Thread by @cnnphilippines

In this country, where voters are more swayed by candidates' popularity than their platforms, do debates really matter? Or are they futile attempts to bask in what's left of democracy's former glory?

This is #PoliticsAsUsual with @piahontiveros.

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Does performance in elections debates have impact on voter survey rankings?

OCTA's Guido David: When we conduct surveys, these show that a lot of Filipinos don't actually know a lot of the other candidates, and this is the time for us to discover those we don't know about.

Political analyst Dindo Manhit: What is unique in the 2022 elections is really the rise of social media as the second source of information as voters decide. Studies have shown that it has even overtaken radio.

Political analyst Manhit: I think former senator Bongbong Marcos has realized that there is a way to communicate directly to voters, avoiding either the discipline of fact-checking or the control of mainstream news.

OCTA fellow David: If we're looking at past election results, sometimes there is still a leading candidate even until mga February or even March who can still be overtaken. (1/2)

OCTA fellow David: In fact, nung 2016 (presidential elections), Senator Grace Poe was leading at that time. But of course, the margin was close. (2/2)

OCTA fellow David: We're looking also at VP Leni's numbers for her vice presidential candidacy in 2016. She was also, I think, behind two other candidates at this time of the year... The point is that there could still be some changes.

Political analyst Manhit: The reality is that after a few months of campaign, campaigners should realize that they have failed to penetrate some voters. In the case of VP Leni, maybe voters have grown to even 20%, we've seen those numbers. But can they go beyond that?

Political analyst Manhit: I really see a possibility of a Marcos landslide or a very tight race that we will see.

OCTA fellow David on voter surveys: How representative is this of the voting population? Because we can take 1,000 people and survey them, but if they're from the same demographics, this will not project to the voting population. (1/2)

Earlier, statisticians warned against surveys with questionable methodologies, such as "kalye surveys," that are making the rounds on social media. (2/2)