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Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Feb 15, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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USA Suicidology Update, 2020-2021
********
I can now create a 2021 provisional estimate, with error, for the suicide rates for 2021. My method will be described at the end of the thread.

Contrary to the #moralpanic 2020-2021 suicide rates did NOT increase.

/1

The rate for both males and females in the United States will likely be within the expected fluctuation of the previous years, and still less than the "peak" of 2018 pre-pandemic.

/2

For Adults 61-84, likely a slight uptick for men but within 2019 levels, and for women no overall change.

/3

For adults 41-60, the significant drop seen in 2020 will likely continue for both men and women.

/4

For adults 25-40, no changes are significant but there seems to be a continuing and increase of about 2.5% per year in the male rate since 2009.

/5

For YOUNG ADULTS (18-24), **please note that neither change is outside of the error prediction so this is best described as** no significant differences. If the point estimates hold, they will both be highs. However, neither increase unprecedented or "A TSUNAMI" if they hold.

/6

For PEDIATRIC POPULATION (0-17), **please note that neither change is outside of the error prediction so this is best described as** no significant differences. Even if the point estimates hold, none of these increases unprecedented or "A TSUNAMI".

/7

All-in-all, its looking like 2021 will be a mundane year for final suicide numbers. In the coming days I will do my best to take a peek at the racial divides.

/8

"2021 ERROR SIZE"
I ran a model in which all the previous "Jan thru June" rates were compared to that year's final rate, to get the most conservative (largest) error in this prediction.

For the second year in a row, the "TSUNAMI OF SUICIDE" moral panic will not test true.

/9

"2021 Provisional Rate"

The 2021 rate is then displayed as the Jan-June rate (adjusted to to increase by 2.6% when provisional to final, based off of previous CDC Wonder updates), with the error bars above.

/10

@CDCgov

Source: @CDCgov WONDER

/done

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Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Dec 16

Vaccines and "placebo control"

Placebo-controlled trials compare a vaccine to an inactive substance (placebo). This helps measure how effective the vaccine is. In the case of vaccines, often, the placebo is not "saline", but rather a previous vaccine or vaccine solution.

/1

When a safe, effective vaccine already exists, using an inactive placebo means some participants are deliberately left unprotected against disease. This creates unnecessary harm.

/2

Ethical standards require minimizing harm and offering participants the best available care. When a proven vaccine exists, denying it to anyone—regardless of location—is unethical.

/3

Read 9 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Dec 15

🚨🇨🇦Correcting Disinfo🇨🇦🚨
"COVID vaccination didn't work"

In Canada during the Delta wave, vaccination prevented infection (unvaccinated 6x higher chance of being infected). As well, being unvaccinated led to a 22X chance of being hospitalized and an 18X chance of dying.

/1

For confirmed infections, the IFR for unvaccinated was a whopping 2.4%. The IFR for being vaccinated was much lower, both due to preventing infection and reducing the consequences of it.

Delta was a very deadly strain, and unvaccinated people died/suffered the most.

/2

When Omicron hit, it was a strain that evaded vaccinations, leading to enormous numbers of infections, even in vaccinated people.

However, the immunity protection vs hospitalization and death was still enormous, and unvaccinated Canadians were 12X more likely to die.

/3

Read 7 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 30

Correcting revisionist history:
"COVID is not a problem for young people in the US"

Covid responsible (not "with", underlying cause) for 2% of all deaths <20. That's 1 out of every 50 deaths of all kids who die. #1 in infectious diseases, 5th in disease overall.

/1

COVID-19 deaths created 300,000 American orphans, 330,000 if we count "primary caregivers" and 380,000 if we count "secondary caregivers". That's a lot of childhood harm.

2x as common for Black kids
4x as common for Indigenous kids
1.6X as common for Hispanic kids

/2

Our most vulnerable children, with medical illnesses, suffered the most during the pandemic. Children with heart disease, respiratory disease, neurologic diseases, and chromosomal abnormalities suffered more severe symptoms than did children without those conditions.

/3

Read 6 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 28

🏳️‍⚧️FAQ for posterity:

Why do you use pronouns in your bio?
Because it's an easy way to promote inclusivity & to increase awareness of gender expression. It costs me nothing, &because I work with kids who are establishing their identity it shows that I don't make assumptions.

/1

Is being transgender a mental illness?
Being transgender is not a mental illness. It is a natural variation of human phenotype, though some transgender individuals may experience distress, called gender dysphoria, which is addressed through appropriate care.

/2

Can a man be a woman?
Yes. Some individuals identify as a gender different from their assigned sex at birth.

"What is a woman?"
A woman is a female by identity. This can refer to biological sex identity or social gender identity, depending on the context.

/3

Read 14 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 24

🧵RFK Jr. is an antivax, AIDS-denying, absolutely antiscientific conspiracist.🧵

ANTIVAX:
“They get [vaccinated], that night they have a fever of 103, they go to sleep, and three months later their brain is gone... This is a Holocaust, what this is doing to our country.”

/1

ANTIVAX:
"I do believe that autism does come from vaccines"

Metaanalyses involving MILLIONS of children have confirmed there is no link. The lie started with another antivaxxer, disgraced fraudster Andrew Wakefield, who fabricated data.

/2

ANTIVAX:
"I've read all the science on autism and I can tell you, if you want to know... If it didn't come from the vaccines, then where did it come from?"

Autism primarily from combo of genetic factors & early brain development differences.

/3

Read 10 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 19

Battling Election Misinformation
Part 2: "The Mandate"

Contrary to media/republican pronouncements, the election of Donald Trump was one of the narrowest (by popular vote, +1.73%) in history, with only 7 elections since 1800 being narrower.

/1

In fact, if we look at the margin of victory when we include all eligible voters, Trump wins with 31.3% of the voting population, compared to Harris' 30.2% and 1% going to other candidates. 37.4% did not vote.

If we only include voters, Trump wins 50.03% to 49.97%

/2

When we look at the electoral college results, Trump won 58% of available electoral college votes. This would rank his election 41st out of 57 elections since 1800.

/3

Read 7 tweets

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