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Eliot Higgins Profile picture
@EliotHiggins
Feb 17, 2022 • 22 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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Reported location of today's nursery shelling in government controlled Eastern Ukraine. If this is the correct building the impact location would be here.
Images of the other side of the building show two windows then an entryway, and this is backed up by satellite imagery of both sides of the building.
More images of the location
Here's the current positions of the frontlines in relation to the nursery
The expected spin begins:
If there's multiple impacts from this shelling there's a chance there could be a crater that can be used to measure the direction of attack. We've done this previously with satellite imagery but it can be done on the ground.
Some important context to the reports of various shelling this morning
More confirmation of the location, an image from the nursery's Facebook page that matches the interior of the shelled location. h/t @zzradchenko facebook.com/16669773733531…
Video footage from inside the nursery following the attack
Various collected images and videos giving a broader sense of the area, and showing one additional impact crater.
facebook.com/otupivnich/pos…
I believe this is the crater location, give or take a few meters. If there were more images of the crater it could be possible to establish the direction of attack, so let me know if you spot any.
Thanks to @Taras_Syniuk who pointed out this image of the crater. It gives a clear view of the spray pattern, which is consistent with the incoming fire coming from the south. This would be in the direction of Russian backed separatist frontlines.
Thanks to @Timmi_Allen for putting this together, which measures the direction of the projectile base on the create shape. The blue arrow points to the direction of the gun.
This points towards Russian backed separatist frontline positions. The red line is 5km long, so easily within range of artillery. Also note the hole in the building is on the south side of the building.
This map gives a sense of the frontline position, it follows the river to the south
The first image in this set showing another artillery attack in Ukraine is at 48.741997, 38.376503. If anyone has more images of the crater it could be possible to establish the direction of this attack too.
Some of the visual clues to indicate it's the correct location, for fans of coloured boxes (the most useful OSINT tool)
Ukrainian SBU sharing images from the attacks, including these images of munition debris. Looks like a partial fuze in the first image, and the third image is pretty chunky.
I think Johnson might come to regret this phrasing. Pro-Russian sources initially reported this as a Ukrainian attack on a nursery in separatist territory. When they realised it was in government territory they claimed it was a government false flag. theguardian.com/world/live/202…
More analysis of the crater shape and direction of attack by @Timmi_Allen for the 2nd attack reported today on a Ukrainian school. This is based on a technique we developed for measuring the direction of artillery attacks in this report: bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
This is in the same direction as @JulianRoepcke pointed to in his geolocation of the same images, towards the closest frontline positions south-east of the impact site.
The Luhansk People's Republic responds to allegations they shelled the nursery by claiming the shell could have only hit the southeast facing building from the east, controlled by the Ukrainian military, ignoring the crater nearby that points south. t.me/millnr/7122

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More from @EliotHiggins

Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Jul 9
For some reason, @elonmusk's X is now claiming the link to this article about Russia bombing a children's hospital is unsafe, because apparently it has "been identified by X or our partners as being potentially spammy or unsafe". Unsafe to who, Putin? 🤔
Image
Seeing @elonmusk already thinks Bellingcat is a "psy-op" you have to wonder if this is deliberate censorship from the so proclaimed free speech absolutist. Based on his recent behaviour I guess that only counts when you're a far right grifter posting CSAM.
Here's more evidence of Russia's involvement in the bombing of the children's hospital, but look at it before @elonmusk blocks that too
Read 5 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Jun 7
🧵 I think what's key to answering this question is recognising that how we encounter and consume information has changed dramatically over the last 15 years, and this has particularly impacted Gen Z and Gen Alpha
We’ve shifted from a top-down, gatekeeped model of information consumption (for example getting our news from newspapers and TV news), to a more peer-to-peer relationship with information thanks to social media.
That also changes how we interact with information, where we’re more active participants in that flow of information, in both how we respond to it, and how we share it. Importantly, we have to understand that for Gen Z and Gen Alpha this is their default state.
Read 16 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Jun 6
Reposting this to make the point clearer, this is a real image that is being dismissed as AI because of a crap AI detection website that doesn't actually work, because AI gives people a permission structure to deny reality. A video of the incident is here aljazeera.com/program/newsfe…

Image
It's not the first time I've seen someone do this with Israel and Gaza. Bad AI detection tools are used to deny reality, but ultimately people who don't want to believe something is true will just dismiss it as AI generated anyway.
It's no different from calling every video from Gaza Pallywood, or claiming the White Helmets fake videos in Syria. It's just propagandists creating a permission structure to deny reality.
Read 4 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Jun 2
🧵 I've been digging into this, and it's pretty clear that part of this campaign against Graham Phillips is driven by an article on a fake news website that appears to be run by John Mark Dougan himself.
I'm not sure where this all started, but the first time the spat appears to have gone public is this post by Graham Phillips about John Mark Dougan, stating "Dougan is accused of having 'gone rogue', and suspected of having taken money from western agencies." t.me/grahamwphillip…Image
The following day, John Mark Dougan posted this now deleted Telegram post, making various allegations and linking to an article on a site called "ukpoliticking", published on the same day. t.me/BadVolfNews/16…
Image
Read 14 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Apr 3
Several weeks ago the FvD's @PvanHouwelingen submitted questions to the Ministry of Justice based on reporting by @AndereKrant and @TheGrayzoneNews. Last week those answers were received, but neither Pepijn nor the two publications cited have reported on them. Let's find out why. Image
Just before Christmas the @AndereKrant and @TheGrayzoneNews published false claims that Bellingcat had submitted an article to the Dutch National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) ahead of publication to allegedly ‘attack journalists’. Image
@AndereKrant @TheGrayzoneNews These allegations appear to have been entirely based on claims made by @CeesCees72, apparently without any attempt to fact check the claim made in his tweet:
Read 11 tweets
Eliot Higgins Profile picture
Mar 5
The new OECD report is one of the better examples of an intergovernmental report on dealing with disinformation, and actually gets it's not just about factchecking, but also creating a cycle that includes transparency and accountability. oecd.org/publications/f…
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I believe that the current issues we face with disinformation are symptoms of a broader social and cultural shift that has occurred over the last 15 years, and Bellingcat and open source investigation is also part of the same shift.
One fundamental issue is people, especially in Western democracies, feel increasingly detached from political process, and don't feel part of the democratic process. It creates a sense of total disempowerment, and that draws them to online communities.
Read 13 tweets

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