Russian theorist of history Lappo-Danilevsky classified primary sources into two categories - 'remains' (остатки) and 'myths' (предания). Let's discuss the difference between these two categories on example of this medal commemorating the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (thread)
'Myths' are sources that are purposefully created to convey a certain narrative for the future readers. E.g, a chronicle, a speech, a book. Meanwhile, a 'remain' is created for practical purposes and not for the future readers. Accounting books, court cases, military orders
For example, much of the narrative on Ivan the Terrible's reign, specifically the Oprichnina terror is based on the court chronicle - Litsevoy Svod. It was purposefully created (by Ivan himself?) to convey a certain interpretation of events for the future audience. That's a myth
Meanwhile state cadastre documents made for taxation purposes, посошные книги, that illustrate extreme desolation of much of Central Russia by the end of his reign, were not created to convey any message for the audience, but for practical administrative purposes. That's a remain
Sounds simple. A myth is created on purpose, while a remain is a byproduct of a normal life process (business, administrative, legal, personal). In practice it's a bit more complicated. The same source can be either a 'myth' or a 'remain' depending on which data we draw from it
As a general rule, we use a source as a myth when we draw from it the very info its creator wanted to convey to us. But we can use it as a remain when we draw from it that info which the authors didn't really intend to give to us, but gave unwillingly
Let's consider Ivan the Terrible's Sinodik - where he listed people he killed or executed. There are about 3000 names there - mostly of nobility and elite. A typical passage 'Bojar X, his three sons, 10 gentlemen and the household servants - uncounted (без счета);
From here we can conclude that Oprichnina included indiscriminate massacres of the general population. Whom nobody counter, because nobody was interested. They were killed just because they happened to be there
So let's look at the medal again. What's interesting here? The dates of the military operation. The end date - March 18 when Russia officially annexed Crimea sounds logical. But the beginning - February 20 - is more tricky
Putin declared that he ordered the operation on February 23, after ex-President Yanukovich escaped to Russia. So the logic is: Ukraine used to have legitimate government which we recognised. It was illegally overthrown so now we have open hands
But why does it start with February 20 then? Most probably because the real order was given then, when Yanukovich was technically still in power. Which means that the operation was ordered and prepared during the regime which Russia considered legitimate
Which presents conflict in a very different way. Russia retrospectively presented its actions as reactive, while they probably were very, very proactive. More like seizing the opportunity than reacting to a crisis
So in a sense this medal might disclose a state secret. Which is very typical. Consider the Winter War with Finland in 1939. It started on November 30, 1939 - officially as a defensive response to a Finnish provocation
Which is a lie. Soviets planned the attack well in advance. How do we know it? From a Soviet military song "Принимай нас, Суоми-красавица"
Read the lyrics describing the Soviet invasion
Ломят танки широкие просеки,
Самолёты кружат в облаках,
Невысокое солнышко осени
Зажигает огни на штыках.
Tanks are breaking through the forest
Planes are circling in the clouds
The low autumn sun
Is shining the bayonets
*The low autumn sun*. If the war started on November 30 was a reactive response, would we have these lyrics? Unlikely. Apparently, the war was decided and prepared very well in advance - and planned in autumn. The army was prepared, the logistics organised, the songs written
But apparently as it often happens with big enterprises, the war had to be delayed. And delayed. And delayed. And launched much later than it was originally planned. So they kept the original lyrics about the autumn in the song about the war that had been scheduled for the autumn
Why did they keep it? One reason - changing the written lyrics and keeping the rhymes could be laborious. More real reason - nobody in the staff noticed it during all the hurry with preparation for the war. So now we have a nice source-remain on the real plans of Soviet leaders
End of thread
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There's a subtle point here that 99,999% of Western commentariat is missing. Like, totally blind to. And that point is:
Building a huuuuuuuuuuge dam (or steel plant, or whatever) has been EVERYONE's plan of development. Like absolutely every developing country, no exceptions
Almost everyone who tried to develop did it in a USSR-ish way, via prestige projects. Build a dam. A steel plant. A huge plant. And then an even bigger one
And then you run out of money, and it all goes bust and all you have is postapocalyptic ruins for the kids to play in
If China did not go bust, in a way like almost every development project from the USSR to South Asia did, that probably means that you guys are wrong about China. Like totally wrong
What you describe is not China but the USSR, and its copies & emulations elsewhere
What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women