Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 8, 2022 19 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Russian theorist of history Lappo-Danilevsky classified primary sources into two categories - 'remains' (остатки) and 'myths' (предания). Let's discuss the difference between these two categories on example of this medal commemorating the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (thread)
'Myths' are sources that are purposefully created to convey a certain narrative for the future readers. E.g, a chronicle, a speech, a book. Meanwhile, a 'remain' is created for practical purposes and not for the future readers. Accounting books, court cases, military orders
For example, much of the narrative on Ivan the Terrible's reign, specifically the Oprichnina terror is based on the court chronicle - Litsevoy Svod. It was purposefully created (by Ivan himself?) to convey a certain interpretation of events for the future audience. That's a myth
Meanwhile state cadastre documents made for taxation purposes, посошные книги, that illustrate extreme desolation of much of Central Russia by the end of his reign, were not created to convey any message for the audience, but for practical administrative purposes. That's a remain
Sounds simple. A myth is created on purpose, while a remain is a byproduct of a normal life process (business, administrative, legal, personal). In practice it's a bit more complicated. The same source can be either a 'myth' or a 'remain' depending on which data we draw from it
As a general rule, we use a source as a myth when we draw from it the very info its creator wanted to convey to us. But we can use it as a remain when we draw from it that info which the authors didn't really intend to give to us, but gave unwillingly
Let's consider Ivan the Terrible's Sinodik - where he listed people he killed or executed. There are about 3000 names there - mostly of nobility and elite. A typical passage 'Bojar X, his three sons, 10 gentlemen and the household servants - uncounted (без счета);
From here we can conclude that Oprichnina included indiscriminate massacres of the general population. Whom nobody counter, because nobody was interested. They were killed just because they happened to be there
So let's look at the medal again. What's interesting here? The dates of the military operation. The end date - March 18 when Russia officially annexed Crimea sounds logical. But the beginning - February 20 - is more tricky
Putin declared that he ordered the operation on February 23, after ex-President Yanukovich escaped to Russia. So the logic is: Ukraine used to have legitimate government which we recognised. It was illegally overthrown so now we have open hands
But why does it start with February 20 then? Most probably because the real order was given then, when Yanukovich was technically still in power. Which means that the operation was ordered and prepared during the regime which Russia considered legitimate
Which presents conflict in a very different way. Russia retrospectively presented its actions as reactive, while they probably were very, very proactive. More like seizing the opportunity than reacting to a crisis
So in a sense this medal might disclose a state secret. Which is very typical. Consider the Winter War with Finland in 1939. It started on November 30, 1939 - officially as a defensive response to a Finnish provocation
Which is a lie. Soviets planned the attack well in advance. How do we know it? From a Soviet military song "Принимай нас, Суоми-красавица"
Read the lyrics describing the Soviet invasion

Ломят танки широкие просеки,
Самолёты кружат в облаках,
Невысокое солнышко осени
Зажигает огни на штыках.

Tanks are breaking through the forest
Planes are circling in the clouds
The low autumn sun
Is shining the bayonets
*The low autumn sun*. If the war started on November 30 was a reactive response, would we have these lyrics? Unlikely. Apparently, the war was decided and prepared very well in advance - and planned in autumn. The army was prepared, the logistics organised, the songs written
But apparently as it often happens with big enterprises, the war had to be delayed. And delayed. And delayed. And launched much later than it was originally planned. So they kept the original lyrics about the autumn in the song about the war that had been scheduled for the autumn
Why did they keep it? One reason - changing the written lyrics and keeping the rhymes could be laborious. More real reason - nobody in the staff noticed it during all the hurry with preparation for the war. So now we have a nice source-remain on the real plans of Soviet leaders
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More from @kamilkazani

Sep 17
Wagner march was incredible, unprecedented to the extent most foreigners simply do not understand. Like, yes, Russia had its military coups in the 18th c. But those were the palace coups, all done by the Guards. Purely praetorian business with zero participation of the army.
Yes, there was a Kornilov affair in 1917, but that happened after the coup in capital. In March they overthrew the Tsar, then there was infighting in the capital, including a Bolshevik revolt in July, and only in September part of the army marches to St Petersburg.

Half a year after the coup. Not the same thing
I think the last time anything like that happened was in 1698, when the Musketeers marched on Moscow from the Western border. And then, next time, only in 2023.

(Army leaves the border/battlefield and marches on the capital without a previous praetorian coup in the capital)
Read 17 tweets
Sep 14
As a person from a post-Soviet country, I could not but find the institutions of People’s Republic of China oddly familiar. For every major institution of the Communist Russia, I could find a direct equivalent in Communist China.

With one major exception:

China had no KGB
For a post-Soviet person, that was a shocking realisation. For us, a gigantic, centralised, all-permeating and all powerful state security system appears to be almost a natural phenomenon. The earth. The sky. Force of gravity. KGB

All basic properties of reality we live in Image
It was hard to come up with any explanation for why the PRC that evolved in a close cooperation with the USSR, that used to be its client state, that emulated its major institutions, failed to copy this seemingly prerequisite (?) institution of state power

Unexplainable Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 30
Soviet Union was making a lot of weaponry.

No, it was making A LOT of it.

Soviet output of armaments was absolutely gargantuan, massive, unbeatable. “Extraordinary by any standard” , it was impossible for any other country to compete with. Image
From 1975 to 1988, the Soviets produced four times as many ICBMs and SLBMs, twice as many nuclear submarines, five times as many bombers, six times as many SAMs, three times as many tanks and six times as many artillery pieces as the United States.

Impossible to compete with. Image
Which raises a question:

How could the USSR produce so much?

It is not only that the USSR invested every dime into the military production. It is also that the Soviet industry was designed for the very large volumes of output, and worked the best under these very large volumesImage
Read 5 tweets
Aug 24
We are releasing our investigation on Roscosmos, covering a nearly exhaustive sample of Russian ICBM producing plants. We have investigated both primary ICBM/SLBM producers in Russia, a major producer of launchers, manufacturers of parts and components.

Image
We have five OSINT materials, one per each plant. To access our materials, you can either:

a) Click on a respective plant in the diagram
b) Choose it from the list below it

Follow the link: rhodus.com/roscosmos
Image
Each material includes an eclectic collection of sources, ranging from the TV propaganda to public tenders, and from the HR listings to academic dissertations. Combined altogether, they provide a holistic picture of Russian ICBM production base that no single type of source can. Image
Read 20 tweets
Aug 8
Two observations. In the recent years,

1. Silicon Valley has been turning red
2. MAGA discourse has been increasingly dominated by a few tech moguls

Now the thing with moguls is they are extreme outliers, who do not understand they are outliers.
Overall, you can expect tech moguls to have much, much higher level of reasoning abilities compared to the political/administrative class. But this comes at a cost. Their capacities for understanding the Other (masses count as the “Other”) are much poorer.
E.g. Putin is much, much less of an outlier in terms of intelligence compared to Thiel. He is much more average. At the same time, I am positively convinced that Putin understands the masses and works with masses much better.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 3
One problem with that is that too much of the supply chain for drone production is located in China. The thing with drones is that they grew out of toys industry. Cheap plastic & electronic crap that all of a sudden got military significance

America forgot how to produce cheap
Image
That is also the major problem I have with "China supports Russia" argument. China could wreck Ukraine easily, simply obstructing & delaying the drone/drone components shipments. That would be an instant military collapse for Ukraine.
Both Russian and Ukrainian drone industries are totally dependent upon the continuous shipments from China. To a very significant degree, their "production" is assembly from the Chinese components which are non alternative and cannot be substituted with anything else (as cheap).
Read 4 tweets

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