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@eliothiggins.bsky.social Profile picture
@EliotHiggins
Feb 17, 2022 • 22 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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Reported location of today's nursery shelling in government controlled Eastern Ukraine. If this is the correct building the impact location would be here.
Images of the other side of the building show two windows then an entryway, and this is backed up by satellite imagery of both sides of the building.
More images of the location
Here's the current positions of the frontlines in relation to the nursery
The expected spin begins:
If there's multiple impacts from this shelling there's a chance there could be a crater that can be used to measure the direction of attack. We've done this previously with satellite imagery but it can be done on the ground.
Some important context to the reports of various shelling this morning
More confirmation of the location, an image from the nursery's Facebook page that matches the interior of the shelled location. h/t @zzradchenko facebook.com/16669773733531…
Video footage from inside the nursery following the attack
Various collected images and videos giving a broader sense of the area, and showing one additional impact crater.
facebook.com/otupivnich/pos…
I believe this is the crater location, give or take a few meters. If there were more images of the crater it could be possible to establish the direction of attack, so let me know if you spot any.
Thanks to @Taras_Syniuk who pointed out this image of the crater. It gives a clear view of the spray pattern, which is consistent with the incoming fire coming from the south. This would be in the direction of Russian backed separatist frontlines.
Thanks to @Timmi_Allen for putting this together, which measures the direction of the projectile base on the create shape. The blue arrow points to the direction of the gun.
This points towards Russian backed separatist frontline positions. The red line is 5km long, so easily within range of artillery. Also note the hole in the building is on the south side of the building.
This map gives a sense of the frontline position, it follows the river to the south
The first image in this set showing another artillery attack in Ukraine is at 48.741997, 38.376503. If anyone has more images of the crater it could be possible to establish the direction of this attack too.
Some of the visual clues to indicate it's the correct location, for fans of coloured boxes (the most useful OSINT tool)
Ukrainian SBU sharing images from the attacks, including these images of munition debris. Looks like a partial fuze in the first image, and the third image is pretty chunky.
I think Johnson might come to regret this phrasing. Pro-Russian sources initially reported this as a Ukrainian attack on a nursery in separatist territory. When they realised it was in government territory they claimed it was a government false flag. theguardian.com/world/live/202…
More analysis of the crater shape and direction of attack by @Timmi_Allen for the 2nd attack reported today on a Ukrainian school. This is based on a technique we developed for measuring the direction of artillery attacks in this report: bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
This is in the same direction as @JulianRoepcke pointed to in his geolocation of the same images, towards the closest frontline positions south-east of the impact site.
The Luhansk People's Republic responds to allegations they shelled the nursery by claiming the shell could have only hit the southeast facing building from the east, controlled by the Ukrainian military, ignoring the crater nearby that points south. t.me/millnr/7122

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More from @EliotHiggins

@eliothiggins.bsky.social Profile picture
Nov 4
It's been brought to my attention that there's videos published on social media claiming I've made various statements about the US election, related to election integrity. These are part of a Russian disinformation campaign, and the quotes are fabricated, but it's nice to know the Russians hold the value of my opinions in such high regard.
I've previously discussed other videos in this campaign in the below thread:
More details of the campaign can be found in this thread
Read 10 tweets
@eliothiggins.bsky.social Profile picture
Oct 22
🧵 1/7: The European Court of Human Rights has ruled in favor of Russian NGOs and media groups (including @Bellingcat), declaring Russia's "foreign agent" legislation a violation of fundamental human rights. The court found that the law imposes undue restrictions on freedom of expression & association.
2/7: The law requires NGOs & individuals receiving foreign funds to register as “foreign agents,” facing stigma, harsh reporting requirements, and severe penalties. This label implies foreign control—without proof—and misleads the public
3/7: The Court noted that the "foreign agent" label, linked to spies & traitors, damages the reputation of those designated and leads to a chilling effect on civil society and public discourse.
Read 9 tweets
@eliothiggins.bsky.social Profile picture
Oct 15
It's currently 9:11am, this post has 3 views, and no retweets or likes on an account with 75 followers. Let's see how long it takes for it to get several hundred retweets, and a few tens of thousands of views. Image
In the last 15 minutes, that tweet just gained 15.7k views, 187 likes, with no retweets. Two other tweets with similarly fake stores, posted around the same time, with similar profiles, have also suddenly gain a couple of hundred likes and around the same amount of views. This is, in real time, how a Russian disinformation campaign is using Twitter to promote its fake stories.Image
Image
Image
The thing is, nearly all of this engagement, apart from about 10 views and none of the likes, are entirely inauthentic. This doesn't help them reach genuine audiences, it's just boosting their stats so when they report back to their paymasters they can tell them how many views, likes and retweets they got, but they're all fake. It's effectively the people running these campaigns scamming their paymasters to make them think it's working, when it's not at all.
Read 4 tweets
@eliothiggins.bsky.social Profile picture
Sep 25
A new fake Bellingcat story, from a fake video claiming to be from Fox News. What's interesting about this one is I viewed the tweet 10 minutes ago, and it had 5 views, and suddenly it jumped to 12.5k, then 16.2k views in less than 5 minutes, with zero retweets or likes. Image
To me this suggests there's a bot network being used to boost views of tweets used in this disinformation campaign.
In 90 seconds this tweet just gained 154 retweets, another sign of bot activity. Image
Image
Read 22 tweets
@eliothiggins.bsky.social Profile picture
Sep 10
It's clear this is a coordinated attack from pro-Orban media which they really don't want being noticed outside of Hungary, but what they don't seem to realise is I'm now going to use what they did at every presentation I do on disinformation to audiences across the world.
What's notable is the accusations made against Bellingcat were all taken (uncredited) from an article publishing by MintPress claiming we've loads of intelligence agents working for us, which even the original MintPress article fails to prove.
Which to me just means I get to add a couple more slides to the presentation I'll be doing about this, to audiences made up of exactly the sort of people they didn't want to find out about this.
Read 5 tweets
@eliothiggins.bsky.social Profile picture
Sep 5
State actors see alternative media ecosystems as a vehicle for promoting their agendas, and take advantage of that by not just covertly funding them, but also giving them access to their officials and platforming them at places like the UN.
A recent example of that is Jackson Hinkle going to Eastern Ukraine, then getting invited to the UN by Russia to speak at a press conference, and that footage being used by state media as evidence of "experts" rejecting the "mainstream narratives" on Ukraine.
A lack of transparency around the funding of the individuals and websites that are part of these alternative media ecosystems allows for state actors to get away with their covert influence, a clear example of which we've seen over the last 24 hours.
Read 5 tweets

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