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Eliot Higgins Profile picture
@EliotHiggins
Feb 17, 2022 • 22 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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Reported location of today's nursery shelling in government controlled Eastern Ukraine. If this is the correct building the impact location would be here.
Images of the other side of the building show two windows then an entryway, and this is backed up by satellite imagery of both sides of the building.
More images of the location
Here's the current positions of the frontlines in relation to the nursery
The expected spin begins:
If there's multiple impacts from this shelling there's a chance there could be a crater that can be used to measure the direction of attack. We've done this previously with satellite imagery but it can be done on the ground.
Some important context to the reports of various shelling this morning
More confirmation of the location, an image from the nursery's Facebook page that matches the interior of the shelled location. h/t @zzradchenko facebook.com/16669773733531…
Video footage from inside the nursery following the attack
Various collected images and videos giving a broader sense of the area, and showing one additional impact crater.
facebook.com/otupivnich/pos…
I believe this is the crater location, give or take a few meters. If there were more images of the crater it could be possible to establish the direction of attack, so let me know if you spot any.
Thanks to @Taras_Syniuk who pointed out this image of the crater. It gives a clear view of the spray pattern, which is consistent with the incoming fire coming from the south. This would be in the direction of Russian backed separatist frontlines.
Thanks to @Timmi_Allen for putting this together, which measures the direction of the projectile base on the create shape. The blue arrow points to the direction of the gun.
This points towards Russian backed separatist frontline positions. The red line is 5km long, so easily within range of artillery. Also note the hole in the building is on the south side of the building.
This map gives a sense of the frontline position, it follows the river to the south
The first image in this set showing another artillery attack in Ukraine is at 48.741997, 38.376503. If anyone has more images of the crater it could be possible to establish the direction of this attack too.
Some of the visual clues to indicate it's the correct location, for fans of coloured boxes (the most useful OSINT tool)
Ukrainian SBU sharing images from the attacks, including these images of munition debris. Looks like a partial fuze in the first image, and the third image is pretty chunky.
I think Johnson might come to regret this phrasing. Pro-Russian sources initially reported this as a Ukrainian attack on a nursery in separatist territory. When they realised it was in government territory they claimed it was a government false flag. theguardian.com/world/live/202…
More analysis of the crater shape and direction of attack by @Timmi_Allen for the 2nd attack reported today on a Ukrainian school. This is based on a technique we developed for measuring the direction of artillery attacks in this report: bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
This is in the same direction as @JulianRoepcke pointed to in his geolocation of the same images, towards the closest frontline positions south-east of the impact site.
The Luhansk People's Republic responds to allegations they shelled the nursery by claiming the shell could have only hit the southeast facing building from the east, controlled by the Ukrainian military, ignoring the crater nearby that points south. t.me/millnr/7122

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More from @EliotHiggins

Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Apr 3
Several weeks ago the FvD's @PvanHouwelingen submitted questions to the Ministry of Justice based on reporting by @AndereKrant and @TheGrayzoneNews. Last week those answers were received, but neither Pepijn nor the two publications cited have reported on them. Let's find out why. Image
Just before Christmas the @AndereKrant and @TheGrayzoneNews published false claims that Bellingcat had submitted an article to the Dutch National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) ahead of publication to allegedly ‘attack journalists’. Image
@AndereKrant @TheGrayzoneNews These allegations appear to have been entirely based on claims made by @CeesCees72, apparently without any attempt to fact check the claim made in his tweet:
Read 11 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Mar 5
The new OECD report is one of the better examples of an intergovernmental report on dealing with disinformation, and actually gets it's not just about factchecking, but also creating a cycle that includes transparency and accountability. oecd.org/publications/f…
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I believe that the current issues we face with disinformation are symptoms of a broader social and cultural shift that has occurred over the last 15 years, and Bellingcat and open source investigation is also part of the same shift.
One fundamental issue is people, especially in Western democracies, feel increasingly detached from political process, and don't feel part of the democratic process. It creates a sense of total disempowerment, and that draws them to online communities.
Read 13 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Mar 1
Anyone who has followed George Galloway knows his head consists entirely of tankie brain worms, having taken a denialist position on a wide range of war crimes and atrocities in Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere, because he sees the victims as being on the side of "imperialists"
So look forward to some tired tankie bullshit being repeated in Parliament on the rare days he bothers to turn up.
There's noting maverick about taking the opposite side to whatever you imagine is in the interests of the west and then denying a bunch of war crimes to justify your position.. It's boring, tedious, and basic, Twitter is full of idiots like that.
Read 6 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Feb 17
I've seen two major disinformation themes around Navalny's death, one is misrepresenting already false claims, shown left, the other is repeating a story based on fabricated videos and documents alleging an affair. The second one we recently unpicked in the Bellingcat Discord.
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The allegations were based on a video featuring a woman claiming to have worked for Yulia Navalnaya, but there's no evidence she ever worked for Navalnaya, and the video was posted on a social media account that was instantly deleted, and never crawled by a search engine.
The only supporting evidence were confirmations, with partially obscured booking numbers. What they didn't account for is that we'd try every possible variation of the missing digits until we found the bookings online. Booking.com
Image
Read 8 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Jan 16
Graham Phillips lost his legal case against UK sanctions on him. The judge said "He has not shown any journalistic responsibility or ethics. His actions directly support Russia in its policies or actions that destabilise Ukraine." Post reaction gifs below:
independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/…
First may I say "lol", and follow that up with "lmao".
The full text of the decision can be found here. Absolutely no idea how they could have thought Graham was a pro-Russian propagandist

judiciary.uk/judgments/phil…
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Read 5 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Dec 16, 2023
I’ve written this piece for the FT about the challenges we face globally with disinformation and the urgent need of a systematic approach to address the root causes of the creation and spread of disinformation, and the positive opportunities that offers.
I believe that among many of the policymakers and practitioners who have attempted to address disinformation there’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the causes of disinformation, which has undermined our ability to deal with it effectively.
There’s a perception that disinformation is created by outside actors who influence communities, and society as a whole. A typical example of this is the reaction to the 2016 election of Donald Trump, where much of the attention was focused on Russia interference.
Read 46 tweets

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