I think we may look back on this as the first Great Information War. Except we're already 8 years in.
The first Great Information War began in 2014. The invasion of Ukraine is the latest front. And the idea it doesn't already involve us is fiction, a lie.
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It was Putin's fury at the removal of President Yankovych in Feb 2014 that kicked everything off. Information operations were first crucial step in invasion of Crimea & Donbass. A deliberate attempt to warp reality to confuse both Ukrainians & the world.
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This was not new. The Soviets had practiced "dezinformatsiya" for years. But what was new in 2014 was technology. Social media. It was a transformative moment. "Hybrid warfare" on steroids: a golden Willy Wonka ticket to manipulate hearts & minds. Almost completely invisibly.
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But it wasn't just Ukraine. We now know Russia began another offensive in Feb 2014. Against the West. Specifically, but not exclusively, America. How do we know this? Because the FBI conducted a forensic, multi-year investigation. That almost no-one paid any attention to.
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The Mueller Report. You've heard of it. But probably as a headline about how it didn't "prove" collusion between the Kremlin & Trump campaign. We can come back to that. What it did prove - BEYOND ANY DOUBT - was that Russia attacked 2016 US election through multiple routes.
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And just *one* of the ways Russia attacked 2016 US election was via the tech platforms. Especially: Facebook. This was a military technique, it pioneered in Ukraine in 2014. By 2016, it refined, iterated & supersized these. Most brilliantly of all, they were entirely invisible
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And it wasn't just Russia. Companies such as Cambridge Analytica. Political operatives such as Manafort. Amoral opportunists such as Cummings. They learned how to exploit a platform that was totally open - anyone could do so. And totally closed - no-one could see how.
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But also it *was* Russia. That's what the Mueller Report proves. And, again, Ukraine is at centre of it all.(Read @profshaw's thread here. Note walk-on role for Arron Banks's business partner & his friend the Russian spy) 8/
In 2016, we knew none of this. Russia & other bad actors acted with impunity &, in some cases alignment. But now, through the sheer bloody hard work of academics, journalists & FBI, we do know.
But it was complex, messy, difficult. So..We brushed it all under the carpet
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We failed to acknowledge Russia had staged a military attack on the West. We called it "meddling". We used words like "interference". It wasn't. It was warfare. We've been under military attack for eight years now.
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This failure is at the heart of what is happening now in Ukraine. Because the first offensive in the Great Information War was from 2014-2022. And Putin won.
And he won by convincing us it wasn't even a war.
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We fell for it. We said it was "just ads" that "don't work anyhow". And "a bot didn't tell me to vote". Facebook is still an open threat surface. Exploited by authoritarians from Philippines to India to Brazil to Hungary. It's maybe not a world war. But the world is at war.
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Meanwhile, in Britain, we're a captured state. In America, the institutions of govt worked. Even in spite of Trump. The authorities investigated. Individuals were indicted, charged, jailed. The hostile actions of a foreign state examined & unpicked.
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(Not that it mattered.) The US media & therefore public failed to understand the real lessons of Mueller Report. And in the UK? We didn't even bother trying. We allowed Johnson's govt to sweep 2016 under the carpet. Nigel Farage. Arron Banks. Facebook. Russia. The lot.
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But it wasn't 'just ads'. It was war. And it's absolutely crucial that we now understand that Putin's attack on Ukraine & the West was a JOINT attack on both.
That began at the exact same time.
Across the exact same platforms.
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And this new front, the invasion of Ukraine, is not just about Ukraine. We are part of the plan. We have always been part of the plan. And Ukraine is not just fighting for Ukraine but for the rest of us too.
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And maybe that could be why we've failed to understand Putin's strategy in Ukraine? Because it's not just a strategy in Ukraine. It's directed at us too. And that's what makes this such a uniquely perilous moment. Not least, because we still don't understand we're at war.
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If it helps, the penny dropped for me with Skripal. Planned by the GRU - Russia's military intelligence. As was the weaponised hack-&-leak of Hillary's emails. Military doctrine carried out by military officials in military operations. Just like the one now in Ukraine.
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NEW: Why not calling a Nazi salute a Nazi salute puts us in a whole new place of danger. We have to call spades spades or what else is there? 1/ open.substack.com/pub/broligarch…
I've been a Sunday journalist for 20 years and what I'm trying to do in my newsletter is the slower take. Including what's missing from the news. And this week, that's Peter Thiel. *Where was he*??
He literally made JD Vance so was he missing from the tech bro line-up? 2/
And then there's these guys. If you want bad 2016 vibes, please come & read my dive into the straight-up weirdness of Nigel Farage & Arron Banks's inauguration party.
This is Bad Boys of Brexit #2. Only this time, the special geopolitical friends are Chinese. 3/
NEW: Meet Sergei Cristo, a Russian-born Conservative party activist turned whistleblower.
Ep 1 out today: A meeting at the Carlton Club. And the start of efforts to uncover the biggest Russian intelligence operation since the Cambridge Spy Ring. 1/ podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/epi…
Above on Apple or here on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes will be weekly from now on so please subscribe.
It's an incredible story, John Le Carre but true. But it's also vital to get UK govt to act to protect our elections 2/ open.spotify.com/episode/3VnVjm…
More on it here. Sign up for latest news inc a special event we're hosting in Feb. And if you can afford to chuck a couple of quid into the crowdfunder, we'd be grateful. This is an independent production funded by the public for the public 🙏
Hahaha. I just got a call to ask if 'I'm going to the Indie'. To be clear, this is Lord Lebedev trolling me. But the serious point is that we just lost a liberal independent newspaper. With everything that entails for both journalists & readers. 1/
This week the Scott Trust sold the Observer brand to Tortoise Media. But they're using this to slash 70 core Guardian jobs in a sleight of hand. Observer journalists are *Guardian* journalists on *Guardian* contracts.
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But TUPE legislation legally allows the Guardian to transfer any part of its company out. So, 70 journalists on Guardian contracts have a choice to make this Christmas: go to a financially struggling start-up which may or may fail in a couple of years. Or take voluntary redundancy.
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Well this is very exciting. My investigation into the Guardian’s new partner & the Observer’s new owner has just got the thumbs up from the Baron of Siberia.
I’m not entirely sure he’s familiar with my journalistic oeuvre, mind…
The Guardian is cancelling my contract after 19 years continuous employment with no pay-off so totes happy to go to the Indie to continue my investigation into Evgeny’s dad, the ex-KGB spy.
To be clear, I’m not being singled out: fully one third of Guardian & Observer staff are on either zero hours or sham ‘freelance’ contracts. The Guardian issued notice on all these this week. If you’re an employment lawyer, feel free to slide into my DMs!
This week the Guardian's owner, the Scott Trust, gifted the 233-year-old Observer to Tortoise Media.
This isn't just a dark day for journalism, it's a sign.
Meet the team.
This is Putin giving Tortoise's energy advisory board member an 'Order of Friendship' medal in 2017. 1/
Independent news is under pressure across the world. The US is already crumbling: ABC settled with Trump. WaPo pre-obeyed.
This week Guardian lost 100 journalists & one of its arms. To understand what's lost, let's start with Putin's friend: Ivan Glasenberg, ex Glencore CEO.
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Glasenberg didn't just get a medal from Putin, he sat on the board of a Russian oil company, Rosneft, chaired by one of Putin's closest allies
And here he is: on Tortoise's energy advisory board, assembled by Tortoise, founder, owner & editor, James Harding. 3/
This is what the Observer team & I were doing between strikes. Please read it because it couldn’t be more relevant. I interview Asif Kapadia about his alarming new film, 2073, with its stark warning of where Trump, Musk & Farage are taking us..
Kapadia won an Oscar for Amy, his heartbreaking film about Amy Winehouse. This is emotional too, a sci fi thriller with Samantha Morton set in the future made of fragments of the present. I tell the story of how I accidentally ended up in the film. But it’s so much more than that
It’s a chilling warning of what’s to come. The first film I’ve seen that attempts to unravel the technological crisis that underpins our democratic one. And I’m so pleased to be able to write about in Observer New Review, where I work with the best editors & designers in Britain including @JaneFerg who commissioned this & made it look beautiful. It’s where we’ve relentlessly covered the technoauthoritarian takeover that’s at the heart of Asif’s film…as part of the Guardian’s core journalistic output. While Asif’s film has journalists & journalism at its heart. I’m proud & flattered to be part of it but it also brings home what we stand to lose 😢