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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Feb 12, 2022 • 20 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Thread of threads

Large threads will be published here every Friday and sometimes on additional days. Also I am now working on setting up a substack - gonna post here when done. At this point let me give a guide to navigate through already published threads - from older to newer
1. Chechnya and Dagestan An introductory thread to the federalism (and diversity) in Russia dealing with these two Caucasian republics. I'm gonna do a bigger blogpost on them, but it will be paywalled
2. Introduction to a second cluster of ethnic republics in Russia - Idel-Ural As a native of the region I find it the most interesting. For example it's the northernmost Islamic land in the world and it has the last authentic pagans in Europe
3. Imperiogenesis argument Why living near the border of the Great Eurasia Steppe is a good predictor of living in a very big empire/country
4. A very brief introduction to the origin's of the Putin's regime and political structure of modern Russia. How new elite was born in the corridors of the St Petersburg City Council, how did these guys take power and what did they do after
5. Why Stalin purged the Old Bolsheviks Here I introduce the concept of assabiyah. I find that the idea of assabiyah and its dynamics as described by Ibn Haldun are highly relevant for understanding Russian (and not only Russian) politics
6. An introduction to the concept of 'sources-myths' and 'sources-remains' important for future discussions What can a medal commemorating the annexation of Crimea or a song dedicated to the invasion of Finland in 1939 tell of real intentions of Kremlin
7. Political institutions of the Golden Horde and how did the Horde affect Russia The usual assumption that the Horde was an 'Oriental despoty' is just false. However, the argument that it did contribute to the development of Russian absolutism is correct
That's all for now - I'll be adding new threads here as they are published. Every Friday, may be more frequently. Substack coming soon
8. Assabiyahs in Russian history. Part 1: Praetorians, 1697-1825.
9. Russian-Ukrainian relations in the context of Russian domestic policy

10. On the Polish period of Russian history

11. Russian demographic trends and how they're gonna reshape the country

12. War is problematic because it makes general too powerful. You gonna kill hella lot of them to show dominance

13. A crash introduction to the Ukrainian ethnopoliticao situation
Introduction to the geography of Ukraine

15. Russia and Ukraine: a history

16. On the Putin's elite and the rise of Putin himself

17. Putinism and the rule of state security
18. Three theses on the Russian-Ukrainian War

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 17
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting rulerImage
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
Read 7 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 16
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec

The link is in the first comment Image
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download



By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.comImage
Key takeaways:

1. Missile production is mostly about machining
2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise
3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually

That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive processImage
Read 15 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 25
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵Image
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality

Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians doImage
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama

"No, he's a decent family man, citizen"

In America one thing is tied with another
Read 23 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 19
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.Image
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective

It is the factImage
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him

He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stabilityImage
Read 8 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 18
On Friday, @navalny died (most probably killed) in prison. This is a good time to discuss the prospects of Russian opposition and the future transition of political power, once Putin is gone. This is also a good occasion to debunk some pervasive myths on the mechanics of power🧵 Image
First, getting rid of @navalny was probably a correct decision on behalf of Kremlin. Execution of this murder may have been suboptimal (unprofessional, etc.). But the very idea to eliminate him was reasonable and makes total sense. There is nothing crazy or irrational about it
This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:

Bloody tyrants rule longer

The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any otherImage
Image
Read 19 tweets

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