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Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
@ClintEhrlich
Feb 24, 2022 โ€ข 146 tweets โ€ข 35 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ Putin announces "special military operation" against Ukraine.

Blames NATO expansion, neo-nazism.

Urges Urkainian forces to surrender.

Warns rest of world to stay out of conflict or face consequences.๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ
Missile strikes being reported.

Russian forces advancing from Crimea.

This is a blitzkrieg.
Explosions being reported throughout Ukraine, including in Kiev.

Some regions have gone silent.

This is not a limited intervention.
The timing of the invasion is significant.

It was launched both on Defender of the Fatherland Day AND during the U.N. Security Council Meeting.

Hard to understate the symbolism.
LARGE explosions being reported in Kiev.

Hearing this directly from people on the ground.
Russia is trying to seize Kiev from the air.

Cannot understate the ambition of this operation. Even I did not think it would happen THIS fast.

If Russia pulls this off, it could be the single most impressive combined-arms operations in modern history.

The size and swiftness against a large, well-equipped modern military is nothing short of terrifying.

Russia is asserting itself as a superpower.
I'm seeing a lot of people trying to make clever tweets right now.

It's not a time for jokes. Thousands of people are dying.

No matter which side you support, have some decency.
Russian television is reporting that Mariupol has been "liberated."

They are branding what is occurring throughout Ukraine a "de-Nazification operation."
Zelensky is still alive. He just released cell-phone video addressing the Ukrainian people.

He said he had spoken to Biden. He appeared to be in tears. Image
Clarification: Zelensky's eyes looked swollen to me, as if he had been crying.

He was not crying during the video itself.
Giant explosion at the Ukrainian President's office.

Attempted decapitation strike.

Unclear if Zelensky was present + whether he survived.
Ukrainian member of parliament, Ilia Kyva, is appearing on Russian TV as his country is invaded.

He claims Russia was forced to act in response to genocide, and says Putin is acting to preserve world peace. Image
CORRECTION: The photo I interpreted as showing a decapitation strike was shot *from* the President's Office. Not *of* it.

I was not the only one to make this mistake, but I apologize for it nevertheless.

News is moving fast. Hard to stay on top of everything.
Reports coming in that Belarusian and Russian forces are attacking Ukraine from the North.

This would be the fastest land route to reach Kiev.
To review: we have reports of Russian forces attacking from the border of the Russian mainland, from Crimea, from the LNR & DNR, from Belarus, from the air around Kiev, and via amphibious landing around Odesa.

This is an "all of the above" operation. Shock and awe.
Ukrainian military is denying the amphibious landing at Odessa.

Important to remember lots of these initial reports will be false.

What's undeniable is the scale and speed of the operation as a whole.
The Russian military emphasizes that it is carrying out precision strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure.

This point is being driven hard in Russian media.

Of course, in reality, airstrikes *always* endanger civilians. It's their nature.

Russian Ministry of Defense denies that any of its planes have been shot down.

Claims that this was Ukrainian propaganda.

Unclear what to believe.
Air raid sirens in Lvov.

Kharkiv military airport burning.

Russia's ministry of defense is claiming that Ukraine's air defenses have all been destroyed.

This map of reported missile strikes shows all Ukrainian military airports neutralized.

Impossible to understate what's unfolding. Unprecedented in history of warfare. Image
Before this conflict, there was a lot of discussion of the role that Turkish-provided TB2 Bayraktar drones would play for Ukraine.

Russian media is claiming these drones have all already been destroyed.
Russian media is emphasizing that what's happening in Ukraine is not a "purely military" operation.

It is a "special operation" that includes Russia's intelligence and law-enforcement services, including the FSB, MVD, and MChS.

The goal is to identify and neutralize saboteurs.
Striking video of Kalibr missile attack - Russian equivalent of the Tomahawk.

Kalibr missile in flight

Civilians fleeing Kiev.

You know what, I normally use Russian spellings, but I'll write "Kyiv" for this tweet.

Praying for their wellbeing.

I don't really have the stomach to keep watching Russian TV right now.

@VRSoloviev is taunting Zelensky.

"You should have thought of that earlier!" he says in response to the President's latest video from a secure bunker.
The mood on Russian TV is euphoric.

I do not recall American war coverage like this, even during the Iraq Invasion.

So much laughter. Such big smiles.

As someone who has tried hard to present the Russian perspective to Americans, I'm grossed out.
Russian TV is boasting that the attack on Ukraine was precisely coordinated with President Putin's speech.

The moment he said, "I have approved a special military operation," the strikes supposedly began.
First sighting I've seen of dismounted Russian soldiers.

More dismounted soldiers. Credit to @RWApodcast for the photo. Image
@RWApodcast I doubt there is much of a Ukrainian Navy left at the moment.

@RWApodcast Russian media reporting that Kharkiv has fallen.
@RWApodcast Reports that a Ukrainian Su-24 fighter fled the country to Romania, where it was forced to land by the Romanian air force.

This is from Russian media, so take it with a grain of salt.
@RWApodcast Update: The story about the Ukrainian fighter fleeing to Romania has been confirmed.

I can't judge the pilot for trying to save himself, but it makes for very effective Russian propaganda.
@RWApodcast Massive explosion from air strike on Ivano-Frankivsk.

You can hear the terror of the civilians making the recording. It must feel like the apocalypse.

@RWApodcast I understand the desire to provide weapons to Ukraine.

But if that was supposed to be U.S. strategy, it's pathetic to be offering them tomorrow.

It's not even clear you could get them into the country right now.

Largest explosion I've seen so far. May be an ammo depot, given the size of the blast.

Before this conflict, many people were speculating that Ukrainian troops would have a morale advantage, since they'd be defending their homeland.

As we're seeing, that overlooked the role that Russian shock and awe would play.

I'm not blaming the Ukrainians. Just being honest.
Russian military claims that Ukrainian troops are surrendering en masse.

It offers safe passage to all Ukrainian troops who lay down their arms.

Assures them they will not be attacked if they give up now.
China standing firmly behind Russia.

Major "New World Order" vibe.

Today is the day that any last shreds of American global hegemony died.

The West still can't agree on a comprehensive sanctions package.

It's telling that we led the Ukrainians into this situation, endangering them and their country, and now can't even be bothered to defend them economically.

I kept trying to warn people about the speed and devastation of conventional war against a peer military.

Now we have to watch videos like this, where the point is made all too well.

There are a lot of photos of dead Ukrainians emerging.

I've made an editorial decision not to share them (1) out of respect and (2) to not narrow the audience for this thread.

I hope people are smart enough to realize how many people are dead without seeing the corpses.
This is what's left of a Ukrainian air-defense site.

There are scenes like this all over the country.

Every installation like this is now in ruins.
I'm seeing lots of calls like this, for mass cyber attacks on the Russian Federation.

It's true โ€“ Putin wouldn't respond with nukes.

He would respond with his own cyber attacks, which would devastate Western economies and potentially kill civilians.

Location of this airstrike is unclear, but the video is worth watching to see the kinetic impact from a civilian's perspective.

Imagine this were happening in your city. It's why I wanted to stop this war so badly.
First evidence of the conflict reaching Russian territory: A home destroyed by Ukrainian artillery fire.

We are going to see lots of surreal scenes like this, of Russian soldiers mingling with civilian traffic.

It's reminiscent of Red Dawn (but set in the territory of the former Soviet Union, of course.)

Guys, I need to get some sleep. But I want to make a few points first.

First, I want to apologize if I didn't always strike a somber enough tone in the lead-up to this conflict.

It's fun to argue on Twitter, but sobering and sad to see the horrifying results of modern war.
Second, one lesson of this war is "if someone tells you who they are, believe them."

Putin openly expressed goals that could only be addressed by a full invasion of Ukraine.

I sounded the alarm, but most were skeptical right until the shooting started.
Third, I urge all of you to take a break from Twitter and read the full transcript of President Putin's speech tonight once it's available in English.

It is an address that will go down in history.

We will be studying it for decades.
This was NOT just a speech about Ukraine. It was addressed primarily towards the United States.

He called America an "empire of lies" and challenged the fundamental tenets of the American-led world order.

Thus, I believe today is even more historic than most realize.
Even more than the days that we withdrew from Afghanistan, this is the moment when unipolarity died.

The leader of a hostile global rival gave a speech defying America, declaring that we would be powerless to stop the war that he was initiating.

And he's right. We are.
He emphasized that Russia has an advantage in both nuclear arms and in the world's most advanced conventional (e.g. hypersonic) weapons.

He said that if we try to stop him, we will face consequences like never before.

He said Russia was ready for *anything.*
This is the clearest, most plausible threat of nuclear war that has been made in my lifetime.

And it wasn't about an abstract future conflict.

It was a threat to use nukes *today* against the West, in a war that is unfolding before our eyes.
For decades, a certain class of diplomats and scholars deluded themselves into believing that the era of war between great powers was permanently over.

Today was a rebuke to them. It was the end of fantasy, and the return of history.

History that may not be led by America.
It's a new day, and the Ukrainian military looks like it's putting up a better fight than last night.

There are plenty of claims in my live thread that turned out to be inaccurate.

That's the nature of early reports, especially from state media of belligerent nations.
I'm not going to try to go through and delete/correct everything.

I'd rather keep the thread up as an "as it happened" record of a night that shook the world.

As I add new information, please keep in mind it could be false too. This is a fast-moving war.
Many people are taking solace in Western claims that Russia failed to achieve its Day 1 objectives.

This might be true, but I need to push back against it slightly.

I think it's mostly a case of people clinging to any good news.
First, Russia has stated the exact opposite: it claims its Day 1 objectives were met in full.

I don't take the Russians at their word โ€“ but I also don't automatically believe the West.

It's in the strategic interest of *both* sides to claim initial victories. Stay skeptical.
Second, the concept of "objectives" is inherently slippery.

Good military planning involves contingencies.

People are getting the false impression that if things "aren't going according to plan" for the Russians, their invasion is failing.

That's naive.
Third. the Russian invasion was *far* more ambitious than anyone envisioned.

Nobody thought they were going to try to seize an airfield near Kiev and start air-lifting forces on Day 1.

Their failure to accomplish such a wild plan hardly spells victory for the Ukrainians.
Fourth, Russia has exercised (relative) restraint thus far.

Its strikes have appeared to be as surgical as practical, given the circumstances.

If the tide in the war starts to turn, Russia may become less discriminate with strategic bombing.

Things could get very ugly.
The reports we've seen in the last few hours are consistent with my assessment:

- Russian forces approaching central Kiev

- Ukrainian defenders taking desperate measures, including blowing bridges + asking civilians to fight with molotovs
Recall that the initial U.S. intelligence assessments were that Kiev could fall within 72 hours of a Russian invasion.

We haven't seen any clear departure from that time table yet.

Possible Russians get bogged down in heavy urban fighting and slow down. But hasn't happened yet.
Ukraine is now trying to enlist children to fight the Russians.

They've eliminated all age restrictions.

This isn't a rumor: it's an official statement from their defense ministry.

UPDATE: The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has clarified that they intended only to lift the maximum age restriction.

This was *not* specified in their original, official statement which ordered commanders to ignore *all* age restrictions.
Russian television is now featuring lots of footage of Ukrainian POWs. Image
More Ukrainian POW footage. Image
And more Ukrainian POW footage. (It seems like they had a news crew filming the "intake" of this particular group.) Image
Ukrainian POWs being tested for Covid.

The Russian nurse says "Open your mouth. You remember, like in your childhood." ImageImage
Ukrainian POWs being provided rations by the Russians.

The commander jokes, "It's our food. It's not poisoned."

The POWs do not appreciate his sense of humor. Image
I'm getting a lot of complaints that this thread contains Russian propaganda.

That's... kind of the point? I've been covering what Russia is telling its own people about the war.

I can't do the same thing for Ukraine since I don't speak Ukrainian. Others are doing that well!
Day 3 SITREP: The Ukrainians have put up a much tougher fight than I expected.

If Western-intel reports are believed, Russia has lost two IL-76 transports.

That alone could represent a loss of ~500 paratroopers, the worst RU mass-casualty incident since Second Chechen War.
It's unclear exactly how the transports were shot down.

Ukraine's fixed air defenses were largely suppressed by the initial Russian cruise-missile + air strikes.

So my guess is that these shoot-downs were accomplished with Stinger MANPADs.
The shortcoming of stingers and other MANPADs is the difficulty of IFF ("identification, friend or foe").

Two things may have helped the Ukrainians:

1. They have few if any planes in the sky, so risk of friendly fire=reduced

2. The U.S. is likely feeding them tracking data
Why do I think the U.S. is helping the Ukrainians track Russian planes?

It would be logical to assume no matter what.

But it's especially likely because Marco Rubio, the Vice Chair of the Senate Intel Committee, knew about the shootdown so quickly.

It's fun to root for "the good guys," especially when they are underdogs.

But I don't really take a lot of solace from what's happening.

These tactical victories obscure a strategic picture in which Russia still appears poised for victory.
Once again, remember that the initial Western intel projections were that Kiev could fall within 72 hours.

Well, it's Day 3, and the Russians are now launching a heavy assault on the city.

There are reports of massive explosions and gunfire near Maidan Square.
I don't think that the city is going to fall on the 72-hour timeline, but I'm not convinced the ultimate result is going to be much different than expected.

If anything, I'm concerned that Russia will resort to heavier weapons if its offensive stalls.
The worst-case scenario is Russia laying waste to huge swaths of Kiev, like we saw during the assault on Grozny in the Second Chechen War.

This is what people cheering on Russian casualties don't get.

A swift Russian victory could spare many, many Ukrainian civilians.
Some in the West are encouraged by the voices within Russia speaking out against the war.

A communist member of the Russian duma has condemned it โ€“ and so have many Russian celebrities, including the country's most popular TV host, Ivan Urgant. ImageImage
Unfortunately, I do not believe there is a plausible path to deescalation.

President Putin has framed this as an existential war for Russia โ€“ a sacred struggle against Nazism, which threatens the very existence of Russia as a state.

His own rhetoric makes victory mandatory.
In his public comments today, Putin referred to the leaders of Ukraine as "terrorists" and a "gang of drug users and neo-nazis."

He has previously suggested that so-called fascists would be held accountable for their crimes, likely by military tribunal.
Obviously, this leaves very little room for Russia to negotiate with Ukraine.

We've heard that talks are ongoing, but I believe that Russia will continue to demand complete "demilitarization."

That would be one step removed from unconditional surrender by Ukraine.
But somehow, may Western analysts are asserting that Ukraine will be the one "dictating the terms" in negotiations.

These people are confusing underperformance with near defeat.

Kiev is under siege. Ukraine is not dictating terms to anyone.
The behavior of the Ukrainian government makes that clear.

It is barring men ages 18-60 from leaving the country โ€“ conscripting them as they try to escape โ€“ and telling civilians to start attacking the Russian invaders with improvised weapons.

These are desperation moves.
It's important to note that, if Ukrainian civilians attempt to ambush Russian soldiers with e.g. molotovs, they will no longer be "civilians."

It's possible Russia may treat them as "unlawful combatants" / partisans and subject them to summary execution.
To be clear, I am not arguing that would be a fair or just outcome under the laws of war.

I am simply making a prediction about the potential conduct of Russian forces.

War is not a joke, and telling civilians to attack an invading force is tragic in the extreme.
If you'd like to see the best videos from the conflict, @RWApodcast and @ASBMilitary are doing a great job aggregating them.

This may be the single craziest clip I've seen to date. Civilian traffic in modern war = Terrifying.

Someone made a nice comparison of Russian gains in Ukraine vs. coalition gains in Iraq over the same time period.

The Russians have covered more territory, against a stronger adversary, on harder terrain.

They've likely also taken heavier casualties. But they are NOT stalled. Image
If anyone has the original source for the map, I would like to credit it.

Have seen it posted by multiple accounts.
Strikes like these hint at how ugly this war could get.

I'm very worried about the civilian casualties that could be sustained in the battle for Kiev.

Credit to @JulianRoepcke for the original map of Russia's gains, and @bazaarofwar for the comparison to coalition gains in Iraq.

I had already thought of the argument, but the visual representation is really invaluable.
BREAKING: United States says it would support Ukraine accepting Russia's demand that it become permanently neutral, if the Ukrainians decide it's best for their country.

This is... not consistent with claims Ukraine is "winning the war."

Winners do not contemplate surrender.
I'm pessimistic that Ukraine agreeing to be neutral would end the war at this point.

Hope I'm wrong.

But I don't think that alone would allow Putin to credibly claim that the "de-nazification and de-militarization" of Ukraine had been accomplished.
For the record, Ukraine agreeing to be neutral would, in fact, constitute surrender.

It wouldn't be *unconditional.*

But it would involve giving in to Russia's central demand and effectively relinquishing full sovereignty.
BREAKING: U.S. and E.U. to cut off "select" Russian banks from SWIFT.

This could either be a devastating sanction or meaningless, depending on which banks are targeted.

It's likely that banks involved in payments for Russian gas exports will be excluded, blunting the impact.
Russia says that it temporarily ceased combat operations while negotiating with Ukraine.

It says that the Ukrainians then broke off negotiations, at which point combat operations resumed.

Consistent with my theory that Russians are still demanding full demilitarization.
A soldier guarding former Ukrainian President Poroshenko accidentally released his magazine on live television.

Russian media has seized on this to mock the professionalism of the Ukrainian military.
UPDATE: Exclusion from SWIFT will apply only to Russian banks that have *already* been sanctioned.

Banks not hit by current sanctions will not be affected.

This confirms my prior speculation that Russian energy exports will be excluded, blunting the impact.
This footage of a Ukrainian Su-25 (the Soviet equivalent of the A-10 Warthog) targeting a Russian armored column is significant.

It shows Russia has *not* established total air superiority as expected.

Likely Russia will rush to deploy more assets ASAP.
For those claiming that was a Russian Su-25: Here is what was left of the armored column.

It looks like Ukraine still has air-to-ground capabilities, as hard as that is to believe.

Russian military will have many lessons to learn from this war.
Russia is now deploying heavier weapons than previously seen in the war.

They've been holding back with their conventional and rocket artillery capabilities. That's changing.

Key to understand Russia's ongoing ability to escalate conventionally.

BREAKING: There is now seemingly authentic video of Ukrainian forces committing war crimes against a Russian PoW.

They tear apart his uniform, beat him, and demand that he says "Glory to Ukraine!"

If the video is real, the reprisals from Russian forces could get very ugly.
I will *not* be posting the war-crimes video.

Those who want to find it will be able to track it down easily.

My editorial policy here is: no corpses, no war crimes. Out of decency to the victims.
Sounds of shooting, explosions near the center of Kiev.
Massive explosion after a Russian strike blows up a gas pipeline near Kharkov.

The civilian filming it blurts out a nonsense expression, akin to "holy banana!"
Potential retaliatory strike by Ukrainian forces on a gas depot in LNR territory

BREAKING: The leader of the DNR alleges that Ukrainian militants are forcing their way into residential buildings and using families as human shields. Image
For those following this thread, here is a post-mortem I've done on things I got wrong when I projected a swift Russian victory.

I believe they will still likely take Kiev in the next few days, but it hasn't happened as quickly as I anticipated.

Heavy fighting in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kiev.

It's about an hour's drive from here to the very center of the city.

(I'm not projecting that Russian armor will be there in an hour. Just giving some perspective...)

In the Chernihiv region, Ukrainian civilians and police block the path of a Russian tank.

Scenes like this all over Ukraine underscore the political constraints on the Russian military.

In Iraq, these people would have been run over and killed.
I am seeing more highly convincing footage of war crimes (torture) against Russian POWs.

So far, these videos have not been broadcast on Russian state television.

If they are, they could easily be used to justify "taking the gloves off." Scary to think about.
The aftermath of a Russian column being ambushed in Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine.

There are many reports of ongoing, heavy fighting there right now.
More footage of the fighting in Kharkov. (Kharkiv in Ukrainian.)

It appears that Russians took up positions around a school.
Earlier in this thread, I reported on claims from Western-intel that Ukraine had shot down multiple IL-76 transports.

I no longer believe that to be true, given the absence of any photos โ€“ which would have *massive* propaganda value for Ukraine.
If this report is accurate, and the Russian forces advancing from Kharkov and the Donbas are able to merge today, that would be a huge strategic victory for Russia.

Combined with Russian success pushing into Kiev, it might be the day momentum shifts.

Security camera footage of what appears to be Russian forces raiding a supermarket for supplies.

This provides some circumstantial support for rumors of logistics problems.

Or they may have just wanted better-tasting food than their rations....
If Russia doesn't want this to look like an "invasion," it should really tell its troops to stop replacing the Ukrainian flag with the Russian flag.

Crazy idea, I know.

This is the clearest footage yet of the heavy fighting in Kharkov. It looks like the beginning of an ambush.

If you speak Russian, forgive the profanity.
Footage of a Ukrainian TB-2 drone targeting a column of Russian vehicles.

This underscores the huge strategic failure of Russia to establish total air superiority.

Probably their single biggest blunder to date.
My last post tonight: a missile (probably Russian) embedded in a playground.

I'll let it speak for itself. I find it a pretty powerful image. Image
BREAKING: Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on "special combat duty mode."

Says it is because "[t]op officials of leading NATO nations indulge in making aggressive statements about our country."
Obviously, putting nuclear forces on high-alert is always a bad sign.

But it's particularly disturbing right now because it implies Russia may be planning to use heavier weapons (e.g. thermobaric systems sighted near Kiev) and wants to deter NATO from intervening when it does.
Ceasefire negotiations are also underway, at Ukraine's request, on the border with Belarus.

It's possible the Russian nuclear high alert may be connected with them.

A big reminder to Ukraine that Russia has the nuclear capabilities to make NATO intervention impossible.
I expect to see more of these ballistic missile strikes.

This one was allegedly conducted from the territory of Belarus.

The EU is banning RT and Sputnik.

We will likely see retaliatory bans inside Russia against Western media.

In my view, this is a highly counter-productive sanction.
Klitschko, the mayor of Kiev, says the city is now surrounded and it's impossible to evacuate civilians.

This is not consistent with what we've seen of Russian troop movements.

I believe it's messaging meant to emphasize the plight of the city's residents.
The International Judo Federation has stripped Putin, the world's most famous judo black belt, of his status as the organization's honorary president.

It's obviously just a symbolic gesture, but one of the few that might actually irk him, given his love of the sport.
It's interesting to wonder if the pace of the war just cost Putin his IJF presidency.

If Kiev had capitulated within 72 hours and the war were over, would Putin still have been stripped?

The longer Ukraine resists, the stronger the international condemnation becomes.
BREAKING: U.S. urges all American citizens to leave Russia while flights are still available.
Russian "Grad" rocket barrage against Ukrainian positions in Kakhovka, Southern Ukraine.
I was right: Kiev is *not* surrounded.

Klitschko is now claiming that was always Russian disinformation. (In reality, he told it to the AP, so I think he's just embarrassed about getting caught in a lie.)

@Iyervval made a really sharp point to me (give him a follow):

There's a massive Russian armored column that's traveled 180 km unmolested and is now ~27km north of Kiev.

The fact they've done this unmolested shows Ukrainian TB2 availability is highly limited.
This is SUCH a bad idea.

Russia will interpret NATO vets entering Ukraine as de facto NATO troops, just like the West interpreted Russian "vets" in Donbas.

It significantly increases the risk of miscalculation escalating the war beyond Ukraine.

Largest explosion of the war. No, it's not a nuke.

People keep asking what Putin's off-ramp is.

He doesn't have one: he's just going to win the war.

Russia is about to encircle a huge chunk of the UA military in the East, as its armor lays siege to Kiev.

Don't let pro-UA cheerleading obscure the actual strategic situation.
If this is true, the economic damage to Russia from loss of future foreign investment is incalculable.

It's very, very hard for me to believe that Putin foresaw consequences this severe when he initiated the Ukraine invasion.

A friend whose opinion on this conflict I deeply respect is predicting a surprise operation by Russia from Belarus to seal the Polish border with Ukraine.

Goal would be to prevent NATO arms shipments + flirt with Article 5 violation.

Not sure I agree, but something to watch.
The EU providing fighter jets to Ukraine is another *massive* escalation.

Russia will undoubtedly allege (correctly?) that the fighters are actually flown by European pilots.

If you wanted to suck Europe into the war, this is what you would do.

Luttwak originally claimed Russia would never invade Ukraine, because it would need 5x the men to conduct the operation.

Now he acts like Russia has lost the war because Zelensky has survived 4 days.

Those two views are not compatible.

The EU is claiming that its fighters will be over Ukraine within hours.

If true, this may imply they're being flown by EU pilots, not members of the Ukrainian air force.

Quite a task to exfiltrate Ukrainian pilots + have them fly back foreign planes.

For people complaining that the length of this thread was causing technical glitches: You've been heard!

I've created a new one, where I'll continue my coverage and analysis.

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
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Yesterday, Google shocked the world with its new AI, "Gemini."

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It's my opinion, as a lawyer and computer scientist, that (1) Google lied and (2) it broke the law. ๐Ÿงต Image
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None of them are real.
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2. It requires detailed prompting.

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You won't get any of this from the viral video, but it's spelled out in Google's documentation for developers. Image
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UPDATE: I've investigated further, and I've discovered serious problems with the alien mummies.

I believe the best available evidence points to an elaborate hoax.

Here's why I've become suspicious. 1/N ๐Ÿงต
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Sep 12, 2023
Let's honor the victims of 9/11 by telling the truth:

We were attacked by a terrorist organization that was WORKING FOR the U.S. government.

The proof is available online for anyone brave enough to read it. 1/N ๐Ÿงต Image
People want to believe that the DoD and CIA stopped supporting Bin Laden in the 1980s.

That simply isn't true.

Al Qaeda's #2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was working for the U.S. government *in 2001.* Image
It was part of an operation called Gladio B.

The original Operation Gladio recruited fascists to fight communism inside Europe.

Its successor, Gladio B, recruited Islamists to fight Russia in Central Asia. Image
Read 16 tweets
Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Aug 3, 2023
๐Ÿšจ BOOM: David Grusch may have seen proof of an extra-terrestrial mothership commanding a tic-tac UAP.

It sounds crazy, but it's spelled out in declassified documents.

Buckle up.๐Ÿงต1/N Image
In 2021, it appears Mr. Grusch was the Acting Chief of the Operations Center for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

He led a team of 30, and he was responsible for the President's Daily Brief.

Any intel at NRO went through Mr. Grusch.
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It's important to understand that NRO has the largest budget of any intelligence agency.

It has more resources than the NSA. More than the CIA.

It's the agency that creates and controls U.S. spy satellites and other top-secret sensor platforms. Image
Read 18 tweets
Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Aug 2, 2023
People think we can ignore evidence of UFOs, because the probability of aliens visiting Earth is low.

There's a giant hole in their reasoning!

I can prove it using probability theory, and I can show you how to explain the problem to others. 1/N ๐Ÿงต Image
Skeptics often tell you they are 99% sure aliens have not arrived on Earth.

In their mind, those are the same odds as reaching into a jar with 100 stones โ€“ 99 gray, 1 black โ€“ and randomly pulling out the only black stone.

But there's actually a HUGE difference! Image
We can believe that two things are both 1% probable, while being *more confident* in one of those estimates than the other.

In Bayesian probability theory, we call this the "strength" of the "prior."

("Prior" just means how confident we are "prior" to seeing new evidence.)
Read 11 tweets

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