Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 14, 2022 24 tweets 8 min read Read on X
How Russia became Polish (spoiler: Ukraine helped)

Russia's been historically affected by many cultures. German impact of 18-19th cc is well-recognised, Tatar impact of 14-16th - only grudgingly. But ppl are unaware of Polish influence that transformed Russia in 17th c (thread) Image
It all started in 1598 with the death of Fyodor Ivanovich. He was the last Rurikid on the Russian throne - descendant of Vikings who reportedly ruled Russian states since 862. After his death Russia entered into dynastic crisis and quickly spiralled into chaos Image
Poland-Lithuania first entered the conflict by supporting pretenders - False-Dmitry I and II. Then Poland got involved directly. Poles smashed Russian armies, captured Tsar Shuisky and occupied Moscow. They raided Russia very deep north and east putting it to fire and sword Image
I just randomly chose one of many towns that were burnt down - Galich-Mersky. 'Mersky' refers to 'Merya' - Finno-Ugric tribe. That means it was a very remote fort built in then Finnic land and isn't easily accessible even now. Still Polish cavalry got there and burnt it Image
What did Russia do? Well, it submitted. The Bojar Duma (kinda House of Lords) elected Polish prince Wladislaw as the new Tsar. Why didn't he become a Tsar then? For two reasons. First, he didn't convert to Orthodox Christianity. Second, he didn't bother to come to his coronation Image
In other words, Polish prince didn't become Russian Tsar because he didn't do the formalities. So the chaos continued. Finally, the levy from Nizhny Novgorod made Polish garrison of Kremlin to surrender and slaughtered them all. Next year, new Romanov dynasty was elected Image
One could assume that the Old Muscovy was restored. I disagree. I will argue that the Old Muscovy died in the Time of Troubles and new New Muscovy was different. The effect of Polish destruction of Old Muscovy was far stronger than that of destruction of Old Prussia by Napoleon Image
Let's start with the language. How were the noblemen called? In Old Muscovy the aristocracy were called Bojars, and the gentry - Dvorjans. In New Muscovy gentry called themselves шляхта. It was a borrowed Polish term szlachta. Russian nobles styled themselves after the Poles
Let's open biography of admiral Ushakov: 'In 1761 he was admitted to a Szlachta (Dvorjan) Naval College'. Sounds strange. Well, initially both Army and Navy academies were called Szlachta colleges. They were renamed to Dvorjan in 1760s when old Polish terms became problematic Image
So the new Russian nobility called themselves szlachta and probably thought of themselves similarly. That coincided with a huge social revolution in Russia which is described empirically but not conceptualised theoretically. The enormous expansion of serfdom in 1610-1620s Image
How did Russia look like in 16th c? According to the tax documents (we remember these are 'sources-remains' not BS chronicles), it was predominantly a country of:

1. single-homesteads or small villages
2. personally free peasants
Ofc serfdom existed. But it was mostly clustered in:

1. Moscow
2. Tver
3. Novgorod

Moscow (orange) was the seat of power and much of slaveowning class lived here. Tver and Novgorod were new conquests of Ivan III (pink) and their population was mostly turned into property Image
What happened in the 1610-1620s was the huge expansion of serfdom. What had previously been one of many statuses of peasants now became the one predominant. Almost every farmer living all the way northward till Beloozero (see that small lake above Moscow) became private property
Clerical serfdom by monasteries occasionally expanded even further, till the White Sea. Consider a case from Arkhangelsk. In the 1600s Siiski monastery was suing peasants of two villages, insisting they're its property. Peasants objected. In 1610 they won the case in the court
But with Romanov election rules of the game changed. Now monastery hegumen Jonah simply sent his armed servants who destroyed houses, broke stoves and forced peasants to remove to the monastery villages. They had to kill one of them to persuade others spbiiran.nw.ru/wp-content/upl…
This shows the social trend of the age. New authorities award gentry with land and serfs. To control their property better new landlords move them into bigger villages. What used to be a country of small farms and free peasants becomes a country of large plantations and peons
Very good book that I strongly recommend. It's a pre-Revolutionary study of the land tax of Muscovy and what data we can draw from the tax documents. I must warn it's not narrative-entered and is not an easy reading Image
This one is more pleasant. It's a very erudite and well written book by early Soviet historian Pokrovsky. Promoted in 1920s, cancelled in 1930s. His approach and conclusions were very similar to what Braudel or Wallerstern were doing much later. Kinda world-systems theory Image
That wasn't unique. Everywhere to the East of Elbe peasants were losing their freedom, their rights were reduced, duties expanded = second serfdom. Why did it happen? Usual explanation is - so that landlords could export food to feed the booming cities of the Western Europe Image
That was a major factor in Poland with its huge grain export via Danzig which fed much of the Northern European cities. But Muscovy didn't really export grain. It didn't even have decent access to the world ocean. Why were its trends so similar to Eastern European then? Image
I'd speculate this can be impact of the Polish folwark. May be that's an example of what Warren Buffet called institutional inertia. Most of what we're doing, we're doing cuz we did it in the past or cuz someone else's doing it. Especially someone attractive, whom we'd like to be Image
Polish effect was apparent in the most important institute - in the army. Many assume Westernisation of the army was started by Peter. Some know it started earlier. In fact, the first 'Foreign-styled regiments' in Muscovy were raised in the year 1630 for the war with Poland
They were established by Alexander Leslie - a Scottish mercenary who previously served in Poland. Very typical. Poland had many Scots, too many. In fact English parliamentarians in 1600s pointed to the unfortunate Poland overrun by the Scotch immigation, arguing against the Union Image
That was only the prelude however. The real rapid and irreversible Polonization of Russia which as later Eurasianists (e.g. Trubetskoy) lamented, destroyed the old Muscovite culture and tradition started with the annexation of Left-Bank Ukraine in 1654. To be continued tomorrow

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More from @kamilkazani

Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
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In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting rulerImage
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
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Mar 16
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec

The link is in the first comment Image
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download



By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.comImage
Key takeaways:

1. Missile production is mostly about machining
2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise
3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually

That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive processImage
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Feb 25
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵Image
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality

Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians doImage
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama

"No, he's a decent family man, citizen"

In America one thing is tied with another
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Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.Image
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It is the factImage
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him

He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stabilityImage
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This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:

Bloody tyrants rule longer

The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any otherImage
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