Thread by @ChrisMurphyCT

1/ It's maddening watching Putin hold these cards. It feels like he's in charge, holding us all hostage.

But not really - he is operating from a position of severe weakness. Having failed to coax Ukraine back into his orbit, a potentially disastrous invasion is his last resort.

2/ Remember how we got here. Ukraine used to be a Soviet republic, and then for most of its post-Soviet independence, its leaders operated in close association with Kremlin.

Then, in 2013 something happened.

3/ The Ukrainian people realized that a political and economic dependence on Russia was a road to nowhere. So they rose up, and demanded to become part of the EU.

Putin and his stooges in Ukraine panicked, and they gunned down the protestors.

4/ That was the last straw, and Putin's toadies were run out of the country and the nation elected ardent pro-Europe and pro-U.S. leadership.

Putin invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine, but that just hardened the people's anti-Russia sentiments.

5/ By 2021, Putin had no options left. So he panicked again.

This time, he gambled that a threatened invasion would collapse Zelensky's government, create tensions and fissures within NATO, or result in the West folding and agreeing to his demands.

None of that happened.

6/ In fact, the opposite happened. America and Europe rallied to support Zelensky, sending him more arms and money. NATO united, and sent more troops to its border with Russia. And Putin's demands went nowhere - the West did not capitulate.

7/ Now, Putin has two ways out. Back down, or proceed with a plan he never really wanted - an expensive, costly, and potentially disastrous invasion of the largest country in Europe.

8/ It's hard to fathom what the biggest land war in Europe since 1945 will look like, but it could be cataclysmic for Putin. The battle itself will likely be long and deadly. The Ukrainian people will not submit - they will fight back in a long, bloody insurgency.

9/ And the sanctions from the U.S. and the rest of the world will be devastating - nothing like the relatively milquetoast sanctions Russia has endured so far. The combination of the cost of the war and the cost of the sanctions will destabilize Putin's hold on power.

10/ And all for what? To force a country back into your orbit against its wishes? A nation that used to rely on you willingly? All of this just to achieve pre-2013 status quo, but with thousands dead and a Russian economy in ruins?

And so how is Putin holding all the cards?