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Elder of Ziyon 🇮🇱

@elderofziyon

Jun 9

1/ Sam Harris asked a simple question: What would each side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict do if it had the power to do whatever it wanted? If Hamas had that power, it would carry out a genuine genocide, a project it has announced repeatedly and acted on when it could. (If the PA had it, they would put all the Jews on ships to Europe.) If Israel had it, there would be peace.

2/ He said this is the only important question, because both sides have different interpretations of the past and litigating that is a waste of time. And this is why he refuses to debate Israel-haters.

3/ @PeterBeinart responded, and as he normally does, he avoided the question and then did exactly what Harris said was a waste of time: relitigating the past.

My essay points out Beinart's deceptions and methods, with a healthy dose of facts that he does not want anyone to notice.

Read 5 tweets

Elder of Ziyon 🇮🇱

@elderofziyon

Jun 2

1/ Here is yet another case of @Amnesty literally making things up when it comes to Israel.

2/ It issued a press release on a report by the NGO @HelpAge about the (very real) problems older Gazans have in wartime.

But it claimed HelpAge said things it did not say.

@HelpAge 3/ While HelpAge's methodology was problematic, particularly how it selected who to interview, the report is honest about it. it includes appropriate caveats.

Amnesty throws all that out the window.

For example:

Read 7 tweets

Elder of Ziyon 🇮🇱

@elderofziyon

May 11

I haven't been writing much about the Iran situation because there are so few facts. No one knows what's going on, everyone is guessing, everyone is frustrated, analysts are filling the gaps with their own politics.

But I have my own guess as to whats' happening that fits the facts we do know.
1/

Trump is running hot and cold between being a warmonger and wanting a ceasefire. Netanyahu seems to be supporting Trump. The conventional wisdom is that time is on Iran's side, and every delay by Trump is a victory for the IRGC and the hardliners. What is really going on?
2/

Israel has incredibly good intelligence of what's going on in Iran. We must assume that this includes inside the supposedly impenetrable IRGC. If anyone knows the situation on the ground in Iran, it is Israel.

This is the key to understand what is happening.
3/

Read 8 tweets

Elder of Ziyon 🇮🇱

@elderofziyon

May 5

1/Every negative news story about how hard the Iran war is actually proves why it had to be fought — and why we nearly waited too long.

2/U.S. intelligence says the war hasn't changed Iran's nuclear timeline. Iran still has its highly enriched uranium stockpile, buried in tunnels American munitions can't penetrate.
Critics say: proof the war is failing.
The correct reading: proof of what a decade of delay costs.

3/Israel and the US still can't produce interceptors nearly as fast as Iran produces ballistic missiles. Iran fired ~650 ground-to-ground missiles in 40 days of fighting. The 4 week ceasefire wasn't close to enough to replenish stocks. That's a time bomb that only gets worse.

Read 8 tweets

Elder of Ziyon 🇮🇱

@elderofziyon

May 4

In April, based on the Lebanese Ministry of Health's numbers, I wrote that roughly 80% of Lebanese deaths in the current war were adult males — far above their approximately 37% share of the population.

That by itself is improbable if Israel is bombing and destroying indiscriminately, the way the media likes to imply.

But it turns out those incredible numbers are not even close to the reality.
1/

Their latest infographic shows that there have been 2,679 deaths, of which 2,459 are adult males - which is 91.8%.

Comparing the April 17 and May 3 numbers, we see the number of women killed and injured has gone down, not up, meaning that they ministry was classifying some people wrongly.

91.8% males is very impressive. But even that is an undercount!

2/

When we look at the small print in the infographic, we see that the Health Ministry, against all international standards, is counting 18 year olds as "children."

A back of the envelope calculation estimates that between 50-100 of the "children" killed were really 18 years old. So the percentage of adult males may be in the 93-95% range.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Elder of Ziyon 🇮🇱

@elderofziyon

May 1

The Manhattan Institute did a survey of Democrats (registered voters plus Kamala Harris voters.) It asked about antisemitism, and the answers show that Jew-hatred is becoming normalized in the Democratic Party.
1/

4% of Democrats describe themselves as openly antisemitic. Among voers 18-29, the percentage increases to 8% - one in twelve young Democrats aren't just "anti-Zionist" but literally hate Jews. (The correlation with antizionism is undeniable now.)
But that's not the worst part.
2/

When asked whether they think antisemites should be unwelcome in the party, less than half - 44% - said that hating Jews should disqualify someone from being a member.

Imagine if the same question was asked about racists.

3/

Read 7 tweets

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