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Feb 27 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
UPDATE: US and Europe to remove some Russian banks from SWIFT 💥

But impact on Russian oil and gas exports seems minimal

🇺🇸 US official says looking to exempt energy payments/banks
🇷🇺 Banks that facilitate fuel exports, like Gazprombank, not included

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🏢 The move is aimed at Russian banks that have already been sanctioned by the international community

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Why does the West keep avoiding sanctions on Russia’s energy sector — one of its biggest sources of revenue?

Because that would exacerbate a global energy crunch

Cutting off Russian oil and gas exports would boost the price of everything from gasoline to power bills
The situation is evolving rapidly, and all eyes will be on the details stamped out by EU officials on Sunday 👀
🏦 EU said they would act together to impose “restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions”

Russia has about $640 billion in reserves.
🇺🇸 President Joe Biden said it would take weeks or longer for the pain for sanctions to be felt, but Saturday’s move suggested Western nations wanted to accelerate that process
Nice breakdown from @annmarie
SWIFT said that while it’s a neutral global cooperative with members in 200 countries, it’s obliged to comply with EU and Belgian regulations

We are engaging with the EU “to understand the details of the entities that will be subject to the new measures”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Looking like positions are beginning to change
🇯🇵 Prime Minister Kishida says Japan will join effort by US/EU to remove some Russian banks from SWIFT, NHK reports

Japan will also freeze assets of Russian officials, including Putin

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022…

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 28
Shell announced that it will exit from equity partnerships with Russia’s Gazprom 🇷🇺 🚨

That includes its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas export facility 🚢

Shell is the latest western company to exit Russian investments amid the Ukraine conflict 👋 Image
Shell will exit from the following projects:

>> Sakhalin-2 LNG export plant
Shell has a 27.5 percent interest in
>> Salym petroleum development
>> Nord Stream 2 pipeline
>> Gydan energy development
The ball is now in the court of Japanese partners at Sakhalin II — will Mitsubishi and Mitsui be put under pressure to exit as well? 🇯🇵

Sakhalin is a key plant for Japan, providing nearly 8% of deliveries
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 28
Western energy producers begin exit from Russia
👋🇷🇺

🇬🇧 BP will dump shares in oil giant Rosneft, taking a financial hit of as much as $25 billion, and abandon other businesses in Russia
🇳🇴 Equinor will stop new investments in Russia and start exiting

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
(Equinor's move comes after Norway said it is starting a process to remove Russian assets from its $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
☢️ Swedish energy giant Vattenfall has suspended orders of Russian uranium and nuclear fuel after President Vladimir Putin’s forces attacked targets across Ukraine

group.vattenfall.com/press-and-medi…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 27
NEW: Sanctions targeting Russian energy are “certainly” on the table, said US White House Press Secretary Psaki
🇺🇸 💥 🇷🇺

“But we also want to make sure we are minimising the impact on the global market place”

(Latest US sanctions avoided oil and gas)

abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video…
Meanwhile, the UK would support G7 nations setting limits on the amount of Russian oil and gas its members could import “over time,” said Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, in a potential escalation of the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy markets

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Psaki also says US needs to reduce dependence on imported fuel

(The US imports some Russian oil and even got an LNG cargo a few years back)
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 27
Germany’s new energy plan aims to cut dependence on Russian natural gas 🇩🇪

The details:

> Build 2 new LNG terminals
> Increase gas storage volume by 2 bcm
> Purchase additional natural gas on the world markets
> Establish national coal and gas reserve

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
This is positive news for Germany’s fledging LNG import plans 🚢

Around four years after Germany announced its LNG import terminal in Brunsbüttel, there is still no date for a final investment decision. Maybe that will change now

n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Bau…
💰 Germany imports 55% of its natural gas supply from Russia

cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-p…
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 26
NEW: The US and Europe committed to remove some Russian banks from SWIFT, isolating the nation from global financial channels
🇺🇸 🇪🇺 💥 🇷🇺

🚨 Europe uses SWIFT to send payments for Russian natural gas, so a ban may significantly disrupt supplies

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
My colleague @JavierBlas makes a good point that might be exemptions just for Russian oil and gas payments
It’s still early and details are scant, but removing Europe’s ability to pay for gas could trigger a global price surge

There is only so much spare LNG, and global competition for spot cargoes has already been pretty fierce

China, Japan, Korea are eager to refill stockpiles
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 26
The EU is getting closer to supporting Russia’s expulsion from the SWIFT financial messaging system
🇪🇺 💥 🇷🇺

It’s the “nuclear” option, which would cause significant economic damage to Russia but also put global deliveries of oil and natural gas at risk

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇫🇷 🇮🇹 Opposition to the move has been decreasing, with France and Italy publicly expressing support

🇩🇪 Germany has spoken out against the idea

🤝 The move would require unanimity among the 27 EU countries
Meanwhile, across the pond…

🇺🇸 Biden administration officials are now debating whether to push for a directive from the European Union needed to ban Russia from SWIFT

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 9 tweets

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