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Christo Grozev Profile picture
@christogrozev
Feb 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Yesterday, multiple Russian state media published an extremely shocking, even for Kremlin standards, essay: it presumed "Putin solved the Ukrainian question for ever" - i.e. it presumed Russia took over Ukraine and essentially annexed it into a forever-new--old-union. But...
..this essay was apparently written for a scenario where Russian armed forces had taken over Kyiv and subjugated the country...Which didn't actually happen. So, what did state news agency do? They deleted the article, as if the plan had never been published in the first place.
(if you click on the article in @skazal_on's link you will get a non-existing page...but here's the original, archived: web.archive.org/web/2022022605…)
Ok, one can assume this was just an editorial mistake that was caught early, and the essay did not reflect the State view..EXCEPT.. this same essay was carried on other state-run channels too, like @SputnikInt : uz.sputniknews.ru/20220226/nastu…
So indeed, this was meant to toast a Greater Russia outcome that never happened. Here's the plan the author had - and apparently, was seen as endorseable by state media: Image

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More from @christogrozev

Christo Grozev Profile picture
Apr 3
In addressing the Havana Syndrome controversy, I'd stick to the old golden triangle for crime investigations: who had the Motive, Means and Opportunity - and if a suspect is found, does s/he have an Alibi (short thread)
In his February 2012 "election" platform essay, Putin wrote: Image
That same year, Putin created a military R&D program that was tasked with developing "directed energy weapons", among other "futuristic" weapons. This was clearly Putin's pet project. Image
Read 12 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Nov 30, 2023
Our friends at @agents_media used recently hacked Russian airline booking data to prove what Polish authorities have claimed all along: that "Pablo Gonzales", aka Pavel Rubtsov, is in fact a GRU operative. They found joint flight bookings between him and GRU officer Sergey Turbin
What I can add is that Sergey Turbin is not just any GRU operative (as seen from his address registration at the GRU academy); he belongs to GRU's 5th Department, i.e. the one running the illegals program. His phone number appears in call records of members of the 5th department.
In particular, he made dozens of phone calls to Andrey Ilchenko, a top-ranking GRU general who oversees the illegals program - and who also supervised the so-called "Bonanza Media" project and ran a discreditation campaign against @Bellingcat
Read 5 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023
Russian telegram channels show (graphic) video of wreckage of plane on which Prigozhin and Utkin/Wagner were registered to have flown. Still anticipating evidence that Prigozhin did fly on that plane (and didn't just send a decoy).
and a video of the falling plane with 10 passengers on board (competing narratives in Russian channels of "two S300 missiles" vs "bomb on board" circulating for now).
Prigozhin's second plane is now landing, and everyone is holding their breath if he doesn't show up alive on it. If he does (less likely than the alternative), that will be a second humiliation for Putin in 60 days.
Read 7 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Aug 19, 2023
I keep getting asked what's going to happen with PMC Wagner. My answer usually is "no one knows, not even Prigozhin or Putin", but there are a few things that can be put on the record for the time being, based both on leaks by in-fighting clans, ex-mercs, & phone data (short 🧵)
First, a reminder of the context: at the start of the war, Wagner was not invited to the table. On the assumption of a quick victory for 🇷🇺, generals at MoD and GRU set up their own PMC, both to seize control away from Prigozhin, but also to dip into the (corrupt) funding flows.
The top general who in late 2021 was put in charge of creating the new PMC (variously called Reduta or Zvezda) was Gen. Vladimir Alexeev (yes, the same one who famously sat down to negotiate with Prigozhin on the day of the abortive coup attempt)
Image
Image
Read 14 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Aug 4, 2023
Russian channels report three naval drones attacked the Crimea bridge (official reports claim drones were destroyed), but another drone reported hitting an oil tanker approx 30 miles from the bridge...which may have been the real 🎯? Image
Indeed, the Sig oil tanker that Russian channels report was hit, was in the right place near the bridge and appears to have shuttled oil between Crimea and Syria, worked for Russian armed forces and was thus a legitimate military target.
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Image
Ukrainian telegram channels publish alleged intercepts of conversation of the crew of the Sig tanker; they talk of a fully flooded engine room and an immobilized vessel.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Jul 24, 2023
Russian media report that a drone attacked buildings near Komsomolsky prospect 17 in Moscow; traffic down this avenue has been closed. What is interesting is that this address is just across from the headquarters of GRU's cyber offense (incl. FancyBear), among other mil. units Image
At this location is also the Military University () and several top-secret GRU facilities, including the head of their illegals program. If Ukraine hit that building complex, the symbolic damage to MoD/GRU will be very significant.vumo.mil.ru
Russia's MoD building, with smoke from the drone that Russia says was shot down before it reached its target. Image
Read 4 tweets

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