When I wrote my Vertical Integrator series, every one of the signs of new Techno-Economic Paradigm was there, except one:
Crisis or Recession
It looks like we'll get to check that one off now.
This is bad for incumbents, great for great startups.
Chaos is a ladder.
In ancient myths, the trickster brought chaos.
In the Ragnarök prophecy, “Fire will consume the heavens and the earth, and mortals and immortals alike will perish. The prophecy, however, does not end there. For the world is born again, refreshed, from this apocalypse.”
In 1990, Henderson and Clark wrote about Architectural Innovation. Incumbents get locked into an architecture, and seemingly little tweaks can be their downfall.
What happens when the architecture of the global economy changes?
“Everybody wants an abundant future, but nobody wants to dig no heavy-ass rocks.”
Mining is a $2 trillion industry. It's eons older than prostitution & may be the last industry standing post-AGI. But new discoveries are anemic and VC doesn't touch it.
Enter @earthaiexplore 🪨
Earth AI is a vertically-integrated predictive explorer and driller for critical metals.
In the past 6 months, it's made 3 discoveries: Molybdenum, Palladium, and Lead/Silver. The whole industry spent $12 billion to make ~45 last year.
We're going to need a lot more critical metals for the energy transition and the abundant future we talk about every week in Not Boring.
The fact is: fewer people need to work to keep everyone alive. 83% of Americans farmed in 1800. It's 1% now.
So we keep making up new, more abstract jobs.
At some point, we might not *need* to work to make a living. In that Planning for AGI post, @sama wrote that OpenAI's nonprofit could do things like “sponsor the world’s most comprehensive UBI experiment.”