The prevailing belief from experts the last few weeks is that Putin wouldn't try something like this. Not a criticism of expertise but it's a reminder that rational people analyzing things do not take into account enough the possibility that some autocrats are crazy.
I see the same approach to analyzing Xi Jinping. There is an assumption he is rational, this is why he wouldn't do X or Y. But what if hubris, being surrounded by yes men, and power make men nuts? Not enough credence is given to this possibility in foreign policy.
Erdoğan is another example. He's chosen to ignore all his economists and run economic policy in his country (strong "I alone can fix it" energy here), leading to a collapse of the lira and debilitating inflation in Turkey. This was not rational, and yet he did it anyway.
History is literally littered with examples of leaders who start acting totally nuts because of their power. Yet modern-day policymakers mostly ignore this fact, when there've been so many data points, and focus mainly on what rational people would do.
Tyrants! They're not like us! Only a handful of people around the world ever experience that level of power and the mental impact. This is why crazy, worst-case scenarios need to be taken seriously, rather than always shoved to the fringe of the genteel policy world.
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