Stilicho Profile picture
Feb 18, 2022 12 tweets 8 min read Read on X
A thread with a few vignettes of modern warfare from Armies of Sand by Kenneth M. Pollack:
Iraqi generalship was actually pretty good during the 1st Gulf War, and the Republican Guard, at least, was cohesive enough to fight to the death. Their main problem was that their soldiers and junior officers were incredibly incompetent.
The Iranian military was weakened by purges and the effects of the 1973 Revolution, but managed to use a combination of fanatical militia and their remaining mechanized troops to push back the Iraqi invasion. This was aided by poor Iraqi performance.
Cuba intervened extensively in African conflicts during the Cold War. They performed very well, establishing air superiority over the SADF and repeatedly outmaneuvering and defeating them.
The DPRK was very tactically skilled and aggressive during the Korean War, but suffered due to poor logistics and an inability to defend against American airpower.
Chadian forces refused tanks, artillery, and APCs that the west offered them to help defeat Libya, instead relying on swarms of aggressive and mobile technicals. They crushed the more well equipped Libyan army.
The Egyptian General Staff realized that their soldiers were incapable of using independent initiative, so they meticulously planned their 1973 offensive against Israel down to the squad level. This was successful, but broke down once they had to react to Israeli counterattacks.
Hezbollah light infantry fought like a conventional army and were one of, if not the toughest opponent faced by Israel. Many of the Hezbollah fighters in the early Syrian Civil War were veterans of the 2006 war with Israel, and they were far more effective than the SAA.
Hezbollah built cohesion in their units be deliberately recruiting groups of friends and relatives, and by relying heavily on a small group of elite fighters. However, losses and expanded needs in the Syrian Civil War forced them to lower their standards.
The PLA during the Korean War was mad up mostly of light infantry, but their tactics were far more sophisticated than "human waves." They relied on infiltration, flanking, and aggressive attacks into close quarters to defeat more well equipped UN troops.
The focus of this book is accounting for why Arab armies have been so consistently bad. Although one can debate its conclusions, it's the best exploration of how politics, culture, and economic development influence battlefield effectiveness I've read, and I highly recommend it.
*1979 🤦

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More from @StilichoReads

Oct 11
I feel like I haven't done a good book thread in a while. A thread with excerpts from The Sinews of Power: War, Money, and the English State, 1688-1783 by John Brewer: Image
The English state was remarkably centralized as far back as Anglo-Saxon times, with a national system of law and strong monarchy. Opposition was channeled through a single parliament, and therefore took on a national character as well. Image
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Contrast this with the far more decentralized France, where the great political conflict was between the monarchy and regional elites and where the estates-general was unable to become a unified political force. Image
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Dec 31, 2023
A thread with excerpts from Napoleon's Other War: Bandits, Rebels and their Pursuers in the Age of Revolutions by Michael Broers: Image
Banditry-cum-guerilla warfare was endemic to Corsica, where local notables waged blood feuds and maintained networks of armed men. As a young man, Napoleon and his family had far more exposure to this kind of war than to "conventional" fighting of artillery and big battalions.
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Napoleon and the various factions of revolutionary radicals had their differences, but they paled in comparison to the gulf between them and the peasant counter-revolutionaries, who they viewed as backwards hicks whipped into banditry by their priests.


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Oct 14, 2023
Machiavelli (in Discourses on Livy) on how difficult it is to change political institutions that have outlived their purpose. They can't be changed through normal politics (they *are* the normal politics) and someone willing to bypass them rarely has the public good in mind. Image
A major challenge to a state moving from authoritarianism to republican government -- all of the hacks who "were prevailing under the tyrannical state" feel obligated to it, while those who prosper under freedom simply believe they are getting what they deserve. Image
If the people of a republic turn to one man to defend them against the rich and powerful, "it will always happen that he will make himself tyrant of the city." He will eliminate the elite first and then turn on the people once there is no one else to stop him. Image
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Sep 17, 2023
Richard Pipes describes the Kievan Rus as initially resembling "the East India or Hudson's Bay companies, founded to make money but compelled by the absence of any administration in the area of their operations to assume quasi-governmental responsibilities."
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Mongol influence has etched itself into the Russian language. It is the origin of numerous Russian words relating to administration or brutality, from money (деньги) to shackles (кандалы).
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Russian had somewhat distinct terms for private and public lordship, and Muscovite Tsars adopted the former to describe their rule.
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Aug 13, 2023
The NDS, the former Afghan government's intelligence agency, was actually quite good at infiltrating the Taliban, running agents inside Pakistan, and compiling evidence that the Taliban was backed by the ISI as part of a deliberate plot to destabilize Afghanistan.

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The US dismissed this as an excuse to cover for the Afghan government's weakness and corruption. Image
"The American diplomat will be in your valley tomorrow if you want to kidnap them." Image
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Mar 12, 2023
Thread with excerpts from Phoenix and the Birds of Prey: Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism in Vietnam by Mark Moyar: Image
Local support for the Viet Cong was not motivated by nationalism or communism (which even many party members had a weak understanding of) but by village level grievances, especially support for land reform and lower rents and interest rates. ImageImageImage
The areas where support for the VC was weakest, on the other hand, where those populated by ethnic minorities or by well organized religious groups like Roman Catholics or the Hoa Hao and Cao Dai Buddhists. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets

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