The Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 26, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I still don't think anyone appreciates the significance of Russian operations at Hostomel airport.

It's ~75 km from the river crossing at Chernobyl to the airport. Compare that to the doctrinal template of Soviet deep operations, which calls for airborne operations 80 km deep... ImageImage
One purpose of airborne troops in the operational depth is to exploit any fleeting opportunities. But the main reason is to disrupt the rear of forward echelons and render their position untenable.
The breakthrough around Chernobyl was crucial, the Russians' only available mobility corridor on the right bank of the Dnieper. The crossing at Chernobyl is one of the few through the Pripyat Marshes, an otherwise impassable obstacle. Image
Attacks in the operational depth—or even the threat of them—can cause forward positions to collapse.

It's not at all clear what forces the Ukrainians had at Chernobyl, but it's very likely that this, rather than a madcap dash for Kiev, was the Russians' real motive.
If reports of heavy Ukrainian vehicle losses near Hostomel are true (impossible to confirm right now), then the landing accomplished this and more by forcing a counterattack in the open, either from Kiev or from elsewhere.

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More from @bazaarofwar

Sep 15
It’s time for the myth of Inchon to die. The landings, which occurred 74 years ago today, are credited with turning the tide of the Korean War. In truth, they distracted from the real fighting at the cost of thousands of lives, and lay the groundwork for future disaster.
🧵 Image
On 25 June 1950, ten infantry divisions and an armored division of the Korean People’s Army crossed the 38th Parallel. They quickly overwhelmed the unprepared South Koreans and drove south. The US 21st Division, sent over from Japan, was overrun in the first weeks of July. Image
Already by 4 July, before US troops had their first taste of combat, C-in-C of the Far East Douglas MacArthur set his eye on an amphibious landing at Inchon, behind NKA lines. Originally set for 22 July, it was canceled in the face of US and South Korean defeats.
Read 48 tweets
Jun 2
Since there has been so much recent focus on slowly-moving fronts characterized by attrition and positional fighting, my latest Dispatch is on the opposite: a fixed line that encouraged mobility and practically demanded decisive battle.

The Rappahannock Line in the US Civil War.
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The Rappahannock runs 300 km through northern Virginia, flowing past Fredericksburg midway between Washington and Richmond. Although not especially wide, it has a few features that made it a natural military frontier between North and South.
Image
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Most of the Eastern Theater fighting from 1861-63 took place well to the north of the Rappahannock—from northern Virginia all the way to Gettysburg—and occasionally to its south. But the front always defaulted to the river itself. Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 27
Venice is a great case-study for the practice of grand strategy. A tight-knit oligarchy ruled a commercial empire for nearly six centuries, able to chart a course years and decades in advance.🧵
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If grand strategy is the use of a country’s resources to protect & further its interests, who defines its interests? Even *formulating* grand strategy involves political wrangling—much easier in a small state where everyone’s livelihood depends on the sea.
dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/grand-strate…
Then there’s the problem of *executing* grand strategy: tough when many sectors of national power are in private hands, but easier in an oligarchy of noble houses which are the major economic actors. Image
Read 15 tweets
Apr 20
Among the most promising military applications of AI is staff work. Tons of routine products—intel summaries, orders, etc.—can be generated much faster by machine. Does this mean staffs will reverse the historic trend and begin to shrink?

No: they’re about to explode in size.🧵 Image
In the Napoleonic era, a divisional or corps staff was never more than a dozen soldiers, whereas today it’s pushing toward a thousand for formations of about the same size. Part of a general trend in tooth-to-tail ratios. Image
The reasons are fairly obvious: modern armies are more complicated, requiring more logistical coordination, fire control, etc.

BUT. There’s a subtler effect at play too: Jevon’s paradox. Simply stated, the more efficiently a resource can be used, the greater the demand.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 15
Africa saw a lot of fighting in both World Wars, but nowhere near the scale or importance of the main theaters.

Secondary theaters are usually a drain on the weaker side, so it’s interesting to compare Germany’s performance in both. 🧵
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The North Africa campaign of WWII is the much more famous of these. It saw the exploits of three of the most famous commanders of the war—Rommel, Montgomery, and Patton—as well as some of the most dramatic back-and-forths. But what were Axis objectives there?

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For Italy, it was a primary theater, one in which to establish a Mediterranean empire.

Things were more complicated for Germany. This was never fully settled, but included:
1. Keep Italy in the war
2. Deny it as a springboard for invasion of Europe
3. Take Egypt, the Middle East Image
Read 16 tweets
Mar 22
The Crusades are fascinating in the way they pitted two very different military systems against each other: Western heavy cavalry v. Turkish horse archers—each probably the best in the world at the time. This drove a lot of innovation at the tactical and also operational level.🧵
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The Crusaders’ great strength was the mounted charge: a line of heavily-armored knights lowering their lances and advancing as one. This was extremely effective especially against the more lightly-armored soldiers they encountered in the East. Image
The Turkish cavalry which formed the core of their adversaries’ armies were well suited to counter this. They fought in companies of ~70-200 men which could maneuver somewhat independently, dashing up to the enemy line and releasing arrows before pulling back. Image
Read 10 tweets

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