max seddon Profile picture
Feb 24 16 tweets 14 min read
Vladimir Putin has launched a massive invasion of Ukraine.

The FT will be tracking every development with me and @NastassiaAstra in Moscow, @polinaivanovva and @JohnReedwrites in Kyiv, @HenryJFoy in Brussels, @VJMallet in Paris, and @GuyChazan in Berlin.

ft.com/content/5b4235…
@NastassiaAstra @polinaivanovva @JohnReedwrites @HenryJFoy @VJMallet @GuyChazan A tale of two speeches: how Putin's bloodcurdling declaration of war and Zelensky's heartfelt appeal for peace showed, as the latter said, that "Ukraine on your TV news and the real Ukraine are two totally different countries."

ft.com/content/0783ea…
“The Putin whom Macron met at the Kremlin was not the same as the one he saw the previous time they had met in December 2019. This Putin was more rigid, more isolated, and basically one who had gone haywire in terms of ideology and security policy.”

ft.com/content/878727…
This map from @ftgraphics shows how far-ranging Putin's invasion of Ukraine is.

Attacks everywhere from Ivano-Frankivsk in the west to Kharkiv on the Russian border. Incursions all across the north, including Belarus, and from Crimea. New troop presences detected.
Russian markets today:

– Ruble at record lows
– Moex index down 45 per cent
– Gazprom down 48 per cent, Lukoil and Novatek both down more than 40 per cent
– Bond prices collapse

ft.com/content/b9b860…
A report from @polinaivanovva and @JohnReedwrites on the ground in Kyiv.

“This is our land, this is Ukraine. It is a disgrace; that man should be destroyed for what he is doing . . . he should be crushed,” Irina said, referring to Vladimir Putin.

ft.com/content/c617a1…
@polinaivanovva @JohnReedwrites After Russia invaded today, the FT is making our key Ukraine coverage free to read, as we did with the Covid-19 pandemic.

Follow this page for all the latest

ft.com/content/77ab8d…
@polinaivanovva @JohnReedwrites Russia's state banks are going to get hit with some big, big sanctions very soon.

@OwenWalker0 and I explore what that could mean, with comments from @elinaribakova and @maria_shagina

ft.com/content/c43bd0…
@polinaivanovva @JohnReedwrites @OwenWalker0 @elinaribakova @maria_shagina "Western security services believe that Putin intends to overthrow the government and install a puppet regime. This “decapitation” strategy will also take in local governments. Lists have been drawn up of Ukrainian officials to be arrested or killed."

ft.com/content/b8b02d…
Former Italian PM Matteo Renzi and Finnish PM Esko Aho have resigned from Russian corporate boards. Will former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French ex-PM François Fillon be next?

Scoop by @silvia_sb_ and @NastassiaAstra

ft.com/content/f6b5a4…
@polinaivanovva @JohnReedwrites @OwenWalker0 @elinaribakova @maria_shagina Latest from FT's @Philgeorgiadis: the EU Aviation Safety Agency has issued a warning about airspace controlled by Moscow and Rostov air traffic control "due to heightened military activity, which may include launches of mid-range missiles penetrating into controlled airspace."
@silvia_sb_ @NastassiaAstra "Putin’s transformation into a messiah-like figure has been illuminated. He is nurturing a new Leviathan set in revanchist conservatism. Armed with a belief in his historical destiny, Putin is acting more strongly and boldly," writes @Stanovaya

ft.com/content/09c93f…
@silvia_sb_ @NastassiaAstra @Stanovaya "Public discontent and anger will gradually accumulate. By dismantling mechanisms for society to blow off steam, Putin is planting a bomb under the state. Inevitably, it will explode, causing massive destruction when the regime begins to fall apart."

ft.com/content/09c93f…
New UK sanctions on Russia just dropped, @GeorgeWParker @Laura_K_Hughes and @PickardJE report

VTB's assets are frozen, Aeroflot can't fly to London, high-tech exports will be curbed. But only five "oligarchs" listed – that'll disappoint campaigners.

ft.com/content/776ab0…
The EU banking sanctions now hit Russia's biggest private bank, Alfa-Bank, and Otkritie, the bank Russia's regulators had hoped to sell off to private investors in an IPO around this time.

ft.com/content/6a1e12…
Putin's war in Ukraine is in its second day. Fierce battles are raging across the country as Russian forces prepare for an assault on Kyiv.

Ukraine says it has killed 800 Russian soldiers and suffered 137 casualties. Russia hasn't cited any yet.

ft.com/content/601707…

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More from @maxseddon

Feb 25
Putin claims Russia is mostly fighting "nationalists" and calls on Ukraine's armed forces to surrender.

"Take power into your own hands. It looks like it'll be easier for us to make a deal with you than this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis." Image
The whole root of the Ukraine crisis, according to Putin, is that the 2014 Euromaidan revolution was a foreign-backed armed coup against a democratically elected president. Here he is calling for a foreign-backed armed coup in Ukraine in this very video
The way Putin pronounces “banderovtsy” (followers of Ukrainian nationalist icon Stephan Bandera) makes it sound like he is taking about Ostap Bender (wily anti-hero of classic Soviet satire The Twelve Chairs)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
US sanctions on dollar transactions for Sberbank, Russia's largest bank by a long way, are a big deal and will be painful in the short term for the Russian financial system.

But those sanctions aren't as tough as those on VTB, which cut it out of the financial system entirely.
A few quick notes on these banks.

Sberbank was a staid Soviet-style institution before it got a new lease on life under Herman Gref, Putin's most liberal confidant. He styled it after Silicon Valley and tried to make it an example for Russian reform.

ft.com/content/3450c8…
By all accounts, Gref did a great job modernizing Sberbank – it was one of Europe's most profitable companies.

But as it became clear in recent years Putin had no interest in reform, however, its tech ambitions began to founder as well.

ft.com/content/4b5248…
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
Some Russians are protesting Putin's attack on Ukraine despite a total ban on protesting and immediate heavy crackdowns from riot police. Here's a gathering of about 200 in St Petersburg
A few hundred people in Moscow, where there are also reports of many arrests.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 24
It’s too early to say what the Russian people make of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but he’s already lost a few celebrities. Most of these guys rely heavily on the state for their living.

A short thread.
Ivan Urgant, Russia’s equivalent of Steven Colbert (who was once on his show): “Fear and pain. NO to war.” Image
Maxim Galkin, singer and husband of Alla Pugacheva, Russia’s biggest celebrity:

“I’ve been talking to friends and relatives from Ukraine since early morning! I can’t find the words to say what I feel! How can this be possible! There can be no justification for war! No to war!” Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
Putin has summoned the oligarchs for a meeting in the Kremlin later today, the Kremlin says.
Behold Russia's business elite, in the Kremlin's Hall of the Order of St Catherine, where the astonishing security council session with Putin was on Monday.

Alexander Shokhin, who heads the oligarch lobby group, is talking about cryptocurrency regulation as Ukraine burns. Image
Herman Gref of Sberbank – one of the few heads of major state companies and longtime Putin confidantes not on US sanctions yet – has worn a blueberry suit for the occasion. He does not look thrilled to be there. Image
Read 19 tweets
Feb 24
New Zelensky statement:

“Ukrainians will never give up their freedom and independence to anyone. Only we have been determining our future since 1991. But now the fate of not only our state is being decided, but also what life in Europe will be like.” president.gov.ua/en/news/rosiya…
"The Russian state is on the side of evil, but much depends on the Russian people," Zelensky says.

“Russians will choose personally which path each of them will take. For all who have not yet lost their conscience, it is time to go the streets and protest against this war."
Zelensky: "Ukraine will not surrender its freedom, whatever Moscow thinks. For Ukrainians independence and the right to live free on our land is the highest value. Russia like a suicidal scoundrel attacked our country this morning, just as Fascist Germany did in World War II."
Read 6 tweets

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