Thread by @perfiliev

Do I think the war in Ukraine will happen?

Until yesterday, I was confident there won't be any military action from Russia.

(At least no more than the undercover warfare that's been going on since 2014).

There are many reasons for this 👇

Ever since Crimea, Russia became isolated and took the backstage on the global geopolitical arena.

Putin was feeling a little lonely since no one took him seriously.

This Ukraine situation was a great way to gain back the attention and respect that he was seeking.

He didn't even need to invade.

Just putting a few tanks here and there allowed him to book back-to-back meetings with world leaders, who were all desperate to negotiate with him.

Moreover, if Putin were serious about invading (like he was with Crimea), he would just go for it.

Why the whole show of force?

Because this pollical theatre is very convenient for everyone.

Putin pretends to invade.

Biden and the West pretend to take him seriously.

Everyone's a winner, and there is no war.

Biden can go back and report that he prevented WWIII.

Russian state media can report about major concessions that Putin negotiated for the great people of Russia (or about whatever the fck they want, really...).

Win-win.

But yesterday's escalation casts doubt whether this is still pretend.

It's one thing to hold meetings and talks, being "deeply concerned" and taking the whole situation "very seriously".

But it's another to take action and start evacuating your staff.

Moreover, this is Putin we're talking about.

Applying logic and reason isn't exactly the right approach.

He can easily invade simply to prove a point.

Just because the world leaders didn't show him enough respect.

Or for any other reason, real or imaginary.

And he can do that despite even the most severe consequences on him personally.

Speaking of which...

Putin has been allowed to get away with many things for decades, both domestically and internationally (Litvinenko, Magnitsky, Georgia, Crimea, MH17, Skripals, Navalny...).

All without any significant consequences.

After each one, he just got bolder and more confident.

There's really no reason for him to believe that he'll face any serious consequences this time.

Overall, I still think (and sure fcking hope) that the war will not happen.

But I'm less confident in my view now.

And certainty more concerned given the recent developments.