Thread by @StarCityBen

Let's talk Innistrad: Double Feature. In particular, let's talk the finances of the foils in this set. They have a unique treatment, they are one per pack, but most importantly - they are all going bonkers in price right now. (Thread) #MTG

There are 24 foil cards in a box of Double Feature. On average, people are reporting opening 2 foil Rares and 1 foil Mythic per box. There are 128 Rares and 40 Mythics in the set. (/2)

In order to open one of every Foil Mythic rare, you'd basically represent 40 boxes of Double Feature being opened. There are 24 packs a box, and most places are selling at $10 a pack. Getting one of each Mythic Foil represents $9,600 worth of packs having been opened. (/3)

But here's the kicker. Let's say that you want to represent 1,000 of each Foil Mythic. That would be 40,000 total boxes of Double Feature being opened. Why did I choose 1,000? That's the number kicked around for the AFR Ampersand Promos. (/4)

Double Feature was not a popular set. It's one of the few WPN products that didn't sell through at the distributor level immediately, the price point is really high per pack, and it wasn't well received by most consumers.

https://twitter.com/TolarianCollege/status/1486867548742172672

(/5)

No matter how badly this all went down, the foils were the brightest spot of the product. They're different than other foils and genuinely scarce. Even if every Double Feature box was opened, the Silver Screen foil Mythics (and Rares) would be at a low count. (/6)

There have not been a lot of these cards listed on TCG Player, Cardmarket, or Ebay. While I think some of the prices people are listing for right now are absurd, I'm not unconvinced that the top-tier cards of the set are going to drop in value. (/7)

Is a foil Curse of Shaken Faith (a Rare) worth $40? No, it's not. It's worth more than what people were initially listing for ($2-$4), but "bulk" foil Rares from Double Feature are going to be closer to $5-$10 than $40. (/8)

Is Foil Meathook Massacre (The most valuable card in the set) worth the current $400 listed price? I'm less in doubt on this card, given the price history of the Tiamat Ampersand started at around $400, and regularly sells for $750-$1000 now (and they sell at those prices) (/9)

While there is a current buyout/price inflation on many of the bad Silver Screen foils, the combination of small print run, lack of opening, and unpopularity of the main (non-foil) product is going to make the "Good" (Playable) cards be worth a lot in the long term. (/thread)

POSTSCRIPT: The market has been so desensitized to foils (Due to the market being flooded by Collector Pack/Set Pack foils) that most people don't know how to a price foils at the old / Booster pack only drop rate (Time Spiral Remastered, Double Feature, Battlebond).