Storm Eunice is likely the most devastating storm in decades. New forecast models predicted it 5 days ago. The same models predict more severe storms over Europe with global warming, with sting jets prominent. @EngineeringNCL @metoffice #StormEunice link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Fig 5 shows number of events exceeding wind speeds for hindcast (a), control (b), and future (c) simulations. Proportion of events belonging storm types in each bin indicated by the colour: light blue Shapiro-Keiser cyclones, dark blue: those with sting jets. 
Fig 6 Proportional contributions of sting-jet (SJ—dark blue), cold conveyor belt (CCB—light blue) and warm conveyer belt (WCB—red) to the pooled distributions of wind speeds from all sting-jet storms in the hindcast (a), control (b), and future (c) simulations.
Global climate models do not show these increases in high wind speeds. The number of storms exceeding a range of thresholds in a convection-permitting climate model (weather forecast resol.): native grid (solid), regridded to the 25 km (dotted) and GCM (dashed).
So what is the source of the high winds? Fig 8: % diff in no. grid cells exceeding wind speed thresholds between convection-permitting and GCM for non-sting jet (top row) and sting jet storm (bottom). Diff. shown for wind types SJ (navy), CCB (blue) and WCB (red) (ALL: black).
Note the huge increase in sting jet storms in the bottom right hand panel for the future high winds...
Our new paper proposes a framework for ‘consequence forecasting’ for impacts of storms like #Eunice, allowing first responders to effectively target resources prior to extreme weather and thus reduce the societal consequences. @EngineeringNCL @metoffice tinyurl.com/p8hd8tna
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