison camp Image
During the Winter War, Smelyakov was drafted to army to fight against the Finns. At the first opportunity he deserted and switched to the Finnish side. In 1945 when Soviets enter Finland he's arrested and sentenced to 2 years of hard labour
Once released, he seeks redemption. He writes a book of poems glorifying Stalin, then publishes poems instructing the working classes in true communist ways. He gets the State Prize of Soviet Union, the Prize of the Council of Communist Youth. Attends high-end government events Image
Let's summarise. Assabiyah is a loose horizontal coalition that seeks political power. Once victorious, it evolves into an absolutist regime. Which pretends assabiyah had always been absolutist and the victory is personal achievement of the ruler or of his divine predecessors
Under the new order, people who actually organised the victory and fought for it become a liability. They not only have high expectations and dare to question the power of the ruler, they also bear the real knowledge of where it all started and that it had not always been so
So they will be eliminated. The ruler gets rid of them and instead promotes outsiders. I would even speculate that outsiders better be compromised, they better be former enemies trying to buy their very life with the loyal service. The more compromised the easier to control
I would even speculate, though I can't prove it, that this Stalinist practice might continue till this very day in modern Russia. Being compromised = committing tons of things that are criminal from the perspective of the dominant narrative = prerequisite to promotion
Think about it. Every time some high profile official is arrested, they usually indict him with dozens or hundreds of cases, collected in piles of volumes with the list of his crimes and all his schemes he used. Every single time. What does it mean in practice? Image
The state security keeps dossier on every high profile person - politician, administrator, businessman. They keep huge volumes with the evidence of their crimes (or what they consider to be crime). The moment supreme power wants to destroy him, it will use all of this
Nemtsov who was then the Deputy Prime Minister recalls a dialogue with Putin, then his subordinate. Putin submitted him a report with the evidence on corruption schemes. Nemtsov:

- If you have the evidence, why don't you recommend to press charges

- You are the boss, you decide Image
Which probably reflects Putin's mentality. The role of investigators is not to destroy an official but rather to collect the evidence and present it to the boss. So he can use it against his subordinate whenever he wants. Criminal evidence is the main tool of control
Which implies that the supreme power who thinks and operates this way will be consciously selecting and promoting very compromised people. The more compromised, the more controllable
As a result, very soon the entire ruling elite will consist of people who are common criminals from the perspective of ideology which this very elite uses to legitimise it power. If you didn't do sth criminal from the perspective of the dominant narrative, you get no promotion
End of thread. I plan to publish mega threads weekly, but on a specific day of the week. Twitter doesn't give more than 4 options for a poll, so you can post a preferred day in your comments here. I will start threads between 12-14.00 East Coast time, 17-19 Western European time

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More from @kamilkazani

Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 17
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting rulerImage
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec

The link is in the first comment Image
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download



By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.comImage
Key takeaways:

1. Missile production is mostly about machining
2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise
3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually

That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive processImage
Read 15 tweets
Feb 25
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵Image
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality

Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians doImage
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama

"No, he's a decent family man, citizen"

In America one thing is tied with another
Read 23 tweets
Feb 19
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.Image
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective

It is the factImage
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him

He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stabilityImage
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18
On Friday, @navalny died (most probably killed) in prison. This is a good time to discuss the prospects of Russian opposition and the future transition of political power, once Putin is gone. This is also a good occasion to debunk some pervasive myths on the mechanics of power🧵 Image
First, getting rid of @navalny was probably a correct decision on behalf of Kremlin. Execution of this murder may have been suboptimal (unprofessional, etc.). But the very idea to eliminate him was reasonable and makes total sense. There is nothing crazy or irrational about it
This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:

Bloody tyrants rule longer

The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any otherImage
Image
Read 19 tweets

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