Two Hungarian bioinformatics experts noticed an odd thing in a genomic database. Soil samples taken on King George's Island, Antarctica in 2018 or 2019 by Chinese scientists included sequences from SARS-CoV-2. 1/7
In 3 of the samples there was enough to recover a 17x virus genome. It turns out to be a genome with three mutations that take it closer to the bat relatives, so may be an ancestral version of the virus. 2/7
Nobody is suggesting the virus was in Antarctica. The sequencing was done in Shanghai, by a firm called Sangon Biotech, which is frequently used by lots of labs in China including the Wuhan Institute of Virology. 3/7
So it's almost certainly a case of "barcode misassignment errors" during demultiplexing - a frequent contamination issue with this type of Illumina machine in sloppy sequencing labs. 4/7
The DNA was extracted in December 2019 and the sequencing was done soon after but the date is not certain: maybe in early 2020 by which time lots of virus samples were being tested. So maybe not very interesting after all. 5/7
But 3 things now suggest it might be interesting. First, the unique mutations hint at it being an ancestral variant. Second, when the Hungarians published the preprint, the data was taken off the database by the Chinese scientists who had deposited it, then later restored. 6/7
Third, the two Hungarians have now published a new preprint identifying other animal DNA in the same samples. These are not from seals or penguins, but from African green monkeys and Chinese hamsters. Both species are the source of commonly used laboratory cell lines. 7/7
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Britain's net-zero-obsessed energy policy came unstuck this week in six different ways:
1. Donald (Drill Baby Drill) Trump tore up electric-vehicle mandates and turned decisively against wind power. America, China and India are all going to increase their emissions by much more than we can possibly save.
2. Chris Wright testified how the shale revolution has turned America into now the world’s biggest producer of both oil and gas, ahead of even Saudi Arabia and Russia. That could have been our boom too.
Five years ago today, five things happened in Wuhan. 🧵
1. Doctors at Wuhan Central Hospital, Dr Ai Fen and Dr Li Wenliang, blew the whistle on the growing number of SARS-related coronavirus infections. They put a warning out on WeChat.
Both were severely reprimanded. Dr Ai was told: “You disregard the results of Wuhan’s urban construction since the [World] Military Games; you are a sinner affecting Wuhan’s stability and unity; you are the culprit undermining the City of Wuhan’s forward development.”
Dr Li was forced to sign a humiliating confession of sharing “untruthful information”. He later died of the infection, which came to be called Covid.
After bad floods in 1957 the Spanish government built a string of dams in the hills to hold back water and diverted the Turia river away from Valencia. For more than six decades the system worked well. Why did it fail this year?
The Spanish government has been removing dams at a furious rate. Under a European Union programme to encourage the restoration of rivers to their wild state for the benefit of fish migration, in 2021 it got rid of 108 dams and weirs; in 2022, another 133.
Worse is the failure to build at Cheste, specifically designed to prevent flooding, to ‘regulate the flows coming from the upper basin of the Poyo and Pozalet ravines’. It was approved in 2001 as part of a National Hydrological Plan.
No, there is no new evidence that Covid originated with a raccoon dog in a market in Wuhan. The public relations blitz that surrounded the publication this week of a paper in Cell from a team whose previous papers have been debunked caught some headlines, as it was designed to do.
The market theory is still implausible, as George Gao, the man who led the investigation of that market, Ralph Baric, the world’s leading coronavirologist, and many others insist.
The new study says there were mammals on sale in the market. We knew that: it was in our book published three years ago. It says there was SARS-CoV-2 in the market; yup, also in our book.
In this thread I present the ten main arguments that persuaded the audience at the debate in New York on Monday to agree overwhelmingly (65% to 12%) that covid began as a laboratory accident.
Summary: a virus turned up in:
exactly the right city
at exactly the right time
as they were planning exactly the right experiments
that would put exactly the right insertion
into exactly the right place
in exactly the right gene
of exactly the right kind of virus.
1. The outbreak began not just in one of the very few cities doing research on this kind of virus but in the city with the biggest SARS-like virus research program *in the world*.
It was described as “the world’s leading coronavirus ecology lab” by @stgoldst. But it’s more than that: it’s world’s leading sars-like virus manipulation lab.
These kind of viruses are found a thousand miles away from Wuhan. That’s a distance of Florida to New York or Rome to London.
And we know of only one animal species that regularly travelled that route, carrying lots of viruses. That animal was the scientists themselves.
They collected over 16,000 bat viruses all over southern China and southeast Asia and brought them a long way north to… Wuhan.
The 9 closest relatives of SARS-CoV-2 at the time of the outbreak were in the freezer of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, as revealed by @TheSeeker268 and others.
Coincidences do happen, but when foot and mouth broke out in 2007 just down the road from the world’s reference lab for foot and mouth virus, people did not think it was just a coincidence. They investigated and sure enough it was a lab leak.