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Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Feb 15, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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USA Suicidology Update, 2020-2021
********
I can now create a 2021 provisional estimate, with error, for the suicide rates for 2021. My method will be described at the end of the thread.

Contrary to the #moralpanic 2020-2021 suicide rates did NOT increase.

/1

The rate for both males and females in the United States will likely be within the expected fluctuation of the previous years, and still less than the "peak" of 2018 pre-pandemic.

/2

For Adults 61-84, likely a slight uptick for men but within 2019 levels, and for women no overall change.

/3

For adults 41-60, the significant drop seen in 2020 will likely continue for both men and women.

/4

For adults 25-40, no changes are significant but there seems to be a continuing and increase of about 2.5% per year in the male rate since 2009.

/5

For YOUNG ADULTS (18-24), **please note that neither change is outside of the error prediction so this is best described as** no significant differences. If the point estimates hold, they will both be highs. However, neither increase unprecedented or "A TSUNAMI" if they hold.

/6

For PEDIATRIC POPULATION (0-17), **please note that neither change is outside of the error prediction so this is best described as** no significant differences. Even if the point estimates hold, none of these increases unprecedented or "A TSUNAMI".

/7

All-in-all, its looking like 2021 will be a mundane year for final suicide numbers. In the coming days I will do my best to take a peek at the racial divides.

/8

"2021 ERROR SIZE"
I ran a model in which all the previous "Jan thru June" rates were compared to that year's final rate, to get the most conservative (largest) error in this prediction.

For the second year in a row, the "TSUNAMI OF SUICIDE" moral panic will not test true.

/9

"2021 Provisional Rate"

The 2021 rate is then displayed as the Jan-June rate (adjusted to to increase by 2.6% when provisional to final, based off of previous CDC Wonder updates), with the error bars above.

/10

@CDCgov

Source: @CDCgov WONDER

/done

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More from @tylerblack32

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 19

Battling Election Misinformation
Part 2: "The Mandate"

Contrary to media/republican pronouncements, the election of Donald Trump was one of the narrowest (by popular vote, +1.73%) in history, with only 7 elections since 1800 being narrower.

/1

In fact, if we look at the margin of victory when we include all eligible voters, Trump wins with 31.3% of the voting population, compared to Harris' 30.2% and 1% going to other candidates. 37.4% did not vote.

If we only include voters, Trump wins 50.03% to 49.97%

/2

When we look at the electoral college results, Trump won 58% of available electoral college votes. This would rank his election 41st out of 57 elections since 1800.

/3

Read 7 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 15

"[AIDS] is not being caused by a virus. It's not a virus... These people are dying because of 'poppers'... they were people who were part of a gay lifestyle... "

"This is not a viral disease, but it's a disease that is environmental."

- HHS Secretary Nominee RFK Jr

/1

Chemicals in water are causing trans kids: "A lot of the problems we see in kids... are coming from chemical exposures, including a lot of the sexual dysphoria that we’re seeing."

- HHS Secretary Nominee RFK Jr

/2

Wifi radiation causes autism, allergies, asthma, eczema: “I think it degrades your mitochondria and it opens your blood-brain barrier,”

- HHS Secretary Nominee RFK Jr

/3

Read 7 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 7

🧵Battling Antivax Disinfo🧵
Vaccination did NOT increase cancer deaths.

Here I took the 6 deadliest cancers (all 5 survival rates under 50%) in a highly vaccinated population (25-54), and we can see ZERO evidence of vaccine-related cancer deaths, all the way to May 2024.

/1

If i move ages to 55+, we see the same thing, and we are now looking at a lot of deaths from these extremely aggressive cancers, so this isn't some underpowered stuff here. There is NO evidence that deadly cancers have increased due to vaccination.

None.

/2

If we take all ages 5+ and look for until May 2024, we see no increase in these highly aggressive cancer deaths, or any cancer deaths.

/3

Read 8 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Nov 7

The Presidential Election
Data Geekery with my interpretations

1) The Country Shifted, but More Didn't.

The final share will be ~ +1.3 to +1.5% for Trump, which is a shift of ~+5.8%.

If America was a room with 65 people in it, only 2 out of the 65 people switched shirts.

/1

Note: this math might seem like it doesn't work, but we have to remember to include those that voted 3rd party (1.5%ish) and those that didn't vote (about 35%).

Excluding non-voters who were eligible,
2020: 22/43 D & 20/43 R
2024: 20/42 D & 21/42 R

/2

In other words, the great majority of the country didn't switch, but we know there was definitely a nudge towards republican vote.

What does this mean?
The narratives about "America changing" should be very cautious, as 93% of America did not change.

/3

Read 11 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Sep 3

🚨COVID-19 Vaccination saves lives and improves outcomes 🚨

In this UK study of >3 MILLION PEOPLE who vaccinated, the incidence of mental health problems was significantly reduced when a subsequent COVID-19 infection occurred.

/1

Looking at the totals who were infected with COVID-19, it is clear that COVID-19 diagnosis was associated with a ROBUST increase in mental health problems after the diagnosis.

/2

This adds to the massive and still growing body of evidence that Covid 19 Vaccination was safe, effective, and extremely important especially considering that after this study, virtually everyone was infetcted with COVID-19.

/3

Read 5 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

Aug 29

Yet another study finding differential impacts (mostly with decrease of symptoms) on the mental health of youth comparing prepandemic to pandemic times.

The media far far far less likely to report on these now common findings.

/1

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

My colleagues and I talked about this at length, that there were many reasons to be cautious about the early "expert predictions" and in fact when good evidence was considered, many so-called evidence based scientists were wrong: dire outcomes on mental health harder to find.

/2

Our '23 peer-reviewed commentary here, g despite many professionals who attacked my us for daring to suggest we interpret evidence cautiously rather than childishly reducing issues & acting like sensationalists, I am certain our publciation holds up well.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Read 4 tweets

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