Thread by @maxseddon

Ukraine’s foreign minister responds.

A reminder that the DNR and LNR only control about half of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but claim all of them. If Putin moves to recognize them, that’s tantamount to war.

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495755876422111234

Putin speaking to his security council now and rattling off the history of the Ukraine conflict from Moscow's perspective. None of them – and these are all Russia's most senior officials – are allowed within 20 yards of him.

Putin on remarks by Scholz and others that Ukraine isn't going to join Nato any time soon because it's not ready. "This isn't a concession. This is part of your plan!"

He says Macron said the US position had changed but couldn't explain how.

If anyone has any doubts, this ends with Russia recognizing the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. It's a matter of time.

Putin used to sit officials around a table and at least act like there was a discussion – now they just look like schoolkids reporting to the principal.

Dmitry Kozak, Putin's top official for the Minsk talks, say they have been going nowhere since they were agreed in 2015.

"Neither the west, nor Ukraine need Donbas," he says. "They want to put the brakes on the situation."

Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB, now talking about accused Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. He claims they have captured a Ukrainian soldier.

This is just utterly surreal

Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, now talking about more alleged Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk.

Neither he nor Kozak look particularly thrilled about this.

This obviously has implications for much more than the Donbas – Shoigu says Ukraine could get nuclear weapons and pose more of a threat than Iran or North Korea, due to their Soviet-era knowledge.

Putin asks if they should recognize DNR and LNR. Medvedev – remember that guy? – says it’s clear Ukraine doesn’t want them and won’t fulfill the Minsk agreements under any circumstances.

"These aren't just Russian speakers, these are citizens of the Russian Federation," Medvedev says. "If things continue this way, the only way out is to recognize the sovereignty of these territories."

He says the Russian people will support it.

Nikolai Patrushev, head of the security council and probably the most hawkish of Putin’s confidants, is speaking. “We need negotiations, but only with the US. Everyone else will do what they tell them.”

“They are hiding their true goal – to destroy the Russian Federation.”

Sergei Naryshkin, head of foreign intelligence, suggests using potential DNR/LNR recognition as a threat to make Ukraine fulfill the Minsk agreements.

Then it gets astonishing.
Putin: speak clearly, do you support recognition?
Naryshkin: I will
Putin: You will or you do?
Naryshkin: I support bringing them into Russia.
Putin: That’s not what we are discussing! Do you support recognizing independence?
Naryshkin, flustered: Yes

I just can’t believe I’m watching this. You half expected Putin to feed Naryshkin and Mishustin to the sharks when they tried avoiding saying they supported recognizing the DNR

A long line of officials – some enthusiastically, some looking terrified – urge Putin to recognize the DNR.

Putin says, "A decision will be taken today."

Then the TV cuts out. It's like the finale of the Sopranos.

What the hell did I just watch????

This picture is going to be on book covers for years to come. Just stunning

Shoigu wore a suit but Viktor Zolotov chose this setting to go full telnyashka

Putin is making an address to the nation this evening, the Kremlin says. Guess we won't have to wait long for his decision.

Putin just told Macron and Scholz he's going to sign a decree recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, per a Kremlin readout of their call.

"The President of Russia informed them that he intends to sign a relevant decree [on recognition] in the immediate future.

The President of France and Chancellor of Germany expressed disappointment with this development. They also expressed a willingness to continue contacts."

Here's Putin.

"Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us. It's an inseparable part of our shared history, our comrades and relatives."

He says the situation in the Donbas is "critical."

Long and boring history lesson. Right now we're on Stalin's nationalities policy in the early 1920s. For now, you can admire Putin's phone and Windows XP desktop

If you're wondering why Putin would use this address to go on for so long about the history of another country, the answer is simple – he doesn't think Ukraine is a real country, and has made that pretty clear

"We can't let these nationalist feelings be the foundation of a state," Putin says.

He's not even talking about modern Ukraine – we are still in the 1920s

Putin says Ukraine is a geopolitical fiction created by Stalin in the 1920s. "We're ready to show you what real decommunization is."

Putin says Russia was "robbed" by the collapse of the USSR.

Putin: "Why did the Bolsheviks need to generously encourage any nationalist ambitions on the imperial periphery? Handing over territories and the population of historical Russia... the nationalists didn't even dream of this"

Putin now on to modern day: "Ukraine has never had traditions of its own statehood... the Ukrainian state is built on denying everything that invites us, the historical memory of millions of people"

I've had a few people around the Kremlin say that Ukraine was downstream from Nato: just an irritant in Russia's relations with the west.

20 minutes in and Putin hasn't even mentioned Nato. This is just an enormous rant where he seems to really resent Ukraine for being a country

"Maidan did not bring democracy to Ukraine... after eight years the country is divided, Ukraine is living through a severe economic and social crisis. 15% of the population had to leave the country for work, usually for non-skilled labor"

I've had random Russians rant to me about Ukrainian history like this before, but they didn't control the world's largest nuclear arsenal

Putin recalls the 2014 Odessa fire in which dozens of pro-Russians died.

"The radicals who seized power in Ukraine organized terror and a series of murders went unpunished [...] we know the criminals by name and will do everything to punish them."

Imagine being Macron and sitting through this patiently for six hours while you politely urge Putin not to start a huge war

"Ukraine has been reduced to the level of a colony with a puppet regime," Putin says.

"The US and Nato have shamelessly turned Ukraine into a theater of potential military action against Russia," Putin says. "Ukraine's armed forces may well be commanded directly from Nato HQ."

Onto the failed attempt to make Ukraine and Georgia in 2008. "The Americans were just using them for their anti-Russian policy," Putin says.

"I've never said this before," Putin says, then reveals he asked Bill Clinton in Moscow in 2000 whether Russia could ever join Nato. Then he starts accusing the US of supporting terrorists in Chechnya and ignoring Russia's interests with Nato expansion and missile defense

"Okay, you don't want us to be your friend. But why make us an enemy? There's only one answer," Putin says. "They just don't want there to be this big, self-sufficient, strong country called Russia. That's where all of American behavior comes from."

Obviously I expected Putin to be aggressive and uncompromising, but this is downright scary. This is a war speech.

"Nato admitting Ukraine and putting its weaponry there is a settled question," he says. "They're looking at a sudden strike against Russia."

One reason why the sanctions deterrence hasn't worked: "the west is blackmailing Russia with sanctions, but they will always find an excuse for them and fake it," Putin says.

"Russia has done everything to ensure Ukraine retained its territorial integrity," Putin says, not mentioning that he is personally responsible for it losing about 20% of its territory

A minute later, Putin says he will recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics immediately and ask the Russian parliament to ratify it as soon as possible.

So there you have it.

TV then immediately cuts to Putin in the Kremlin signing decrees doing just that, with the separatist leaders in tow.

He's also signing agreements about "friendship and mutual aid" with both republics.

They cut to the signing ceremony so fast I didn't have time to tweet Putin's final message – that Ukraine was behind the violence in the Donbas and would be held responsible for "ensuing bloodshed."

This is only the beginning. The speech made it clear: war's on the table.

Putin has ordered Russian troops into Ukraine.

The decrees on recognizing the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics order the Russian armed forces to go into separatist territory on peacekeeping missions.

Russian troops have, of course, been involved in the conflict since 2014. But remember Russia says (with basically no evidence) that Ukraine has been attacking rebel and even Russian territory in recent days. If they now say Russian troops come under attack, then, well, you know

Russian newswires are publishing bits of the draft treaties with the DNR and LNR.

The gist of them is that Russian troops are going to guard the separatist borders, and the treaties are for 10 years.

I'd add that the reaction in Russia itself is even more muted. This is nothing like Crimea, which brought joyous crowds onto the streets – the Ukraine fixation is in Putin's head first and foremost.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/14958679149096

I've been wondering why Putin pretended to debate the logic of recognition when he had clearly already made up his mind

It now looks like some sort of loyalty test – force his top allies, many of whom seemed reluctant, to pledge themselves to the cause.

ft.com/content/95074e…