Thread by @Anjyoun

I haven't commented because I have little to add, but as someone deeply interested in the history of cold war politics and military history, I've been watching Russia's invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 obsessively. For what it's worth, here are my observations so far, compiled over lunch:

- For the Russian gov't, the cold war never ended and the west was wrong to think so
- Putin is not crazy, but getting old and gambling
- He hinks the west will back down if threatened
- Ukrainians will not roll over and take it though
- (Belarus is a non-autonomous vassal state)

- Donbas aside, conflict's goals are to "denazify" and "demilitarize"
- Says corrupt "gangsters" run Ukraine
- Russia fears Ukraine joining NATO and desires a buffer
- They want a "neutral" Ukraine to be that buffer
- Now saying there are WMDs? Implies a "Cuban Missile Crisis"

- The Russian people did not expect nor want this war
- Russian gov't spin is trying to portray the "special operation" as peacekeeping
- While I believe Russia doesn't want to occupy Ukraine, they do want to install a puppet
- This has been brewing since the fall of the USSR

- RU military is a logistical nightmare and its best toys (T-14, Su-57, etc) aren't fieldable
- Geared for open war not precision = low effectiveness
- Planning is fatally optimistic
- Can't win if you don't brief or motivate
- Can't win without air support
- Javelins work great!

- While conscripts are numerous, spetsnaz / special forces are tougher to replace
- Many presumably went down in IL-76s and helicopter transports in the attempt to create an early foothold in/around Kyiv
- Even spetsnaz need air support, fuel, and food to keep going...

- Sanctions do more damage than you'd think (possibly more than sending troops)
- Protesting in Russia is brave work (when troops/police learn they'd be better off being paid in toilet paper, however...)
- Russia is now uninvestable
- It really is possible to roll a natural 1 IRL

- The Russian government appears to use "Nazi" to refer to the west - "Old enemy" label for propaganda
- The info war is not going Russia's way, assets are being exposed
- Doublethink / doublespeak is not working for Russia at this time
- US intelligence is scary accurate...

- It's not like Russia didn't oppose America's recent adventures, the west's response is not hypocritical
- More people sympathize with Ukraine - no valid cassus belli for current operations
- If Russia stopped at Donbas/Luhansk, they might have "gotten away with it" Crimea-style

- There is irony in invading Ukraine because they wanted to join NATO post-Georgia for their defence against exactly this
- This is also pushing other non-aligned nations closer to NATO for obvious reasons, so... Again, congrats on that critical miss there, Putin.

- India, China, Brazil, etc are/were slow to revoke support due to BRICS, defence contracts, etc
- I don't know what to make of reports of Indians and other foreigners being prevented from leaving Ukraine given this
- Info war is ongoing and Putin needs whatever allies he can get

- There will be a reckoning for Russia one way or another - This will not end cleanly for Putin
- The Ghost of Kyiv may or may not be real, but I believe in the spirit regardless
- I do not believe we are staring down nuclear war unless NATO or the EU are drawn into the conflict

- Putin's advisors clearly painted a rosier picture than the reality
- Ukraine definitely is a real country (and there is historic precedent for it, as much as Putin et al claim it's not)
- This conflict is an absolutely senseless way to "right" a "national humiliation"

- Russia has already been humiliated in this
- Ukraine, whether it ultimately stands or falls militarily, will not bend to Putin's will
- If Kyiv is a preview, it'll take a while to fall
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whatever his faults, is a capable and charismatic wartime leader

- Misinfo tried to prevent refugees from reaching Poland early on
- Civilian buildings and vehicles are being lit up
- Russian civilians are not in the line of fire, but are suffering - Especially the poor
- Basically fuck this war and fuck the guys who started it

"If Russia stops fighting, there would be no war. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine" is absolutely true - Even if Russia does not occupy Ukraine, if you look at Belarus, the goal of installing a puppet is no different. I wonder how Belarusians feel right now.

TL;DR Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦 Russian warship, go fuck yourself. I'm glad the defenders of Snake Island are alive to see how those words defined this conflict.

IMO if you don't stand with Ukraine, sit down instead of standing with Putin. I hope the Russian people feel the same way.

Russian elites still think they're enemies with the west - While the whole world has (had) moved on. Would the EU be buying Russian gas if it hadn't? Would sanctions breaking western ties be working?

Whatever happens, we're watching a historic moment that will affect everyone.

Please note: I am not an analyst or a professional in this field, this is just my own perspective as of today. Some of this may be misinfo I've bitten off on. I previously thought they'd stop at recognizing/occupying Donbas/Luhansk.

I'm just a fat tech geek from America's hat.

I probably won't respond or talk more about this - I don't want to get bogged down in it. I know what happens whenever I tweet something controversial, and there are paid trolls actively targeting serious threads. Maybe I'll do some one-offs riffing on it like Linus or something.

My advice to those reading: Learn to recognize and ignore attempts to distract and divide. There's a war for your attention and your very understanding of the world. It's been going for years, but is intensifying now that there's an "IRL" war on. Be careful out there.

In particular, Putin's playbook is "Foundations of Geopolitics", the contents of which should seem very familiar to anyone who has been watching world events: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundatio…

"Both sides" of the political divide are being played in the west, per the book. Stay vigilant.