Thread by @Iyervval

THREAD
1 Putin’s speech is a masterclass on history & realism, please read it in its entirety. I’m posting the link so you can read HIS words, not the spin by assorted western hourly rental “analysts”
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…

2 first do these sounds like the words of an ethno-nationalist? He acknowledges the deep intermarriage & links between the two states. He states fact that these parts rejoined Russia starting 1654 variously from the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, Ottoman Empire & Golden Horde

3 Notice he says “history” - not “territory”. Again he states facts here - Modern Ukraine as we know it, was created ENTIRELY by the Romanovs & the USSR. Please ask any “analyst” to factually disprove who made these additions. The deep blue is Zaporozhian Hetmanate.

4 now we come to the most important part of the speech - the context - the idea of nationhood and appeasing nationalists at the expense of ethnic Russian populations. Why is this important?

5 I want you to overlay
1 the historical additions
2 the linguistic divisions of Ukraine as per the 2001 census by region
3 the linguistic divisions of the 2001 census by the municipality level. Notice the difference between 2 & 3? Why do you think that is?

6 Mostly this has to do with Russian populations concentrated in the heavily industrialised urban areas. Curiously Ukraine hasn’t held a census since 2001 (the only other country avoiding censuses is another ethnic hotspot - Lebanon) . But note the Russians are in a majority in

7 all areas ceded to “Ukraine” by Lenin and Khrushchev. Though we don’t have census data, we do have voting data. Now notice a stark pattern emerge on left & how sinisterly this pattern changes in the 2019 election on the right. This entirely reinforces Putin’s point.

8 now we’ve established 2 things - communist russia determined the borders of Ukraine and communist Russia’s determination of those borders also meant the Russian population both bears the brunt of but also determines elections. So notice this remarkably strong condemnation of

9 of communism here - how they would sell their own mothers, kill and betray anyone (my term not Putin’s) to stay in power.

10 this is where the next part of the speech gains context. He says “you want decommunisation? We’ll show you real decommunisation” - basically showing the hypocrisy of gaining 90% of your land through communism & then restricting decommunisation to just breaking Lenin’s statues.

11 he reinforces the point - that the cartographic divisions of the USSR were a pure figment of imagination given the heavy centralisation of Stalin. If you go by the cartographic fantasy the USSR was “super democratic”. If you go by reality it was a dystopian nightmare

12 he correctly points to a communist falsification of data (hint the entire basis of the wokery, disease is falsification - CRT as @ConceptualJames points out is just a revised communist manifesto substituting race for class). Now ask yourself honestly

13 does this sound like a “KGB officer” or indeed an “ethnonationalist” ? He’s equally critical of nationalism but much much more so of communism. He’s making a profound point here - that he’s not going to live in other peoples fantasies - rather he’s simply playing the cards

14 that history dealt him. That’s called a super-realist based guy, who understands both reality & limitations. This part here is very important. It shows how despite their exterior “scientific temper” communists will play every ethnic hatred there is - Yugoslavia, CRT, Bengal

15 Kerala, Xinjiang - etc etc etc. the list goes on and on. Now you understand why the Democrats & left academic elites are so obsessed with CRT & gender? It’s another identity card to be played in the face of failure and the desire to self-perpetuate.

16 again some cold hard facts - no western analyst has sought to disprove this - Ukraine was a consummate parasite. It took energy subsidies worth 250 billion in a 22 year period from Russia and exactly no share of the USSR’s debt much of which had gone into sustaining eastern

17 Ukraine’s heavy industry. Again I challenge anyone to disprove this. Notice the running theme here - Ukraine’s problems are because of its extreme kleptocracy. Continuing this pattern @ZelenskyyUa is dressing up personal corruption as Ukrainian “strategic concerns” - what

18 every hopelessly corrupt president before him has done. Note he like his equally rabid Russia hating predecessors has proven business ties with Russia. For indian readers, please note - this is exactly the game hopelessly corrupt Pakistan plays with China & the US.

19 obviously the usual cronyism set in. I don’t need to get into the rise of rancid extreme Ukrainian nationalism including the rehabilitation of Stepan Bandera. Here you can see him in SS uniforms and on Ukrainian stamps. Conferred Ukraines highest honour.

20 the role of NGOs here is well known enough. I’m going to give you a “fact check” by known propagandists politifact. I want you to see for yourself how they carefully avoid answering the question directly and instead engage in whataboutery politifact.com/factchecks/201…

21 this para refers to @ZelenskyyUa cultivated “honest” image & “reconciliation” & the “trust” referred to is the voting patterns of the 2019 election. Note since then he’s thrown journalists in jail & centralised power. Did a thread on this here

https://twitter.com/iyervval/status/1485216075256004609?s=21

22 to note nobody has been brought to account for the burning alive of people in Odessa and Ukraine’s economy is in total shambles and has been despite the total rupture from Russia in 2014. Only disaster zones like Syria, Afghanistan and Lebanon would have these statistics

23 he keeps re-emphasising how since 2014 when Ukraine severed the Russian umbilical cord, everything has collapsed including “democracy”. Note this thread I did previously on how Zelensky has negated his own Parliament, thrown journos in jail etc.

24 It is true that nominations for the judiciary have been outsourced internationally, subject to obvious external manipulation. As for the other offices, I have no knowledge and would defer to @ClintEhrlich, but the “corruption is flourishing like never before” is 100% accurate

25 the privatisation of the state - again 100%, worth noting Putin also runs the same system in Russia. In this next section the first two paras are are debatable, but the last 2 are fact. The state has been stoking the orthodox schism & zelensky has been sanctioning citizens

26 This para is with respect to Crimean Tatars. Hizb Ul Tahrir is banned in Germany and every Muslim country except Lebanon, UAE & Yemen. It is banned in Russia but not it Ukraine. So this too checks out.

27 Indians will know very well that this is the Pakistan model - divert from domestic issues and dire corruption, through foreign wars and invite intervention & internationalisation. The parallels with pakistan (oligarchy, support for terrorism, intent to escalate) are obvious

28 as for the nuclear weapons allegation, this is the first I’m hearing of it. Seems entirely concocted, given we haven’t heard of any IAEA or Russian Intel reports on this prior to today.