Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine will have many consequences - for Ukrainians foremost, but elsewhere as well. A few thoughts on the implications:
One casualty may be Washington’s foreign policy plans. The administration wishes to focus on China as the key long-term challenge and Asia as the key region. By ending ME wars, stabilizing ties w/ Russia & strengthening alliances, Washington would be free to compete with Beijing.
A violent, aggressive Russia, active in a Europe that responds only with decisive American leadership, puts serious stress on the administration’s approach. Indeed, some of the very responses to Russian aggression will have costs elsewhere.
Reinforcing NATO’s east could use military resources not available for the Indo-Pacific. Sanctions on Russia will render it more dependent on China. These are necessary steps in the face of Russian brutality, but they will have effects elsewhere.
Washington may stop regional pivoting and instead start global balancing. In their recent manifesto, Beijing and Moscow evince a desire to assume newly ascendant places in an American-dominated international order. Preserving that order requires dealing with both simultaneously.
Can't do it alone, and flickers of global balancing are evident. Japan, ROK, & Singapore are sanctioning Russia, and key Euro countries are active in the Indo-Pacific. Responding to Russia will require more than Euro action alone; dealing with China more than Asian participation.
Predictions of the postwar order’s demise are exceedingly premature. Out of this tragedy may rise NATO more unified and better resourced, the U.S. more implanted in Europe, Russia facing high and indefinite costs, and a lesson to would-be aggressors.
But it will require a growing array of countries, across regions, to work in common on both Russia and China. And it shows, once again, that terrible events can spoil even the best laid plans. END
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