Alf Profile picture
Feb 20, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Global macro is a never-ending learning journey.

The 7 books which taught and inspired me the most in my global macro thinking process and portfolio management.

👇

1/9
Pragmatic Capitalism from @cullenroche.

If you don't understand how our monetary system works and the different tiers of money populating our financial system, you'll miss the very foundation of your global macro analysis.

A short and sweet primer on money from Cullen.

2/9
Central Banking 101 from @FedGuy12.

Joseph is a former Fed insider and knows the monetary plumbing in-and-out.

He explains the most relevant aspects in a very comprehensible way in this solid Central Banking book.

3/9
Moving from money to global macro now.

The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics by Richard Koo is a masterpiece about the Japanese boom and bust cycle, and the subsequent fiscal and monetary actions undertaken in Japan.

You'll find out about ''balance sheet recessions''.

4/9
The Great Rupture by Viktor Shvets is another big picture macro masterpiece.

Viktor explores structural trends like technology and financialization, and how they are likely to interact with our economies over future decades.

5/9
Big Debt Crises by @RayDalio explores the interconnection between private and public sector debt, the short and long-term debt cycles and how those cycles develop and ultimately end.

Ray is a very good big picture macro thinker and an excellent communicator.

6/9
Moving to portfolio management now.

Inside The House of Money from Steve Drobny is an amazing series of interviews to the best hedge fund managers of the last decades. A unique opportunity to understand how these guys look at markets and manage risks!

7/9
The Man Who Solved the Market by Zuckerberg lifts the veil (or gives it a good try) on the secrets behind the huge success Jim Simons had with Renaissance and his Medallion Fund which delivered a 66% annualized return decade over decade (!).

A must read for all investors.

8/9
There are so many good books which didn't make into this thread because of...well, I needed to stop somewhere :)

What's your top 3 outside this list?

9/9

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More from @MacroAlf

Apr 27
The odds of a Fed intervention to calm down the bond markets have increased substantially.

These policies would be akin to Yield Curve Control (YCC), something not seen in the US since the 1940s.

Thread.

1/
In April, the long-end of the bond market went ballistic for a few trading sessions.

30-year bond yields moved from 4.30% to 5.00% in 3 trading sessions.

Such a sell-off in only 3 trading sessions is very rare to witness:

2/ Image
On April 11th, Fed's Collins released an interview stating that the ''Fed is absolutely ready to intervene to stabilize markets''.

But why would the Fed get involved to stop a long-end sell-off if driven by government policies?

Well, because there was more than that...

3/
Read 11 tweets
Mar 19
Central Banks are slowly but surely diversifying away from the US Dollar into Gold.

This is one of the most interesting and potentially disruptive macro trends since the pandemic.

Thread

1/ Image
Foreign Central Banks have been sending a clear message to US policymakers: we intend to diversify away from the US Dollar.

The chart above shows the % of total foreign exchange reserves held in USD (blue), EUR (white) and gold (orange).

2/
Before you get too excited: please remember the chart uses market values for Gold and other currencies.

The recent, massive appreciation in Gold skewes the % for Gold on the upside - but even after correcting for that, there has been a clear move away from USD into Gold

3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 25
The market is signalling a big growth scare.

Should you be worried or fade it?

Thread

1/
First - how can we quantify the ''growth scare'' driver behind the current market dynamics?

A) Yields down
B) Equity sector rotation
C) Stock markets down despite yields down

Effectively, you can summarize this with the following...

2/
Markets are pushing yields down in a parallel fashion, expecting a slow Fed dovish reaction which won't be enough to restore growth.

So as yields fall, equity valuations don't get a boost but rather EPS expectations get revised down and people prefer defensive sectors.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 20
Fed officials are discussing ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) soon.

Let's discuss what this means for liquidity and markets.

Thread.

1/
First of all, some basics.

The Fed has been running QT for years now, in an attempt to reduce their balance sheet and drain reserves (''liquidity'') out of the system.

In short, here are the mechanics behind QT...

2/
Step 1: the Fed doesn’t reinvest maturing bonds and therefore destroys reserves - also known as ‘‘liquidity’’’

Step 2: the government needs to roll-over its funding, so banks now need to step up and absorb more of the newly issued securities

3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 14
A deep understanding of the mechanics behind fiscal and monetary operations will be an important skill to navigate markets.

Here is a quick guide to help you master the topic.

Thread.
The table below can be used as a Cheat Sheet to quickly assess what impact a certain monetary/fiscal mix can have on markets and the economy.

Let's go through 2 quick examples: Image
1️⃣ QE + Fiscal Deficits

- Fiscal deficits inject new money for the private sector; when the government cuts your taxes or sends you a cheque, all of a sudden you have more spendable money!

- The Fed creates new reserves (QE) and absorb bond issuance, leaving banks free of that burden and with more ''liquidity'' (reserves)Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 9
Global bond markets are adjusting to Trump policies, the new Fed stance, and diverging economic fundamentals.

Let's look into it in today's thread.

1/
Starting from the US, this is what markets are implying for Fed Funds over the next 2 years.

Fed Funds are seen around 4% by December (~1.4 cuts), and the terminal rate sits around 3.95% with no more cuts in 2026-2027.

2/ Image
2-year inflation swaps have started to price some risk premium around tariffs.

At 2.72%, they have reached new highs:

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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