Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 14, 2022 24 tweets 8 min read Read on X
How Russia became Polish (spoiler: Ukraine helped)

Russia's been historically affected by many cultures. German impact of 18-19th cc is well-recognised, Tatar impact of 14-16th - only grudgingly. But ppl are unaware of Polish influence that transformed Russia in 17th c (thread) Image
It all started in 1598 with the death of Fyodor Ivanovich. He was the last Rurikid on the Russian throne - descendant of Vikings who reportedly ruled Russian states since 862. After his death Russia entered into dynastic crisis and quickly spiralled into chaos Image
Poland-Lithuania first entered the conflict by supporting pretenders - False-Dmitry I and II. Then Poland got involved directly. Poles smashed Russian armies, captured Tsar Shuisky and occupied Moscow. They raided Russia very deep north and east putting it to fire and sword Image
I just randomly chose one of many towns that were burnt down - Galich-Mersky. 'Mersky' refers to 'Merya' - Finno-Ugric tribe. That means it was a very remote fort built in then Finnic land and isn't easily accessible even now. Still Polish cavalry got there and burnt it Image
What did Russia do? Well, it submitted. The Bojar Duma (kinda House of Lords) elected Polish prince Wladislaw as the new Tsar. Why didn't he become a Tsar then? For two reasons. First, he didn't convert to Orthodox Christianity. Second, he didn't bother to come to his coronation Image
In other words, Polish prince didn't become Russian Tsar because he didn't do the formalities. So the chaos continued. Finally, the levy from Nizhny Novgorod made Polish garrison of Kremlin to surrender and slaughtered them all. Next year, new Romanov dynasty was elected Image
One could assume that the Old Muscovy was restored. I disagree. I will argue that the Old Muscovy died in the Time of Troubles and new New Muscovy was different. The effect of Polish destruction of Old Muscovy was far stronger than that of destruction of Old Prussia by Napoleon Image
Let's start with the language. How were the noblemen called? In Old Muscovy the aristocracy were called Bojars, and the gentry - Dvorjans. In New Muscovy gentry called themselves шляхта. It was a borrowed Polish term szlachta. Russian nobles styled themselves after the Poles
Let's open biography of admiral Ushakov: 'In 1761 he was admitted to a Szlachta (Dvorjan) Naval College'. Sounds strange. Well, initially both Army and Navy academies were called Szlachta colleges. They were renamed to Dvorjan in 1760s when old Polish terms became problematic Image
So the new Russian nobility called themselves szlachta and probably thought of themselves similarly. That coincided with a huge social revolution in Russia which is described empirically but not conceptualised theoretically. The enormous expansion of serfdom in 1610-1620s Image
How did Russia look like in 16th c? According to the tax documents (we remember these are 'sources-remains' not BS chronicles), it was predominantly a country of:

1. single-homesteads or small villages
2. personally free peasants
Ofc serfdom existed. But it was mostly clustered in:

1. Moscow
2. Tver
3. Novgorod

Moscow (orange) was the seat of power and much of slaveowning class lived here. Tver and Novgorod were new conquests of Ivan III (pink) and their population was mostly turned into property Image
What happened in the 1610-1620s was the huge expansion of serfdom. What had previously been one of many statuses of peasants now became the one predominant. Almost every farmer living all the way northward till Beloozero (see that small lake above Moscow) became private property
Clerical serfdom by monasteries occasionally expanded even further, till the White Sea. Consider a case from Arkhangelsk. In the 1600s Siiski monastery was suing peasants of two villages, insisting they're its property. Peasants objected. In 1610 they won the case in the court
But with Romanov election rules of the game changed. Now monastery hegumen Jonah simply sent his armed servants who destroyed houses, broke stoves and forced peasants to remove to the monastery villages. They had to kill one of them to persuade others spbiiran.nw.ru/wp-content/upl…
This shows the social trend of the age. New authorities award gentry with land and serfs. To control their property better new landlords move them into bigger villages. What used to be a country of small farms and free peasants becomes a country of large plantations and peons
Very good book that I strongly recommend. It's a pre-Revolutionary study of the land tax of Muscovy and what data we can draw from the tax documents. I must warn it's not narrative-entered and is not an easy reading Image
This one is more pleasant. It's a very erudite and well written book by early Soviet historian Pokrovsky. Promoted in 1920s, cancelled in 1930s. His approach and conclusions were very similar to what Braudel or Wallerstern were doing much later. Kinda world-systems theory Image
That wasn't unique. Everywhere to the East of Elbe peasants were losing their freedom, their rights were reduced, duties expanded = second serfdom. Why did it happen? Usual explanation is - so that landlords could export food to feed the booming cities of the Western Europe Image
That was a major factor in Poland with its huge grain export via Danzig which fed much of the Northern European cities. But Muscovy didn't really export grain. It didn't even have decent access to the world ocean. Why were its trends so similar to Eastern European then? Image
I'd speculate this can be impact of the Polish folwark. May be that's an example of what Warren Buffet called institutional inertia. Most of what we're doing, we're doing cuz we did it in the past or cuz someone else's doing it. Especially someone attractive, whom we'd like to be Image
Polish effect was apparent in the most important institute - in the army. Many assume Westernisation of the army was started by Peter. Some know it started earlier. In fact, the first 'Foreign-styled regiments' in Muscovy were raised in the year 1630 for the war with Poland
They were established by Alexander Leslie - a Scottish mercenary who previously served in Poland. Very typical. Poland had many Scots, too many. In fact English parliamentarians in 1600s pointed to the unfortunate Poland overrun by the Scotch immigation, arguing against the Union Image
That was only the prelude however. The real rapid and irreversible Polonization of Russia which as later Eurasianists (e.g. Trubetskoy) lamented, destroyed the old Muscovite culture and tradition started with the annexation of Left-Bank Ukraine in 1654. To be continued tomorrow

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More from @kamilkazani

May 19
I have repeatedly pointed out that the modern Russian military industry has little continuity with the Soviet one. Destroyed in the 1990s, it was effectively created anew in the Putin's era. Still, it may sound too abstract, so I will zoom in on one specific example:

Stankomash Image
Located in Chelyabink, Stankomash industrial park hosts major producers for the nuclear, shipbuilding, oil & gas and energy industries. It also produces weaponry, including mine trawls and artillery ammunition (based on the open sources)

All under the umbrella of Konar company Image
Some examples of the Stankomash manufacture. These photos well illustrate the philosophy of Soviet/Russian dual use industry. In the peace time, you focus primarily on civilian products, in the war time you convert it all to the production of weaponry.


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Read 27 tweets
May 17
No offence, but this is a completely imbecile, ignorant, ridiculous framing. I have no explanation for all this debate except for a complete & determined ignorance of the foreign policy making class, and their refusal to learn literally anything about the material world.
"Components" framing makes sense when we are discussing drones. Why? Because drones are literally made from the imported components. You buy like 90% of them in China, and may be you make like 10% domestically. For the most part, you just assemble what you bought in China.
Not the case with missiles. Most of what the missile consists of, including its most critical, hard to make parts is produced domestically. Why? Because you cannot buy it abroad. More often than not, you cannot buy it in China. You can only make it yourself, domestically.
Read 9 tweets
May 12
Contrary to the popular opinion, Andrey Belousov's appointment as a Minister of Defense makes perfect sense. From the Kremlin's perspective, war is primarily about industry & economy. Now Belousov is the central economic & industrial thinker (and planner) in the Russian gov.
Born into a Soviet Brahmin economist family, Belousov is an exceedingly rare case of an academician making a successful career in the Russian gov. Even more noteworthy, he rose to the position of power through his academic work and publications.

This is unique, ultra rare.Image
Belousov's career track:

1976-1981 Moscow State University ("economic cybernetics"). Basically, economics, but with the heavy use of then new computers.
1981-1986 Central Economic Mathematical Institute
1986-2006 Instutute of Economic Forecasting
2006-2024 Government
Read 8 tweets
May 7
If you want to imagine Russia, imagine a depressive, depopulating town. Now on the outskirts of a town, there is an outrageously over-equipped, overfunded strategic enterprise that has literally everything money can buy in the world. It feels like a spaceship from another planet
Strategic industry is extremely generously equipped. Western companies look scoundrels in comparison. That’s why I am so sceptical about the whole “corruption” narrative. Not that it’s wrong. It’s just that it is the perspective of a little, envious bitch.
What needs to be funded, will be funded. It will actually be overfunded and most literally drowned in money. Obviously, overfunding the strategic sector comes at the cost of underfunding almost everything else (like urban infrastructure). That’s why the town looks so grim.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 29
We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?


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The strategic missiles industry appears to be highly secretive and impenetrable to the observers. And yet, it is perfectly OSINTable, based on the publicly available sources. This investigation sample illustrates our approach and methodology (31 p.)

assets-global.website-files.com/65ca3387040186…
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Step 1. State Propaganda.

Our first and invaluable source is the state propaganda, such as the federal and regional TV channels, corporate media, social media and so on. It provides abundant visual evidence, particularly on the hardware used in the production of weaponry.Image
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Read 9 tweets
Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets

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