Thread by @edwardfishman

Putin's unprovoked war against Ukraine is a crime against humanity. No sanctions can be proportional to the violence wrought upon Ukraine. The least the West can do is impose "swift and severe consequences" as @POTUS has promised.

A few thoughts on what this should look like:

(1) Step 1 should be a hammer blow against Russia's financial sector. What does that mean? Full-blocking sanctions against all major state-owned Russian banks. VEB, targeted on Tuesday, is the fifth-largest Russian financial institution. Sanctions on the others should follow.

(2) The reason the financial sector is target #1 is because oil markets are tight right now. Aggressive sanctions on Russia's oil sector could spike oil prices, perversely benefiting Russia. That said, this doesn't mean the oil sector should be off the table (more on this later).

(3) Even if the US imposed full-blocking sanctions on ALL major Russian banks, there would be ample room left for escalation. The US could impose similar sanctions against other Russian state-owned enterprises, including in insurance, transportation, mining, minerals, & metals.

(4) In 2014, the US & EU targeted Russia's energy sector on a forward-looking basis. This strategy could be expanded, blocking investment in and financing for all Russian oil & gas projects. The US could also announce plans to reduce Russia's oil exports in phases over time.

(5) There are still tougher options: blocking sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia and secondary sanctions against third parties that transact with listed Russian entities. This is the Iran sanctions program. It's comprehensive. We're nowhere close to that yet with Russia.

(6) In the best scenario, these should be multilateral sanctions. The EU, UK, Canada, Japan, and others should join. But the US should be prepared to act alone, if necessary. Major global banks and companies will comply with US regulations. The impact will still be substantial.

(7) These sanctions will be cold comfort for Ukrainians under attack. They won't halt Putin's warpath. But they will exact a cost. They will be felt. And all of Russia will understand that Putin's imperial delusions come with a steep price. /end