When I asked a youth leader in Quibdó what daily life is like, she put it this way:

“Our challenge here is to make it through the day alive.”

In January alone, at least 14 youth were murdered in Quibdó, a city of just 120,000.

Brief thread🧵about our recent @crisisgroup visit
There are two conflicts in Chocó today.

One is ongoing since 2017: btwn ELN and Clan del Golfo for territorial control. The AGC is winning.

Two is even more alarming: the fight by the AGC to cement its presence in the fabric of society. Consolidation, purging of resistance.
Conflict 1:

The AGC’s push into Chocó, from its base in Uraba, Antioquia, has been ruthless and swift.

From a small presence in 2017, today communities say the group controls nearly every major urban center in Chocó.
The AGC have now expelled the ELN from all but a few small pockets in Medio Atrato, San Juan, and San José del Palmar.

Military operations against the ELN have simultaneously depleated & fragmented the groups leadership.
Since August, AGC has brazenly pushed south to connect its long corridor all the way to the Pacific, and then to Buenaventura.

As they enter towns, they threaten, kill, confine and purge alleged ELN partisans. Both groups plant landmines and render communities human shields
Humanitarians here estimate that about 60,000 people are forcibly confined in their communities, meaning they cannot access their livelihoods, basic services. (Map Jan-Oct 21)

In a fluvial dept, where the rivers are sustenance, transport, life...the impact has been devastating.
Quibdó is the other contested prize. The AGC and ELN have associated themselves with rival criminal bands, the Urabeños and Los Mexicanos.

In 2021, authorities reported no fewer than 214 homicides. Extortion has skyrocketed. Sexual violence is an unspoken but ubiquitous crime.
The AGC has alarmingly won sympathy with this tactic: end delinquency in exchange for communal silence.

“For many in Quibdó, the AGC are the good guys because they instill calm," I was told. "The society is associating itself with these groups out of self defense.”
Conflict 2: The fight to entrench.

With each day the AGC lives in both rural and urban communities, their presence becomes irreversible.
The strategy is predicated on destroying the existing social fabric and local authorities in order to install their own.

They threaten and kill indigenous leaders, impose themselves upon Consejos Comunitarios, limit contact with outside.
They recruit youth, rendering mothers the last lines of defense.

Children are brought in as look-outs. Women are paid girlfriends, whose loyalty is secured through financial dependence.
They pay salaries. We heard one story of how the AGC sets up a table in local town squares to pay its men in sight of everyone in the area.

They have sports clubs. At Christmas, they offered a prize to the town with the best lighting decorations.

They move in, marry locally.
I will leave you with this, which left me speechless for what the future holds.

"The groups are doing two things that no state has been capable of doing: charging taxes and offering justice.

They are not there because of their threats but because of the authority they wield."

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