If you don't understand how our monetary system works and the different tiers of money populating our financial system, you'll miss the very foundation of your global macro analysis.
A short and sweet primer on money from Cullen.
2/9
Joseph is a former Fed insider and knows the monetary plumbing in-and-out.
He explains the most relevant aspects in a very comprehensible way in this solid Central Banking book.
3/9
Moving from money to global macro now.
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics by Richard Koo is a masterpiece about the Japanese boom and bust cycle, and the subsequent fiscal and monetary actions undertaken in Japan.
You'll find out about ''balance sheet recessions''.
4/9
The Great Rupture by Viktor Shvets is another big picture macro masterpiece.
Viktor explores structural trends like technology and financialization, and how they are likely to interact with our economies over future decades.
5/9
Big Debt Crises by @RayDalio explores the interconnection between private and public sector debt, the short and long-term debt cycles and how those cycles develop and ultimately end.
Ray is a very good big picture macro thinker and an excellent communicator.
6/9
Moving to portfolio management now.
Inside The House of Money from Steve Drobny is an amazing series of interviews to the best hedge fund managers of the last decades. A unique opportunity to understand how these guys look at markets and manage risks!
7/9
The Man Who Solved the Market by Zuckerberg lifts the veil (or gives it a good try) on the secrets behind the huge success Jim Simons had with Renaissance and his Medallion Fund which delivered a 66% annualized return decade over decade (!).
A must read for all investors.
8/9
There are so many good books which didn't make into this thread because of...well, I needed to stop somewhere :)
What's your top 3 outside this list?
9/9
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Central Banks are slowly but surely diversifying away from the US Dollar into Gold.
This is one of the most interesting and potentially disruptive macro trends since the pandemic.
Thread
1/
Foreign Central Banks have been sending a clear message to US policymakers: we intend to diversify away from the US Dollar.
The chart above shows the % of total foreign exchange reserves held in USD (blue), EUR (white) and gold (orange).
2/
Before you get too excited: please remember the chart uses market values for Gold and other currencies.
The recent, massive appreciation in Gold skewes the % for Gold on the upside - but even after correcting for that, there has been a clear move away from USD into Gold
3/
A deep understanding of the mechanics behind fiscal and monetary operations will be an important skill to navigate markets.
Here is a quick guide to help you master the topic.
Thread.
The table below can be used as a Cheat Sheet to quickly assess what impact a certain monetary/fiscal mix can have on markets and the economy.
Let's go through 2 quick examples:
1️⃣ QE + Fiscal Deficits
- Fiscal deficits inject new money for the private sector; when the government cuts your taxes or sends you a cheque, all of a sudden you have more spendable money!
- The Fed creates new reserves (QE) and absorb bond issuance, leaving banks free of that burden and with more ''liquidity'' (reserves)