Chelsea are a pressing team but they're pinned back more easily than Liverpool and City are. Their settled pressing from goal kicks is good because the wingbacks push on & press high, but it's hard for them to do that in settled play unless it's a defensive overload on the side.
In settled midfield moments where the ball is central & the play is circulated to the fullback, it's often difficult for Chelsea's wingbacks to push that high up the pitch. If they do, the winger is free & the centre back has to come across, but that's a lot of distance to cover.
Lille have more of the ball away at Stamford Bridge & they're 11th in Ligue 1. It's not a good indication of control for a pressing team. On average, Chelsea have 4.2% less of the ball than Liverpool & nearly 10% less than City - they simply don't press as well as those two.
Then, when the game wanes on like it has now & Chelsea have been regularly pinned back, the wingbacks struggle even more to get out to the fullbacks when attempting to press the play. Chelsea's front 3 get passed around too easily in central areas - the fullback is free regularly
It's why City pin Chelsea back for the entirety of the game whereas Liverpool can actually keep the ball against them. Chelsea's settled press is passive and they lack number in the front line of pressing within settled midfield play. Liverpool don't - they have 6 as opposed to 5
Liverpool have also got that hellbent pressing mentality and offside trap they play to relentlessly keep on pressing. It is a very specific critique of Chelsea because their general settled press is good, but just not in this specific settled midfield play scenario.
I think this flaw is so damning to the point where Chelsea will never win the league under Tuchel unless he changes system or the league dampens in terms of quality. It's nowhere near as bad as a typical non-pressing team issue, but it's still a big one over a league season.
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Let's talk about Diego Simeone's Atleti versus Ralf Rangnick's Manchester United. Both of these teams are flawed, but one has to win.
Below, in this 25+ tweet thread, I discuss why United are favourites *IF* they are resilient mentally.
THREAD!
Atletico's switch to a 5-3-2 block has been the hallmark of Simeone's tactical evolution in the past couple of years. However, the block still resembles a 4-4-2 a lot of the time, and this is because of the way he wants to create defensive overloads to press within his mid-block.
Atletico Madrid are an aggressive team, but passive in style. They allow the opposition to build play out from the back through their central defenders and goalkeeper. This can see them get pushed back into their low 5-3-2 block with relative ease.
The only way Mikel Arteta doesn't win a Premier League or a Champions League at Arsenal Football Club is if something political goes wrong i.e. the board don't provide necessary funds in the future, Edu signs players unsuited to the system (Royal, Neto), etc.
Arsenal are blessed
People forget the trials and tribulations that Arteta has underwent at Arsenal Football Club. The media & fans wanted him out after the defeat at Everton over a year ago AND he had to commit a mass exodus of a toxic squad. His tactics are clear, but his resilience is unwavering.
The tactics have always been clearly amazing, so the only questions that were left since his early days at the club were his ability to deal with pressure, to lead a group, and his talent identification in the market for his system. ALL of the above have been mercilessly queried.
Positional play and "Juego de Posicion" is something that football fans fawn over, and rightly so, but the intricacies within the system that enable beautiful football centre around defensive principles. Xavi, Arteta, & Pep implement the 4-3-3 to an elite standard.
MEGA-THREAD.
Positional play is associated with the 4-3-3 because of the positions the players occupy on the pitch (both half spaces, wings and the centre with the #6, CF and two CB's).
Any coach can line their players up in that shape, but implementing it successfully is the tough part.
The 4-4-2 was a staple of the game for years because it naturally created compactness in midfield with 2 CM's and combinations out wide for target men in the box - not in the 4-3-3, though. The players become further apart centrally and close together on the two flanks.
The title run in is a close one. It's quite even despite City having the points advantage. Liverpool are far more likely to pull games back from behind, but City are more likely to control games and be involved in less chaotic games. However, Liverpool still largely control too.
Both Liverpool & City are favourites in each of their games apart from when they face each other. Liverpool have Spurs and Arsenal to play, so that's tough, particularly away at the Emirates if Arsenal are on form. They both also play United but I don't expect that to be an issue
I think that L. Díaz makes a big difference for Liverpool. A guy like that coming into the club lifts everyone - he is so intense, so fresh, so eager, so damn good. He's the type of player that lifts everyone's standards & keeps things fresh, like Fergie did with signings at Utd.
Imagine the goals a top centre forward would score in that Arsenal team - someone who's a physical threat in the box & a reliable ball-striker. Laca can't run across a defender in the box let alone win a duel. And that's without considering having a transitional threat at CF.
Everyone in the entire team's output will increase with a top striker at Arsenal - the likes of Saka can cut inside and use his top ball-striking to whip balls into the box and the forward will challenge for the ball! The inverted Tomiyasu has the quality to whip balls too.
Lacazette has technical quality, but he can't physically impose himself on games. His technical level is virtually useless because he can't prevent defenders from dragging him to the ground, thus he rarely combines. Even someone for Ø to combine with, Tierney to cross to, etc.
Partey is superb but he lacks the necessary calmness and maturity in possession reliably play as a single pivot when compared to a Fabinho or a Rodri. These guys virtually never give the ball away. Partey has all the quality but that type of pass is careless, and common from him.
Partey is one of the few midfielders in football who's good enough to play in a single pivot. He has the profile, the braveness, the technique, and the physicality. It's such a demanding role. However, it also requires mass patience. Most of his work is superb, but not all of it.
Partey typically has the temperament to circulate play efficiently & to play out of presses but on relatively regular occasions he carelessly gives the ball away. It's better to pump it long & counterpress than to play blind passes like the one above.