Thread by @michaelpsenger

Thread – What the Heck is Actually Going on in Ukraine?

I don’t have all the answers, but here’s a quick thread applying my propaganda and information warfare experience to help shed light on what’s really going on in Ukraine. 1/

First, Twitter doesn’t always do nuance well, but I want to make absolutely clear that what Russia’s doing in Ukraine is abhorrent and evil. Every Ukrainian who’s chosen to fight for freedom and defend their homeland is a hero, full stop. 2/

Second, credit where it’s due: The western national security community appears to have laid a kind of diplomatic ambush against Moscow with serious economic sanctions that have left Russia isolated. This appears to be working better than expected. 3/
nytimes.com/2022/02/28/bus…

Now for the mixed bag. Part of the western response has been to unleash the weight of the west’s information machinery against Russia. This is why you’re seeing so much pro-Ukraine propaganda across all channels. 4/
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/…

One aspect of the western media operation is to promote and exempt Ukraine’s own propaganda from fact-checking—which is why we’ve suddenly seen so many of these funny Soviet-style propaganda stories: Snake Island, the Ghost of Kyiv, the Ukrainian Reaper, etc. 5/

Obviously, the cult of personality around Zelensky is another aspect of this Soviet-style propaganda operation. 6/
cnn.com/2022/02/26/eur…

Naturally, Ukraine has been somewhat exaggerating the extent of the fighting and their own military exploits, both to encourage their own citizens and to garner more material support from the west. 7/

Russia appears to have anticipated this, which is why they’ve put such lackluster effort into the information front. 8/

The fairly explicit goal of the western information operation is to convince ordinary Ukrainians to take up arms against the Russians. This goal has been stated by leading foreign policy think tanks. This goal is morally murky so I’ll have no part in it. 9/

As usual, Xi is loving every minute of this. 10/

China’s role is a wildcard. They abstained from the security council vote. It remains to be seen how they’ve been using their clandestine influence network and propaganda army. But I’m sure they’re putting it to good use. 11/
pcmag.com/news/pro-china…

As western think tanks have stated, what they really want to is pull China away from Russia to preserve trade ties between the west and China. In typical think tank fashion, they’ll never let an opportunity to kiss Xi’s arse go to waste. 12/

This is part of the reason western elites are giving so much support to Ukraine and want ordinary Ukrainians to fight back so badly, weakening Russia so that they can continue to trade with China. 13/

Also, the war is obviously a useful distraction from growing popular anger over the indefensible response to COVID. 14/

Some questions remain. 1. It’s obviously in Ukraine’s interest to exaggerate the conflict and their military exploits, both to encourage their people and garner western support. How much are they really committed to the fight against Russia? 15/
bbc.com/news/60554910

Question 2. Is Putin even trying to win this war? He’s stated that it’s simply a “special military operation” against western interests and officials. A purge of this kind is no less evil and barbaric, but there might be a kernel of truth to what Moscow is saying. 16/

3. Given Russia’s lackluster military and information efforts, has Putin struck a deal with China and/or Ukraine that we don’t yet know about? That would be expected and understandable for a buffer state in Ukraine’s position. 17/