The Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 26, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I still don't think anyone appreciates the significance of Russian operations at Hostomel airport.

It's ~75 km from the river crossing at Chernobyl to the airport. Compare that to the doctrinal template of Soviet deep operations, which calls for airborne operations 80 km deep... ImageImage
One purpose of airborne troops in the operational depth is to exploit any fleeting opportunities. But the main reason is to disrupt the rear of forward echelons and render their position untenable.
The breakthrough around Chernobyl was crucial, the Russians' only available mobility corridor on the right bank of the Dnieper. The crossing at Chernobyl is one of the few through the Pripyat Marshes, an otherwise impassable obstacle. Image
Attacks in the operational depth—or even the threat of them—can cause forward positions to collapse.

It's not at all clear what forces the Ukrainians had at Chernobyl, but it's very likely that this, rather than a madcap dash for Kiev, was the Russians' real motive.
If reports of heavy Ukrainian vehicle losses near Hostomel are true (impossible to confirm right now), then the landing accomplished this and more by forcing a counterattack in the open, either from Kiev or from elsewhere.

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More from @bazaarofwar

Apr 27
Venice is a great case-study for the practice of grand strategy. A tight-knit oligarchy ruled a commercial empire for nearly six centuries, able to chart a course years and decades in advance.🧵
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If grand strategy is the use of a country’s resources to protect & further its interests, who defines its interests? Even *formulating* grand strategy involves political wrangling—much easier in a small state where everyone’s livelihood depends on the sea.
dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/grand-strate…
Then there’s the problem of *executing* grand strategy: tough when many sectors of national power are in private hands, but easier in an oligarchy of noble houses which are the major economic actors. Image
Read 15 tweets
Apr 20
Among the most promising military applications of AI is staff work. Tons of routine products—intel summaries, orders, etc.—can be generated much faster by machine. Does this mean staffs will reverse the historic trend and begin to shrink?

No: they’re about to explode in size.🧵 Image
In the Napoleonic era, a divisional or corps staff was never more than a dozen soldiers, whereas today it’s pushing toward a thousand for formations of about the same size. Part of a general trend in tooth-to-tail ratios. Image
The reasons are fairly obvious: modern armies are more complicated, requiring more logistical coordination, fire control, etc.

BUT. There’s a subtler effect at play too: Jevon’s paradox. Simply stated, the more efficiently a resource can be used, the greater the demand.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 15
Africa saw a lot of fighting in both World Wars, but nowhere near the scale or importance of the main theaters.

Secondary theaters are usually a drain on the weaker side, so it’s interesting to compare Germany’s performance in both. 🧵
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The North Africa campaign of WWII is the much more famous of these. It saw the exploits of three of the most famous commanders of the war—Rommel, Montgomery, and Patton—as well as some of the most dramatic back-and-forths. But what were Axis objectives there?

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For Italy, it was a primary theater, one in which to establish a Mediterranean empire.

Things were more complicated for Germany. This was never fully settled, but included:
1. Keep Italy in the war
2. Deny it as a springboard for invasion of Europe
3. Take Egypt, the Middle East Image
Read 16 tweets
Mar 22
The Crusades are fascinating in the way they pitted two very different military systems against each other: Western heavy cavalry v. Turkish horse archers—each probably the best in the world at the time. This drove a lot of innovation at the tactical and also operational level.🧵
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The Crusaders’ great strength was the mounted charge: a line of heavily-armored knights lowering their lances and advancing as one. This was extremely effective especially against the more lightly-armored soldiers they encountered in the East. Image
The Turkish cavalry which formed the core of their adversaries’ armies were well suited to counter this. They fought in companies of ~70-200 men which could maneuver somewhat independently, dashing up to the enemy line and releasing arrows before pulling back. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 6
The focus of my latest was on what it will take to keep forces mobile in the face of long-range precision fires, ubiquitous drones, and persistent ISR.

Although the particular focus was on armor, the question is just as apt for logistics and support vehicles.
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This was partly in response to an interesting RUSI paper on the future of armor in the British Army, looking at the survivability of individual platforms. Equally important is to look at how armor fits in with the entire combined-arms scheme.
static.rusi.org/heavy-armoured…
Traditionally it could be said that infantry moves between firing positions while armor fired between movements: scrambling from cover to cover vs. large bounds toward the enemy.

The same was broadly also true for larger-scale movements outside of contact.
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Read 14 tweets
Oct 16, 2023
OTD in 1813 the armies of the Sixth Coalition converged on Napoleon at Leipzig, the decisive showdown of the Napoleonic Wars.

With a nearly 2-to-1 overall advantage, Allied victory was almost assured—the real challenge had been cornering him there. Thread. Image
The Sixth Coalition was formed in March 1813 when Prussia and Sweden declared war on France, encouraged by Russia’s successes the previous year. This forced Napoleon, who was rebuilding his shattered army, to scramble to defend eastern Germany. Image
The campaign fought that spring revealed both sides’ weaknesses. Napoleon won two major battles at Lützen and Bautzen, but was unable to clinch a real victory for lack of cavalry—he had lost tens of thousands of horses on the plains of Russia.
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Read 15 tweets

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