(Thread) Let's talk Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty pack odds. Standard disclaimer - the odds I'm posting here are my own observations and based on secondary market pack opening (both us and other vendors I've spoken to). These are not official @wizards_magic posted odds. #MTG
Hidetsugu, Devouring Chaos (NEON variants)
My estimate is that any Neon Variant of Hidetsugu appears 1:40 Collector boxes (1:480 Collector Packs). This would make the odds 1:480 packs for Blue, 1:960 packs for Green and 1:3,840 packs (1:320 boxes) for Red. (/2)
COLLECTOR PACK VARIANTS
Wizards alredy talked about this, but each R/M card has their normal odds of appearing, and the split is 1:1 for every specific variant in that slot. This applies to both the foil and non-foil slots.There are 59 Rares and 18 Mythics in #MTGNEO. (/3)
COLLECTOR PACK VARIANTS (Part 2)
The odds of any VERSION of a specific card appearing is 1:136 for Mythic and 1:68 for a Rare. Kodama of the West Tree has 2 variants. The chances of opening any version of Kodama is 1:136. The chances of opening a specific version is 1:272. (/4)
COLLECTOR PACK VARIANTS (Part 3)
Slot 15 of the Collector Booster (foil variants), Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant can be EA foil, Etched Foil, Showcase Foil or Phyrexian Foil.
The chance any Jin-Gitaxias is still 1:136.
The chance of one specific version is 1:544! (/5)
SET BOOSTER PACKS, COMMANDER EXCLUSIVES
The Commander cards exclusive to Set Boosters appear at roughly the same frequency as other #MTGNEO Rares/Mythics. If you expect to open 50 copies of Jin-Gitaxias, you would also expect to open 50 copies of Go-Shintai of Life's Origin (/6)
VARIANTS IN SET/DRAFT BOOSTERS
Variant versions of Rares and Mythics appear at a 7:1 ratio against normal versions in Set and Draft Booster packs. If you opened packs to get 100 copies of Ao, the Dawn Sky, you'd expect to have 14-15 copies of the Borderless version. (/7)
VARIANTS IN SET/DRAFT BOOSTERS (Part 2)
For previous sets, odds were generally 2:1 (66.6% Normal / 33.3% Variant). For #MTGNEO, the 7:1 odds makes it 85.7% Normal / 14.3% Variant. This means variant versions will be roughly 2x as rare, and will hold the value better. (/THREAD)
I'm adding this to the end too, just to make this 100% clear: - the odds I posted here are my own observations and based on secondary market pack opening (both us and other vendors I've spoken to). These are not official @wizards_magic posted odds. #MTG
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This is going to be a long post about today's Commander B&R announcement.
I've had quite a number of people reach out to get my thoughts, and I wanted to take the day to gather them before putting anything out into the world.
Social media isn't a medium designed to deal in nuance. Instead, it's made to intentionally amplify short, radical opinions in order to drive engagement.
I have no interest in using this platform and this topic to do anything other than to discuss the B&R announcement, and to do so in a constructive way.
#MTG #MTGCommander #MTGEDH
(/1)
The people who steward Magic are some of the most passionate people about the game. I know that it's en vogue to dunk on Wizards of the Coast for only caring about money. Very often what is missed is that the people behind the game care - a lot!
If you've ever engaged with any WOTC person in a public forum, it's clear that if you cut them, they'd bleed #MTG. Whether it's Gavin and everything he does at Magic Cons, or Mark Rosewater writing an endless inside-look (and self-criticisms) multiple times a week, or how much the community rallied around Diana in recent weeks - they care.
You may not agree with every decision that is made, but I truly believe the people making these decisions are doing so with what they feel is best for the health of the game in mind.
(/2)
There has been a lot of controversy over time regarding the banned and restricted announcements. The B&R lists for most formats are kept by Wizards, while the B&R list for Commander is stewarded by the Commander Rules Committee with advisement from the Commander Advisement Group.
Addressing the timing on B&R announcements has always been a very divisive issue. Currently Wizards of the Coast landed on set dates/periods for their B&R announcements, with a window for emergency Standard bannings if needed.
When Nadu became a dominant force in Modern, everyone knew a ban was coming. Many people took Wizards to task for not immediately banning Nadu out of the Pro Tour, or shortly after. During that time, I steadfastly defending the "wait for the date" approach. I felt that sticking the set dates was more important for future confidence in decisions even if it meant short term pain.
In the end, Wizards did ban Nadu, and also recognized that the timing was poor due to bifurcating the RCQ season. To amend this, they changed the windows to have the B&R announcements coincide with future RCQ seasons so changes would happen at the beginning of the season, and not during it.
I've seen a lot of doom and gloom lately about #MTGFinance, and I'm trying to reconcile it with the continued growth of the game in most other sectors.
The landscape has changed pretty rapidly, and we are in the biggest buyer's market I've seen in 20+ years.
#MTG (/thread)
Is it worse right now for vendors? Yes, by-and-large several factors (the main of which is reprint cadence) has removed the ability to hold inventory for long-term gains.
I think a lot of vendors get tunnel-vision though, and forget that this is fantastic for players! #MTG
If you are an average player just looking to play the game of Magic: The Gathering, this is the most affordable it's been (adjusting of course for inflation). Reprints have driven the prices of staples down, and reskins (variants) make the base versions of cards more afforadble.
Let's talk Innistrad: Double Feature. In particular, let's talk the finances of the foils in this set. They have a unique treatment, they are one per pack, but most importantly - they are all going bonkers in price right now. (Thread) #MTG
There are 24 foil cards in a box of Double Feature. On average, people are reporting opening 2 foil Rares and 1 foil Mythic per box. There are 128 Rares and 40 Mythics in the set. (/2)
In order to open one of every Foil Mythic rare, you'd basically represent 40 boxes of Double Feature being opened. There are 24 packs a box, and most places are selling at $10 a pack. Getting one of each Mythic Foil represents $9,600 worth of packs having been opened. (/3)
(Thread) In honor of #SCGCON Philadelphia and the giant multiple Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty prerelease events we're running this weekend, here are five fun facts about #MTG Prereleases!
1) The first official #MTG Prerelease ever was for Homelands! @wizards_magic rented out two floors of a New York Hotel, had a ton of decorations and special guests, and it paved the way for future Prerelease events.
2) Pro Tour Atlanta in 1995 was a Mirage Prerelease event! The players =went in blind as the event started, as the cards hadn't been spoiled prior. Imagine playing in a tournament where you didn't know any of the cards before you started playing!
(Thread) Here's my top 10 cards from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. These are the cards I think will hold value long term. This would normally be a premium article, but I'm not currently writing / don't have time to flesh this out @starcitygames. #MTG#MTGNEON.
This list includes cards from Neon Dynasty and Neon Dynasty Commander (New cards, no reprints). They release at the same time so I'm going to include them together. Some of these cards might drop from preorder pricing in the short term, but will be great long-term picks! (/2)
10) Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant. Solid Praetor, excellent reanimation target, playable in multiple formats. Phyrexian version will be worth the most, but the Soft Glow frame is going to be undervalued to start.
(Thread) Hasbro released their Q4 2021 financial results, and #MTG was the brightest spot in Hasbro's entire company! There are some some extremely interesting takeaways from the report. Let's discuss! (/1)
1) Tabletop gaming and digital gaming revenue accounted for 74% and 26% of total revenue for WOTC. No matter what doomsayers are putting out there, physical play is essential to the long-term health of #MTG. Hasbro recognizes this! (/2)
2) WoTC growth in 2022 is expected to be mid-single digits. 2021 was WoTC's best year ever, with $1.287 billion in revenue (up 42% year over year). Hasbro forecasting a much slower growth this year means that Hasbro feels they have found the equilibrium for product releases. (/3)