Thread by @harries_matthew

Some thoughts on Putin’s nuclear signalling. [THREAD]

1. The risks of nuclear escalation from Russia’s invasion are real and should be taken seriously. This has been known from the outset and is a primary reason why the West is not intervening directly with military force.

2. We should also remember that Putin’s words are designed to intimidate. It is therefore important not to add unnecessarily to public fear. We must also remember that any use of a nuclear weapon by Putin would be ruinous for him.

3. There are various different types of escalation that could potentially lead to nuclear use. We should think about them all carefully because they have a range of implications.

4a. One type of escalation is purely inadvertent: a genuine mistake or individual misjudgement that kicks off direct Russia-NATO conflict. Another type is inadvertent escalation through brinkmanship: reckless actions which were designed to deter but are misinterpreted.

4b. Then there is deliberate, rather than inadvertent, escalation. This could come, for example, via Putin deciding that certain types of Western assistance to the Ukrainian war effort constitute direct military intervention of the kind he previously said would be unacceptable.

4c. As things progress, Putin could also escalate (or threaten to escalate) as an attempt to coerce the West or escape a disastrous situation. This could become more relevant if the war goes very badly for Putin, or if sanctions and other measures cause domestic chaos in Russia.

5. We do not know for certain what motivates Putin’s nuclear signalling or what precisely “a special regime of combat duty” means (at least in public). On the latter point, some hypotheses are available. See threads by @james_acton32 @russianforces @KomissarWhipla @Joshua_Pollack

6. On Putin’s motivations, note first that he already made a clear nuclear threat to outside parties when announcing this war:

https://twitter.com/harries_matthew/status/1496767637665107968

Talking about Russia’s nuclear capacity is part of his toolbox, and he’s said he was ready to put forces on alert in 2014.

7a. What message is Putin trying to send? First, intimidation: we can hurt you, and fighting us is dangerous. Beyond that, various possibilities. It could be Russia is planning a brutal escalation in Ukraine and this is a ‘keep out’ warning to the West.

https://twitter.com/heatherwilly/status/1497933850659405824

7b. It could be a message in response to some combination of the scope of sanctions plus Western speculation about Putin’s grip on power, designed to show that Putin will not allow himself to be removed from office.

8. Final note. As commentators on this we should stay cautious. It is not possible to precisely divine Putin’s intentions or state of mind. It is also likely that there is other signalling and other actions we cannot see. And it is very early days in this war. [END]