Thread by @1sat1c

U probably noticed some professional shillers have recently felt the need to take a vacation. Some b/c “this has started to take an emotional/health toll”, or “figured I already have enough”.
Others are “95% in stables since November anyway”.

This is good news for you, as it drastically reduces the level of noise and makes it easier to focus on signal.

Money is made when you buy, not when you sell. Bull moves are the time the work you put in the bear bears fruit.

In 2018, the same ppl also took a vacation. Guess who was left: Sergey Nazarov, Andre Cronje, Ethan Buchman, Vitalik. Builders.

Following the builders is a huge key to success in this space.
Not saying not to follow shillers, they r important too, so you can have exposure to what’s being shilled.

But by far, the ones creating value in this space are the builders. And it’s this type of time, when it’s quiet, boring, no fame and no fortunes are made, that you find the best deals.

A $ invested in 2018-19 in the likes of the builders above garnered much more value than the same $ put to work in 2021. It counted 4 more, captured a larger % of the network, and multiplied at a much higher rate later.

(Btw - this isn’t 2018. Totally different market and situation. Referencing 2018-19 as a time future development was taking place under the hood while the crowd lost interest, NOT as a comparison of market conditions)

And it’s these guys, keeping their heads down and building, that created the fortunes realised in 2020-2021.

You may be seduced by some stories of ppl who’ll try to sell you on the idea of selling high and buying back low later.
That’s a fool’s errand. Here’s why:

You can perhaps sell “high” (in relation to the past, not the future). But chances are you won’t buy back low. B/c once you’ve sold, its not only your cash that’s out. It’s your mind too.

To succeed in this space you have to immerse yourself in it. You have to be around, plugged in, notice and analyse what’s being built, by whom, and how, so you can successfully project relative probabilities of success into the future, and quantify them.

Being out means you’ll be pursuing something else. Which means you’ll probably miss out on what’s being built now, tomorrow, next year.

Make no mistake, there are multiple future 100x and a few 1000x being built now that you can get for 1x today and 0.5x sometime in the next 12 months.

And those x’s will come orders of magnitude faster than any X you can find anywhere else.

Gripto is the most penalising arena for slow reaction of any of the financial games, b/c it moves so fast.

There r a few 100x u can find in the stock market right now for example. But they’ll take an average of 14 years to play out. In gripto that average is 2.7 years. That’s the difference between 100x, and (100x)^5 for you.

There’s nothing else, not your job, not stocks, bonds, RE, Commodities, nothing that will give you this level of efficiency per unit of time spent.
Yes U have to spend a lot of time. But the rewards r worth it.

“Taking a vacation” is fine if your plan is to hodl your existing bags.

But there’s a new generation of builders, that will be responsible for the outsized returns of the next few years. @tztokchad is a prime example. Illia polosukhin, Dawn Song r others.

The next generation of gripto aristocracy will be formed among the backers of those builders, and some other like them, in the next couple of years.