Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 8, 2022 19 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Russian theorist of history Lappo-Danilevsky classified primary sources into two categories - 'remains' (остатки) and 'myths' (предания). Let's discuss the difference between these two categories on example of this medal commemorating the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (thread)
'Myths' are sources that are purposefully created to convey a certain narrative for the future readers. E.g, a chronicle, a speech, a book. Meanwhile, a 'remain' is created for practical purposes and not for the future readers. Accounting books, court cases, military orders
For example, much of the narrative on Ivan the Terrible's reign, specifically the Oprichnina terror is based on the court chronicle - Litsevoy Svod. It was purposefully created (by Ivan himself?) to convey a certain interpretation of events for the future audience. That's a myth
Meanwhile state cadastre documents made for taxation purposes, посошные книги, that illustrate extreme desolation of much of Central Russia by the end of his reign, were not created to convey any message for the audience, but for practical administrative purposes. That's a remain
Sounds simple. A myth is created on purpose, while a remain is a byproduct of a normal life process (business, administrative, legal, personal). In practice it's a bit more complicated. The same source can be either a 'myth' or a 'remain' depending on which data we draw from it
As a general rule, we use a source as a myth when we draw from it the very info its creator wanted to convey to us. But we can use it as a remain when we draw from it that info which the authors didn't really intend to give to us, but gave unwillingly
Let's consider Ivan the Terrible's Sinodik - where he listed people he killed or executed. There are about 3000 names there - mostly of nobility and elite. A typical passage 'Bojar X, his three sons, 10 gentlemen and the household servants - uncounted (без счета);
From here we can conclude that Oprichnina included indiscriminate massacres of the general population. Whom nobody counter, because nobody was interested. They were killed just because they happened to be there
So let's look at the medal again. What's interesting here? The dates of the military operation. The end date - March 18 when Russia officially annexed Crimea sounds logical. But the beginning - February 20 - is more tricky
Putin declared that he ordered the operation on February 23, after ex-President Yanukovich escaped to Russia. So the logic is: Ukraine used to have legitimate government which we recognised. It was illegally overthrown so now we have open hands
But why does it start with February 20 then? Most probably because the real order was given then, when Yanukovich was technically still in power. Which means that the operation was ordered and prepared during the regime which Russia considered legitimate
Which presents conflict in a very different way. Russia retrospectively presented its actions as reactive, while they probably were very, very proactive. More like seizing the opportunity than reacting to a crisis
So in a sense this medal might disclose a state secret. Which is very typical. Consider the Winter War with Finland in 1939. It started on November 30, 1939 - officially as a defensive response to a Finnish provocation
Which is a lie. Soviets planned the attack well in advance. How do we know it? From a Soviet military song "Принимай нас, Суоми-красавица"
Read the lyrics describing the Soviet invasion

Ломят танки широкие просеки,
Самолёты кружат в облаках,
Невысокое солнышко осени
Зажигает огни на штыках.

Tanks are breaking through the forest
Planes are circling in the clouds
The low autumn sun
Is shining the bayonets
*The low autumn sun*. If the war started on November 30 was a reactive response, would we have these lyrics? Unlikely. Apparently, the war was decided and prepared very well in advance - and planned in autumn. The army was prepared, the logistics organised, the songs written
But apparently as it often happens with big enterprises, the war had to be delayed. And delayed. And delayed. And launched much later than it was originally planned. So they kept the original lyrics about the autumn in the song about the war that had been scheduled for the autumn
Why did they keep it? One reason - changing the written lyrics and keeping the rhymes could be laborious. More real reason - nobody in the staff noticed it during all the hurry with preparation for the war. So now we have a nice source-remain on the real plans of Soviet leaders
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More from @kamilkazani

May 19
I have repeatedly pointed out that the modern Russian military industry has little continuity with the Soviet one. Destroyed in the 1990s, it was effectively created anew in the Putin's era. Still, it may sound too abstract, so I will zoom in on one specific example:

Stankomash Image
Located in Chelyabink, Stankomash industrial park hosts major producers for the nuclear, shipbuilding, oil & gas and energy industries. It also produces weaponry, including mine trawls and artillery ammunition (based on the open sources)

All under the umbrella of Konar company Image
Some examples of the Stankomash manufacture. These photos well illustrate the philosophy of Soviet/Russian dual use industry. In the peace time, you focus primarily on civilian products, in the war time you convert it all to the production of weaponry.


Image
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Read 27 tweets
May 17
No offence, but this is a completely imbecile, ignorant, ridiculous framing. I have no explanation for all this debate except for a complete & determined ignorance of the foreign policy making class, and their refusal to learn literally anything about the material world.
"Components" framing makes sense when we are discussing drones. Why? Because drones are literally made from the imported components. You buy like 90% of them in China, and may be you make like 10% domestically. For the most part, you just assemble what you bought in China.
Not the case with missiles. Most of what the missile consists of, including its most critical, hard to make parts is produced domestically. Why? Because you cannot buy it abroad. More often than not, you cannot buy it in China. You can only make it yourself, domestically.
Read 9 tweets
May 12
Contrary to the popular opinion, Andrey Belousov's appointment as a Minister of Defense makes perfect sense. From the Kremlin's perspective, war is primarily about industry & economy. Now Belousov is the central economic & industrial thinker (and planner) in the Russian gov.
Born into a Soviet Brahmin economist family, Belousov is an exceedingly rare case of an academician making a successful career in the Russian gov. Even more noteworthy, he rose to the position of power through his academic work and publications.

This is unique, ultra rare.Image
Belousov's career track:

1976-1981 Moscow State University ("economic cybernetics"). Basically, economics, but with the heavy use of then new computers.
1981-1986 Central Economic Mathematical Institute
1986-2006 Instutute of Economic Forecasting
2006-2024 Government
Read 8 tweets
May 7
If you want to imagine Russia, imagine a depressive, depopulating town. Now on the outskirts of a town, there is an outrageously over-equipped, overfunded strategic enterprise that has literally everything money can buy in the world. It feels like a spaceship from another planet
Strategic industry is extremely generously equipped. Western companies look scoundrels in comparison. That’s why I am so sceptical about the whole “corruption” narrative. Not that it’s wrong. It’s just that it is the perspective of a little, envious bitch.
What needs to be funded, will be funded. It will actually be overfunded and most literally drowned in money. Obviously, overfunding the strategic sector comes at the cost of underfunding almost everything else (like urban infrastructure). That’s why the town looks so grim.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 29
We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?


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The strategic missiles industry appears to be highly secretive and impenetrable to the observers. And yet, it is perfectly OSINTable, based on the publicly available sources. This investigation sample illustrates our approach and methodology (31 p.)

assets-global.website-files.com/65ca3387040186…
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Step 1. State Propaganda.

Our first and invaluable source is the state propaganda, such as the federal and regional TV channels, corporate media, social media and so on. It provides abundant visual evidence, particularly on the hardware used in the production of weaponry.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets

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